New Delhi: Canada’s allegations against the Indian government – that its agents were likely behind the killing of Canadian Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil – has elicited responses not only from India but also from governments of Western countries, especially the Five Eyes grouping.How are these goings on likely to hurt India’s position and credibility on the world stage? The G20 glow was hyped domestically to bolster the BJPs’ domestic politics too in an election year. But has it been snuffed out by a post-Canada low?The global press has things to say on how the hint of “transnational repression” may cast a shadow on the Modi government and India’s global reputation.‘Warning to Western leaders’Now that the allegations against the Indian government are public, Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times highlights how in the India-Canada episode there is a “warning” for Western countries on dealing with leaders of increasingly authoritarian countries.“This episode should be a warning to Western leaders, including [US President Joe Biden], who have fawned over Modi. The last couple of decades of travails with Vladimir Putin should have taught us something about the difficulties of trying to reform nationalist authoritarians, or the perils of granting them impunity.”“In this case, though, Modi isn’t showing any sign of investigating and seems to be trying to profit politically, by inflaming the prickly nationalism that has carried his career forward so far.He portrays himself as defender of India’s Hindu majority from Muslim jihadis or Sikh separatists — or sanctimonious Western imperialists — and this dust-up might actually help him in next year’s Indian elections.”Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden at the White House, in Washington, DC on June 22, 2023. Photo: PIB.‘Would R&AW really do something like this?’An analysis by French news network France 24 examines whether India’s foreign intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), would carry out a targeted assassination on Canadian soil. The article first considers the fact that R&AW’s domain is primarily confined to India’s neighbouring countries and that the agency is known for ‘influence operations’ rather than targeted killings.But more importantly, it considers the fact that its operations are constrained by who it is accountable to:“”We must not forget that in India, the intelligence services report directly to the Prime Minister’s Office,” said Dheeraj Paramesha Chaya, an Indian intelligence specialist at the University of Hull.Sending agents to assassinate their target in a foreign country is therefore all the more risky for the Indian government.“If the operation is discovered, it is the direct responsibility of the head of government that is questioned, and the diplomatic crisis is assured,” summarises this specialist.”Watch: Is the Modi Govt Guilty of Assassinating a Canadian Citizen? RAW Ex-Chief Responds to TrudeauOther experts believed it was possible for R&AW to carry out such an operation – and for them, the key to this lies with the occupant of that very office the intelligence agency reports to:“For experts interviewed by France 24, the main reason for the emergence of a more enterprising Indian spy agency on the international scene is Narendra Modi. It would be he who, for domestic political reasons, pushed his spies to be more aggressive. “They already had the means to assassinate targets abroad and the prime minister offered them the license to kill,” [Paul McGarr] said.“The head of government is staging “a much more macho way of doing politics and this translates into more risk-taking in the conduct of clandestine operations under the pretext of ‘better protecting national interests’,” says this specialist from King’s College London.”‘Modi cannot afford to be seen in the same league as Putin’Writing for Foreign Policy, Sushant Singh says Modi cannot afford to be seen in the same league as Putin – who is also linked with assassinations on foreign soil – especially if he maintains that India is a vishwaguru.“In recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin remains the only leader known to order an assassination in a Western democracy, when Russian operatives fatally poisoned a Russian defector in London in 2018. Pakistan’s intelligence agencies were allegedly behind the mysterious killings of Baloch separatist leaders in Sweden and Canada in 2020…Whatever the predilections of India’s security establishment, Modi cannot afford to be seen in the same league as Putin and Pakistan’s rogue generals—certainly not as he proclaims India to be a Vishwaguru, or a teacher-master to the world.”Singh writes that:“Many Hindu nationalists have framed these alleged actions as evidence of a strong state under Modi. Perhaps they forget that Israel undertakes such operations in countries such as Iran, which have little international credibility and few allies. By contrast, Canada is a member of the G-7, a NATO founder, and part of the exclusive Five Eyes intelligence alliance.”He also writes,“If India continues to look at the world through the lens of its intelligence operatives rather than holding them accountable for their failures, it runs the risk of going down a very dark path.”Also Read: Canada-India Tensions Complicate Western Efforts to Rein in ChinaIf allegations true, Western countries ‘will struggle to keep quiet’The Financial Times has run a ‘big read’ titled “The West’s Modi Problem”, which says that though Western countries have not strongly responded to past allegations against India – such as those regarding Modi’s intensifying clampdown on civil society and the press – things may change if Canada’s allegations are found to be true.“India’s western democratic allies have mostly kept their comments about these concerns compartmentalised — aired in brief remarks or behind closed doors — in the broader interest of a valued strategic relationship. But if Canada’s allegations of an Indian state-backed, extraterritorial assassination are found to be true, they will struggle to keep quiet.”Unlike some other commentators, Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at Rand Corporation, says it is Canada that may emerge on top if relations between it and India continue to nosedive.“I’m concerned that if the India-Canada imbroglio continues to escalate, then we could see western nations begin to choose sides, and it is likely to be Ottawa [that wins], placing New Delhi’s partnerships with countries like the US, Australia and UK in greater jeopardy … The rationale would be that Modi and his BJP government are simply untrustworthy.”‘Trudeau facing cold reality’Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Photo: Eurasia Group/Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0.But what situation does Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau find himself in, given that it is he who first put the allegations against the Indian government in public?According to the BBC, as far as the world stage is concerned, Trudeau faces a “cold reality” as he grapples with his countries’ interests being weighed against those of India, which finds itself growing in importance internationally.“In the days since the prime minister [Trudeau] made the explosive announcement, his allies in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance provided seemingly boilerplate public statements, all stopping far short of full-throated support…The problem for Canada, experts told the BBC, is that its interests currently pale in comparison to India’s massive strategic importance…The piece refers to a host of domestic issues that Trudeau has been grappling with over the last few months. The BBC added that his approval ratings have dropped to a three-year low of 63%.However, there does seem to be a silver lining for Trudeau:“And it can’t have hurt that Mr Trudeau finished his week standing side by side with another ally – and an even bigger celebrity – Ukrainian President Volodymyr [Zelenskyy]. For a day, at least, Mr Trudeau seemed to be in very good company.”This article was edited after publication with additional information.
