Though sudden, the announcement by the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) to support Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government on two key issues in the Parliament should not surprise anyone.In announcing its twin decisions – to vote against the no-confidence motion tabled by the opposition against Modi, and to vote in favour of his government’s push to pass the Delhi services bill – the Odisha patriarch has given yet more proof of the political pragmatism that his party regularly practises to near perfection.Known to be ideologically neutral, Patnaik has always been a shrewd political operator. And in rallying behind Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Parliament less than a year ahead of the next general elections, he has simply ensured that his long uninterrupted reign as the Odisha chief minister continues, minus any serious opposition.No big political decisions are taken in a vacuum, and it can be safely presumed that the decision by the BJD – long suspected to be BJP’s B-team – to extend support earlier this week came only after intense consultations and calculations.What could they be?Odisha holds simultaneous elections to Lok Sabha and the state assembly. In 2024, the state would elect 21 new members of parliament and vote to elect a new state government. It therefore gets more important for Patnaik who is eyeing another chief ministerial term.As someone who has never shown any interest in assuming a larger role at the national level – unlike Modi or even West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee or Bihar’s Nitish Kumar – Patnaik’s politics has largely revolved around preserving his own position as the chief minister. For him, winning parliamentary seats is welcome, but only incidental.That clearly being his priority, the BJD’s decision to support Modi in parliament serves his immediate political interest. It might have reinforced popular suspicion of BJD being BJP’s B-team, but the damage it does to BJP’s credibility as Odisha’s principal opposition party is significantly more. In popular perception – as reflected in opinion being currently voiced on social media – the BJP is non-serious about unseating Patnaik and is covertly in collusion with him.Though awkward for both parties, the unwritten proximity between the two promises political dividends for both. Patnaik remains popular and prospects of him being voted out next year look remote. An enfeebled BJP – its credibility as Odisha’s main opposition compromised and its cadre confused – makes Patnaik’s continuity as chief minister more certain. For all practical purposes, it could well be a friendly contest in Odisha the next time round.The BJP too stands to gain. It is likely that the party has read the popular mood in Odisha and has come to accept that it has little realistic chance of defeating Patnaik. It has therefore set its sight on post-2024 results with Lok Sabha numbers in mind. Should it tally decline – as predicted by some political pundits – it would need to compensate for them. Patnaik with his MPs would come in handy then to ensure BJP’s majority and Modi’s continuation in power. To give up on its ambitions in Odisha would only be a small price to be paid for achieving its larger political goals.In any which way, this suits Patnaik. Though professing to be equidistant from polarising political combinations such as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the newly formed INDIA, Patnaik has always sided with whoever happened to be in power at the Centre – right from AB Vajpayee to Manmohan Singh to Modi. Free of national ambitions, he had no political compulsion to oppose anyone. But being on the side of the one in power had benefits: it meant no CBI and ED and a relatively free run in his home turf.That Patnaik prefers to be a ‘covert’ ally without giving up on his pretension of not being for or against any political group makes perfect sense. Joining the opposition ranks would invite the BJP’s wrath. And officially siding with the BJP would open up the opposition space in Odisha for parties such as the Congress. He instead favours having a party he can influence as his principal opposition. To keep friends close, but enemies like the BJP closer seem to be Patnaik’s guiding principle. And he has been very successful at that.Ruben Banerjee is the former Editor-in-Chief of Outlook, and the author of the book Naveen Patnaik.
