The Bihar assembly election has proved to be interesting due to the close neck-to-neck fight between the Mahagathbandan (MGB) consisting of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and the Left parties, and the National Democratic Alliance, made up of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Janata Dal (United) and smaller parties, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), Vikassheel Insaan Party and the Lok Jan Shakti Party of Chirag Paswan, which despite claiming to be part of the NDA, has cut into the vote share of the JD(U) in an effort to diminish the image of Nitish Kumar. After a long period of counting, the results show that the NDA, despite the exit polls, has prevailed with 125 seats, the MGB closely behind gaining 110. Within the NDA, however, the BJP has pulled ahead with 74 seats emerging as the bigger partner, the JD(U) sliding down to 43. The smaller parties within the NDA, the HAM and the VIP obtained four seats each.The RJD did emerge as the single largest party with 77 seats, but the Congress obtained a mere 19 seats. In fact, the Left parties performed better, of the 29 seats contested, it won 16, with the CPI (ML) winning 12 of them. The AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi effectively cut into the seats of the MGB in the Seemanchal region by dividing the Muslim vote. The last phase of the counting proved controversial, the margin of victory in many seats being very narrow. The RJD has alleged that returning officers have given in to pressure from the ruling alliance and not been fair, but the EC has held that all procedures were carried out correctly. However, the results do not reflect ground realities in Bihar today. Despite the victory of the NDA, what is significant in this election is the emergence and key role played by Tejashwi Yadav in the election campaign, and the tough challenge he was able to throw at the NDA.Also read: The Numbers Hide a Political Churning in BiharAt the beginning of the campaign, most observers had held that the NDA of Nitish Kumar and the BJP would win comfortably; the RJD without the presence of Lalu Prasad Yadav was not viewed as a serious contender. However, closer to the election, Tejashwi successfully turned the narrative in his favour, evident from the huge, enthusiastic crowds that turned up for his rallies. Caste and Development: New EquationsWhile analysis of this complex election, and its impact on politics in Bihar will take time. The emergence of Tejashwi as a young, popular leader, and the better than expected showing of the RJD, which has emerged with 75 seats as the single largest party ahead of the BJP, points to seminal changes in the social and political arena of Bihar. While caste has been recognised as the most important issue that has traditionally determined voting and election results in Bihar. This does not seem true this time; the election has been described as ‘caste-plus’. The reasons lie in significant, longer-term developments in the Hindi heartland in the 2000s, including in Bihar. While, the 1990s were a period when identity politics drove electoral and mass politics, evident in the rule of Lalu Prasad. In the 2000s, the waning of identity politics led to a new equation between caste and development which is reflected in electoral politics. Caste, and identity alignments based on it, had been weakening since the late 1990s, and it was no longer the only factor that determines electoral politics, a rising aspiration for material advancement and improvement becoming evident.Bihar is a backward state and economic reform compared to states in southern and western India, did not lead to higher growth. Regimes in the 1990s and early 2000s were unable to put forth effective policies for development.Chief minister Nitish Kumar during the last leg of the campaign for the assembly elections, in Araria district, November 4, 2020. Photo: PTIOn the other hand, the 2000s witnessed the emergence of a small, educated, assertive, younger generation, together with aspiration for upward mobility among the poorer sections. These shifts created a desire for economic advancement among large sections of the population no longer happy with what came to be described as “Jungle Raj” under Lalu Prasad. This was evident in the victory of Nitish Kumar together with the BJP in 2015, obtaining 206 seats, reducing the RJD to 22. The development work undertaken by Nitish during this period particularly in building roads and infrastructure and improving law and order won him support. His second term as chief minister in 2015 with the support of the RJD and subsequent shift to the NDA in 2017, continuing until 2020, has not been viewed as positively by the electorate. While still viewed as ‘Sushasan Babu’ during the early part of this period, the lack of improvement in education, problems in his prohibition policy, allegations of corruption and lack of investment and jobs, led to disillusionment. In sum, while some development did take place it was slower; but Nitish had heightened aspirations, which in a backward state like Bihar, he could not fulfil in a short period.Against this backdrop of rising aspirations for material advancement, in the present election two issues have been important: unemployment and migration; both of which had by all reports created tremendous anger within the electorate. The two are related as both lead to a search for livelihood outside Bihar. An educated, younger generation is upset that despite having earned a degree they had to go to Delhi, Mumbai or Bangalore to get a job in the IIT sector, business or industry. Similarly, the uneducated, often backward or ‘lower’ caste, workers had to migrate to cities to obtain jobs as construction labour or in the service industry, mostly in the informal sector. The COVID-19 pandemic led to reverse migration and a rush back home in March 2020 due the severe lockdown. Media reports show that by June 2020, over 67 lakh migrants returned to 116 districts in six states from urban centres. Of them, about 44 lakh, or nearly two-thirds, returned to 53 districts. Bihar topped the six states with 23.6 lakh returning to 32 districts, followed by UP with 17.48 lakh to 31 districts.Migrants from Gujarat deboard a train as they arrive at Danapur railway station in Patna, May 10, 2020. Photo: PTIAs no jobs were available in Bihar towns or villages, apart from limited employment under MREGA, most remained unemployed, and as timely government aid did not reach many, hungry and desperate. While some of the skilled and semi-skilled labour has returned to their former jobs as industries have gradually begun to open-up, unskilled labour has not been as successful in finding jobs in the cities and remains unemployed and unable to send home money to their families. During the campaign, both the educated unemployed, and the migrant workers who had returned home, agreed that Nitish Kumar built roads and provided them electricity and drinking water. But as some pointed out, roads are of not much use if they do not lead to an office, industry or institution that gives them jobs. It is suitable employment and a living wage that the voter is demanding today. It is interesting that surveys show that the migrants did not blame the central government or PM Modi for their plight. They argued that Modi had sent funds and food to Bihar but it was the local administration and state government, which was corrupt and lax in giving them the aid sent for them. The migrants are angry that Nitish Kumar did not look after them when they lost their jobs and walked home hungry from their place of employment to their homes in Bihar. They point out that the UP CM sent buses to Delhi to take home labour belonging to the state, and by the time trains were provided many were already walking or unable to catch them or, some had even reached home spending their savings. Modi remains a popular figure, untouched by the disaster the COVID-19 pandemic wrought on their lives, a ‘doer’ and messiah, working hard to look after their needs. This helps explains the better performance of the BJP and the lesser number of seats obtained by the JD(U). Rise of Tejashwi, future potentialIt is in this context that the rise of Tejashwi assumes significance as he represents a younger generation, who see in him a new leader who understands their hopes and needs. His promise of 10 lakh jobs, half of them in the government raised high hopes and led to enthusiastic crowds at his short, 13 to 15 daily rallies.Also read: NDA May Have Retained Bihar, But Tejashwi Yadav Is the New Star of Indian PoliticsHe spoke entirely about local issues and needs, which the crowd could relate with and respond. The Manifesto of the MGB reflected the demands and needs of the people such as jobs, better education, inflation and better governance. His description of the RJD, as no longer an ‘MY’ party of Muslims and Yadavs, but as an A-to-Z party including all sections of society, also appealed. He did not criticise the PM or central policies, or take up issues such as the Ram Mandir or Article 370 in the context of Jammu and Kashmir. Nor did he use the patron-client style of the Congress in its heyday promising garibi hatao. Rather, he deployed a new narrative different from that of the Mandal period, constantly emphasising the need to move from social to economic justice. However, despite the interest Tejashwi aroused, leading to large crowds, it does seem that he was not able to convince his audience that he could fulfil their aspirations and provide them good governance. The constant refrain of BJP leaders that victory of the RJD would mean return of the Jungle Raj of the Lalu period, did not help particularly among the upper castes and the older generation.Another important reason is the continuing popularity of Modi and his last minute campaign rallies, which often make a difference. Modi’s emphasis, that a ‘double engine’ sarkar would help Bihar, proved useful. Equally important, was the poor image of the Congress which has not had much of a presence in Bihar for a long time; its under-performance effectively pulled down the MBG tally. Consequently, the electorate remained divided between the BJP, JD(U) and the RJD and Congress, creating a close fight between the NDA and the MGB. Yet, in the words of Tejashwi during a campaign interview that “age is on my side” means that he has time to mobilise and create greater support for himself and his party, and emerge as an important leader in Bihar.The Bihar election provides two takeaways for all political parties. Caste alignments by themselves no longer attract the electorate, material advancement has become important. Tejashwi’s absolute focus on economic issues and local needs during the campaign almost propelled the RJD to victory. The NDA, whether under Nitish or a new leader, will have to meet the rising expectations of the people who are learning to punish parties that do not perform. A second takeaway is that strong and effective alliances are needed in the states to take on the challenge of the Modi-led BJP juggernaut, even where the BJP may not have strong state level leaders. In sum, the Bihar election has many pointers for political parties and their leaders attempting to hold on to their regional strongholds, the next test being West Bengal. Sudha Pai, a former Professor of JNU, was the Rector (Pro-Vice-Chancellor) from 2011 to 2015.
