Aizawl: Metres away from the Mizoram assembly stands the Aijal Club. About a hundred supporters of the Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) stand on either side of the road. A lone banner flashing a mug shot of Narendra Modi seeking votes for the November 28 assembly polls in the northeastern state is tied to the railings of the club.A lane away, local media persons crowd the office of the Mizoram Journalists Association (MJA), miffed at the BJP for denying an audience with its national poll mascot while only a Doordarshan team, brought from Delhi, is given entry to the venue.Also read: In Mizoram Assembly Polls, Nine Candidates Are Contesting From Multiple SeatsLater, speaking to reporters, representatives of the Young Mizo Association (YMA), Mizo Zirlai Pawl (MZP), Mizo Upa Pawl and the Joint Action Committee for Boundary Dispute said they submitted a few memorandums to Prime Minister Narendra Modi stating a variety of demands – from establishing a Boundary Commission to solve the border dispute between Assam and Mizoram to reinstating the state’s principal secretary ousted at the behest of the Election Commission of India (ECI) a few weeks ago, which triggered a massive protest in the capital city.‘Meghalaya model’In a closely contested election, where the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to conquer the last bastion of its arch rival, the Congress, in the Northeast, the PM’s meeting with the top civil society groups, five days before the polling day, holds considerable significance. Though the party has fielded candidates in 39 of the 40 assembly seats, it is a foregone conclusion among local political observers that it won’t be in a position to form a state government on its own.So the buzz in the air is, the party’s spin doctor for the region, the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) convenor Himanta Biswa Sarma, along with Ram Madhav, the BJP national secretary in charge of the region, would make every effort to try and implement the ‘Meghalaya model’ of government formation in Mizoram. Effectively, this entails taking advantage in case of a hung assembly and become a prominent player in the numbers game even with just two or three seats under its name.The state’s main opposition, the Mizo National Front (MNF) is a NEDA member, as was the National People’s Party (NPP) in Meghalaya – which helped the BJP to make a backdoor entry into Meghalaya government with just two seats in a 60-member assembly. That it is in power at the Centre worked immensely in its favour in a north-eastern state dependent on central funding.According to some observers in Aizawl, the prime minister’s meeting with the Church-backed civil society groups on November 23 – mainly the YMA (which has a considerable say in Mizo society) – is only to crack open an emergency door for the party into the community and facilitate the ‘Meghalaya model’ in case of a hung assembly. The common refrain in the state is, none of the Mizo dominated parties would prefer going against the will of these powerful civil society groups and forge a post-poll alliance with the BJP.BJP supporters awaiting the arrival of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Aizawl.The buzzword among the Mizos is that BJP is ‘anti-Christian’ and ‘pro-minority communities of the state’ – the primary reasons behind the party’s failure to have much breakthrough into the majority community. The Prime Minister’s meeting was, therefore, being widely seen by the local media and poll observers as a last ditch effort to dilute the BJP’s image as only a ‘pro-Chakma’, ‘pro-Bru’ party.So, will the prime minister’s meeting with these groups make it easier for Sarma and Madhav – frequently visiting the state along with Ajay Jamwal, the party’s North East zonal secretary, to chisel the BJP’s battle tactics – to roll out that ‘model’? The answer is a definite no. The only thing keeping the hope alive for the trio is that in politics, anything can happen and it may provide an opportunity to the BJP to play a crucial role if none of the prominent players pull off a simple majority after counting of votes on December 11. An added advantage is the pro-BJP governor, Kummanam Rajasekharan, who, till May this year, headed the party’s Kerala chapter.Also read: Interview | ‘I’m a Congressman, Will Die a Congressman’: Mizoram CM Lal ThanhawlaHowever, typically in Mizoram, the electoral history has borne proof that there has never been a hung assembly. There is another trend – the voters have sought a change of government after every two consecutive terms. Since Mizoram became a state in 1987, there has never been a third consecutive term bestowed on a political party. Thirdly, though the BJP has been contesting the assembly polls in the state since 1993, there has never been a party MLA in the assembly.Naturally then, these three questions are at the core of this election. Will the 2018 elections break any of these records?BJP’s prospectsLet’s take the last possibility first. Among the 40 assembly constituencies, there are seven seats where the state’s three big minority communities – the Chakmas, the Maras and the Brus – have a political say. The electoral fortunes of these seats – Siaha, Palak, Tuichawang, West Tuipui, Mamit, Hachhek and Dampa – have traditionally been shared by the Congress and the MNF. However, the BJP, through its ideological front, the RSS, has worked hard on these communities, particularly among the Brus and the Chakmas, who have been facing the brunt of the majoritarian politics of the state for some time.Most Bru and the Chakma are Buddhists. Of course, the RSS effort needed to be backed by another common BJP tactic used by it in the Northeast to grab power – ushering in rebel candidates of the ruling party (read Congress) prior to an assembly election. One such rebel MLA of the Congress is Buddha Dhan Chakma, who won Congress the Chakma-dominated Tuichawang seat in the 2013 assembly polls.Budha Dhan, the only minister in the Lal Thanhawla government from the community, joined the BJP in October 2018. He resigned from the Congress in August 2017 after the Lal Thanhawla government denied medical seats to four Chakma students from the state’s quota even though they qualified for it. This happened after the powerful students body, the Mizo Zirlai Pawl (MZP), demanded that the seats be kept for students from the majority community, which formed 85% of the population. Looking at Budha Dhan’s electoral success in 2013 and the support he would likely get for standing up for Chakma rights, the BJP is hoping to wrest that seat from the Congress.BJP candidates from six constituencies in Aizawl at a press meet.Another Chakma dominated seat is West Tuipui, held by Nihar Kanti Chakma of the Congress since 2008. He is the Congress candidate for the 2018 polls too, but local poll observers opine that the Chakma community’s anger against the Mizo dominated Congress may tilt it in favour of the BJP candidate, Kina Ranjan Chakma this time round. However, Lal Thanhawla, the Mizoram Pradesh Congress Committee president since 1973 and the state chief minister told The Wire, “We will win that seat. The community is still with us.”Two other likely seats that the BJP is eyeing are the Palak and Siaha, dominated by the minority Mara community. The party has been working hard on this front since 2017. Drawing a lesson from the Congress which expanded in the state back in 1974 by merging with the influential regional party Mizo Union, the BJP, too, amalgamated into itself the Maraland Democratic Front (MDF) in August 2017 to create a base in the community.“This is likely to be politically beneficial to the BJP in these elections,” suggested Vanlalrema Vantawl, former president of the MJA and the editor of Zolen, the more popular of the two local news channels.Yet another point to reckon here, as Vantawl pointed out, is the entry of veteran Mara politician Hiphei into the BJP on November 5. The speaker of the present assembly, Hiphei, wrested the Palak seat for the Congress in 2013 from MDF. However, trouble began when some Mara Autonomous District Council members suggested another name to the MPCC as a Congress candidate for the 2018 polls. This angered 81-year-old Hiphei as he presumably wanted to contest the polls from Palak for the last time.The Mara strongman thereafter met union home minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi and reportedly wrested a promise that the Modi government would “amend the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution to enable greater autonomy to the autonomous district councils in Mizoram’’, including direct funding from the Centre. A local reporter from the Mara community commented, “Hiphei wants to retire as the father of the Mara people and getting that promise from the Centre will help him win the elections this time and meet his goal”.Also read: ‘I Won’t Need the BJP to Form Government in Mizoram’: ZoramthangaRajnath Singh’s promise may help BJP in the Mara-dominated Saiha seat too. Since 2008, the seat has shifted from Congress to MNF. The MNF legislator K. Beichhua is contesting the polls this time too.The state’s three other constituencies – Mamit, Dampa and Hachhek – are dominated by the Bru community. The Congress has been pocketing these seats since 2008. While Lalrobiaka is contesting yet again as a Congress candidate from Dampa, the other two-time winner, John Rotluangliana, is representing Congress in Mamit this time too. However, Mamit is likely to see a close fight between the Congress and the MNF with the entry of another former Congress legislator R. Lalzirliana.Congress supporters at a rally addressed by party’s national president Rahul Gandhi in the outskirts of Aizawl.In the Bru-dominated Hachhek seat too, Congress has fielded its two time-winner Lalrinmawia Ralte. However, he is believed to be facing a tough challenge from the BJP candidate Vanlalruata Pachuau. Aizawl-based political analyst Lalhmingliana was quoted in a November 25 report in Mizoram Post, counting Hachhek as a likely seat for the BJP besides Palak and Tuichawng.Other minoritiesApart from these seven seats, there are five other constituencies dominated by minority communities – Lengteng, Lawngtlai East, Lawngtlai West, Serlui and Chalfiih. While the Paite dominated Lengteng seat, close to the state’s border with Manipur, has been going to H. Rohluna of the Congress since 2008, the Lai community dominated Lawngtlai East has also been Congress’ since the last two terms. Both Rohluna and H. Zothangliana are the party’s candidates respectively this time too. “We don’t see why we should lose these seats,” said state Congress general secretary L.H. Chhuanawma.Yet another constituency where the Lai community has a say is Lawntlai West. It is, however, likely to see a close contest between the Congress candidate C. Ngunlianchunga who won it in 2013, and Ramhluna of MNF who bagged it in 2008. J.B. Rualchhinga of BJP is also trying his luck from the seat. While K. Lalrinthanga won the Hmar dominated Serlui seat for Congress for two terms, this time the party has given the official ticket to Lalhmachhuana. He would face Lalringsanga Raita of MNF among others.ZPM has announced ZNP president Lalduhoma as its chief ministerial candidate.The Chalfiih seat, which too has a sizeable Hmar population, has been going to the Congress since 2008. However, each time, the candidates have changed. While Chawngtinthanga won it for the party in 2008, Dr. Ngurdinglian bagged it in 2013. This time, the official candidate is L.T. Hrangchal and is likely to face considerable a challenge from Lalrinliana Sailo of MNF, and Rualhelia of ZPM contesting as an independent. Yet another Hmar majority seat is Tuivawl, which has been going to R.L. Pianmawia of Congress since 2008.Mizo dominated seatsThough NEDA convenor Sarma told reporters a few weeks ago that the party would bag some Mizo dominated seats too, most poll observers feel otherwise. In fact, BJP candidates from six of the 11 constituencies of Aizawl city held a press meet on November 24 to give a last minute – stating that if the Mizos don’t elect them, then in a scenario where the BJP would be part of the next government, there would only be minority MLAs who wouldn’t take up their cause. How much of that anti-minority card would work for the party is difficult to say.Zoram People’s MovementWhile the Congress and the MNF are likely to be fighting for the top two positions, the dark horse could be the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), a six-party alliance backed by the Church to provide an alternative to voters aside from the Congress and the MNF. Besides Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP), ZPM includes Mizoram People’s Conference (MPC), Zoram Exodus Movement (ZEM), Zoram Decentralisation Front (ZDF), Zoram Reformation Front (ZRF) and Mizoram people’s Party (MPP). This past May, it declared ZNP chief and former MP Lalduhoma as the joint chief ministerial candidate. It is contesting 35 seats.“It is extremely difficult to predict the elections this time in the Mizo dominated seats. While there is a considerable amount of anti-incumbency against the Congress government, it is also not a wave for MNF. For the first time, Mizoram could see a hung assembly and in such a scenario, ZPM could play a big role in government formation,” pointed out Vantawal.Besides the BJP, Lalmingliana too felt, “ZPM will be a king maker in case of a hung assembly”.With a growing feeling about the possibility of a hung assembly, the political players are frequently being seen clearing their stand in press conferences, at least where they stand as far as seeking support from the BJP in such a scenario is concerned. At this point, BJP seems to be the pariah for all players, including NEDA partner MNF.MNF supporters on a street in Aizawl.“As of now we are hopeful of a simple majority but if a situation arises, we might take outside support from BJP, but there is no question of making it a part of the government,” MNF leader and former Rajya Sabha member Lalhmingliana told this correspondent. While the Congress and the ZPM have accused MNF of hobnobbing with the BJP, the MNF has instead counter-accused them of aligning with BJP in case of a hung assembly. It led the ZPM to file an FIR against MNF and lodge a complaint with the ECI. Hours before the election campaign was to end, ZPM vice chairman Reverend Darchungnunga told mediapersons, “Earlier, ZNP president Lalduhoma was in touch with BJP but we have now resolved not to have any truck with it after the elections.”Independents However, the worry among both Congress and MNF is that all the ZPM candidates are contesting as independents as the party is not yet registered with the ECI. Though all are contesting under a common symbol, the hat, the major players have told the media that it “opens the scope for horse trading after the polls,” mainly hinting at the BJP making likely efforts through them to form a government. Rev. Darchungnunga though added, “Each candidate has given a written pledge in front of media to Van Upa Council that none will defect to other parties.”The Van Upa Council is a powerful group of Mizo elders backed by the Church. Besides the ZPM, yet another unregistered party launched by a pastor, Zoram Thar, has fielded 24 candidates as independents, raising the number to 63 – a whopping increase from 11 in 2008 and 2013 polls.Also read: A Church-Backed Initiative Sets an Example in Mizoram ElectionsLal Thanhawla factorAddressing a press meet in Aizawl on November 24, NEDA convenor Sarma said his party is open to a post-poll alliances with any player, including the Congress, as the party “has a separate constitution in the state.” Though it led the Congress to vehemently deny such a possibility, a senior journalist, who didn’t want to be named, didn’t rule it out completely, “If you see the history of Mizoram, it is not altogether an impossibility. The state’s first chief minister, Chhunga, having won the 1974 elections as a Mizo Union leader, went on to merge his party with the Congress after the polls and became a Congress chief minister. What may stop such a merger though is the BJP ideology.”Some days ago, BJP state chief Hulna accused Lal Thanhawla of expressing his willingness to join BJP during a meeting with Rajnath Singh, which the veteran Congressman vehemently denied. “I am a Congressman, will die a Congressman,” he told The Wire in an interview.However, to some poll observers in the Northeast, the memory of the 2016 Arunachal Pradesh coup on the Congress government by the BJP is still fresh.All photos by Sangeeta Barooah Pisharoty.
