Delimitation is fast becoming the most contentious issue between the ruling BJP and the Opposition, with the fear of losing representation in the Lok Sabha gripping almost all except the so-called BIMARU states.The Opposition wants the present status quo pertaining to Lok Sabha seats to be maintained until 2060, and even outliers such as the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) have joined the movement, accepting an invitation from the DMK’s M.K. Stalin to attend a meeting on March 22 to plan joint action.Consider the anomaly. While some of the poor performers in population control will double their present tally in the Lok Sabha after delimitation, those with a good record will lose seats. The South Indian states are not the only sufferers. Among the victims of delimitation will be Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, as also the states in the Northeast. Modi-Shah regime destroyed the very idea of political dialogue and national consensusArticle 82 of the Constitution mandates conducting a delimitation of the Lok Sabha constituencies after every decennial census. This was done by the rules in 1952, 1963 and 1973, and the strength of the House was revised accordingly.In 1976, when the process for the next revision was to begin, many states argued that they would lose representation in Parliament because they had performed well on population control and said they should not be punished for their good work. It was then agreed that delimitation would be put off until 2000 to give the laggard states time to catch up. This was done through the 42nd amendment of the Constitution.In 2002, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government extended the time until after 2026.Unfortunately, the “BIMARU” states – the acronym for Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh – continue to lag on population control even today. While the total fertility rate (TFR) is as low as 1.7 in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, and 1.8 in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, it is 3 in Bihar, 2.35 in Uttar Pradesh, and 2 in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.Narendra Modi’s advent in 2014 changed the dynamic. First, the government did not even conduct the census in 2021. Such a thing had never happened in the past, not even during World War. Second, and with wider implications, the Modi-Shah regime destroyed the very idea of political dialogue and national consensus that, by and large, had been India’s national policy.This was followed not just by predecessors such as Manmohan Singh, P.V. Narasimha Rao or Inder Kumar Gujral; even Indira Gandhi, who is often identified with centralisation of power, and Modi’s own party senior, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, would call all-party meetings and meetings of the National Integration Council for greater harmony. Modi, instead, adopted confrontation and intimidation as a political strategy to retain his dominant position.Also Read: Why the Future of Indian Democracy Hangs on a Prudent and Pragmatic Approach to DelimitationThe whole dictionary and grammar of politics has changed since 2002 when the opposition and the ruling party could arrive at a consensus to give the laggard states another chance to catch up with the rest on the total fertility rate. The polity is now deeply divided. And the early indications are that the current regime is determined to push ahead with delimitation for its narrow partisan ends.BJP leader Nishikant Dubey, an aspiring insider, has linked the opposition to delimitation to the fear of losing elections. Union home minister Amit Shah has said “no state would lose any seats”, trying perhaps to assuage fears. However, Shah has carefully avoided assuring the nation that no state or region would lose its share of representation in Parliament.How south India’s representation could fall with delimitationOpposition leaders interpret this to mean that Modi and Shah are planning to raise the total number of Lok Sabha seats. To understand, one needs to look at two different sets of projections.The first is based on retaining the present strength of the Lok Sabha and apportioning representation to each state in accordance with the next census. In such a scenario, the “BIMARU” states will gain 30 seats – Uttar Pradesh 11, and Bihar 10 – and all others will lose seats. Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh will lose 8 seats each, Karnataka 2 seats, and Punjab, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh will lose one seat each. Kerala, the best performer in population control, will lose as much as 40 per cent of its representation – going down from 20 seats at present to 12.The other projection, by Carnegie Endowment’s Milan Vaishnav and Jamie Hintson, is based on raising the total seats in the Lok Sabha to 848 and then dividing them according to the 2026 census. According to this projection, and as Amit Shah promised, no state will lose seats. But all except the “BIMARU” states will lose a share of their representation.In the 848-member House, Uttar Pradesh’s seat tally is projected to rise from 80 at present to 143, Bihar’s from 40 to 79, Rajasthan’s from 25 to 50, and Madhya Pradesh’s from 29 to 52. The four states, which are also the main strongholds of the BJP, will together gain 150 seats to reach a tally of 324. This will give the ruling party a big advantage in future elections.The rest of India will have reduced representation in the Lok Sabha. Tamil Nadu, which has 39 seats in the 543-member House, is projected to have only 49 in the 848-member House; Karnataka’s seat count will change from 28 to 41; Punjab’s from 13 to 18; and Uttarakhand’s from five to seven. The number of seats for Kerala, Himachal Pradesh and the states in the Northeast will remain unchanged in the larger House.Manish Tewari, the MP from Chandigarh, said that like the south, the entire north will lose representation in the Lok Sabha. “Northern states, already disadvantaged, will become even more minuscule as a percentage of a bigger Lok Sabha. The delimitation will only benefit the laggard states that did not practise population stabilisation,” he said.Former Union minister P. Chidambaram says that with 129 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the south now has a representation of 23.76 per cent. If the strength of the Lok Sabha is raised to 888, which is the seating capacity of the new building, and seats are redetermined according to the 2026 population projection, the south’s representation will fall to 14.53 per cent.Shashi Tharoor has asked: “What happens if the Hindi-speaking states suddenly get a two-thirds majority for constitutional amendments? Will the South feel disenfranchised?” As of now, a two-thirds majority might look far-fetched, but the question does reflect the fear of marginalisation of an entire region.According to United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, India’s population will peak at 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before it begins declining. In the present context, the UN report raises two valid questions.Delimitation will create two classes of Indian statesFirst, if India’s population, as the UN study predicts, will stabilise by 2060 or thereabouts and then start declining, why should we now rush into a delimitation? Why cannot we wait another 30 years or so and avoid the federal strife and disaffection? Moreover, what about the population rise during the next 25 years causing even further imbalance?Second, there can be a reverse outcry when the population declines after 2060, as predicted by the demographers. This will provoke similar protests against an ‘inflated’ Lok Sabha and imbalances in representation in an entirely different or unpredictable political scenario.In this context, the American experience is worth consideration since the US, too, is a federal democratic republic. The US House of Representatives has capped its seats at 435 since 1913 although the country’s population has increased from 9.4 crore in 1911 to an estimated 34 crore in 2024.For a decade, the opposition state governments have been complaining of a financial squeeze and political and cultural siege. Distortions in financial devolution, allegations of discrimination and favouritism in funds allocation, and contortion in GST collection and transfer to opposition states have become the order of the day.This has led to more than two dozen protests and dharnas by the MPs in the House and outside. State ministers from Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Punjab held joint protests in Delhi against discrimination in allocation and disbursal of drought and flood relief funds. States have also been forced to seek remedy from the Supreme Court over a dozen times since 2019. Punjab filed a suit against non-reimbursement of funds , Kerala against “interference” , Tamil Nadu seeking flood relief funds, and Karnataka against discrimination in devolution of central funds.The Raj Bhavans, Election Commission, UGC, central schemes, programmes like NEP with strings attached, CAG reports concentrating on opposition states, minimising financial allocations and release of funds to them, parliamentary panels, legislation such as the waqf bill – an all-out, coordinated offensive is on against political rivals, using every available instrument of the state.While there has been some let-up in the misuse of enforcement agencies such as the ED and CBI after the Supreme Court’s strictures, the harassment continues in different ways, and the statutory watchdog bodies such as the Central Information Commission and the Central Vigilance Commission appear comatose.The Narendra Modi regime’s push for delimitation will create two classes of Indian states: the elite states of middle India, which will function as the country’s real decision makers, and the marginalised rest.P. Raman is a veteran journalist.
