New Delhi: A 3-1 outcome in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party belied most pre-poll predictions that showed the Congress to have an edge in at least three of the five poll-bound states. The results not only showcase the BJP’s continuing dominance in the Hindi belt but also reflects the Congress’s inability to challenge it effectively.The Congress can draw some succour from its spectacular revival in Telangana, where it was down and out until a year ago. But its victory in the southern state appeared to be overshadowed by the saffron party’s performance in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. The BJP returned to power for a fifth term by registering a thumping absolute majority, while ejecting the Congress governments in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.A share of votesThe Chhattisgarh win will perhaps be the sweetest as the BJP’s dysfunctional leadership was believed by many as miles behind the Congress led by chief minister Bhupesh Baghel. The BJP not only beat the odds in the central Indian state by leading a focused campaign against the alleged corruption during the Congress regime but also increased its vote share by a substantive 13 percentage points – from 33% to 46%. This accounts for the BJP’s win despite the fact that the Congress has largely retained its vote share. It had a 43% vote share in 2018, which came down marginally to 42.19%. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is veering close to getting almost 165 seats out of 230, while the Congress lags behind at a distant 65. Here again, the Congress retained its vote share of a little over 40%, but the BJP added a chunk to its votes, increasing its vote share from a little more than 41% to around 49%. In Rajasthan, the BJP (41.69%) edged past the Congress (39.53%) by a thin margin, indicating what a close contest it was, although the final results do not reflect it well. The BJP won 115 seats, restricting the Congress to 69. Yet, compared to its previous losses, the Congress performed respectably. Although the Congress largely retained its 2018 vote share (39.3%), registering only a marginal gain, the BJP increased its vote share by over three percentage points. In 2018, it had slipped to 38.08%. The results, once again, indicate that Indian elections are increasingly becoming bi-polar. In such a scenario, the BJP has brought its vote share close to 50% in most of the northern states. Any party that wants to upstage it will have to bear that in mind, and work accordingly. Gone are the days when in multi-cornered contests, parties used to form governments with around 30% votes. In 2012, the Samajwadi Party won over 200 seats in the Uttar Pradesh assembly to form a government on its own with merely 28% votes. In 2007, the Bahujan Samaj Party formed a government on its own in UP with a little over 30%. However, despite both these opposition parties coming together in an alliance to garner nearly 40% votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, it could not get past the BJP, which alone received nearly 50% of the votes. The same has been a trend in almost all north Indian states, where BJP is establishing new benchmarks for Indian elections in successive rounds. This has helped the BJP oust incumbents from opposition and also retain its own governments. Although the Congress claims to have wiped out the BJP from the only southern state Karnataka, the southern states show a similar trend. If, like Tamil Nadu or Kerala, the elections are fought between only two fronts, the winning party, more often than not, registers over 45%, easily. In bi-polar fights, except in the recent case of Himachal Pradesh, the Congress has shown its inability to dislodge incumbents. For instance, Kerala, too, beat the trend of overthrowing governments after every five year term, when the Congress-led alliance could not beat the Left Democratic Front government in 2021. Also read: Why Congress Lost in Three States and Won in OneOn the other hand, Congress has had better chances at winning big if there are more political parties in the electoral fray. For instance, the Congress could form a government in Karnataka with around 43% against BJP’s 38%, as the third party in the fray the Janata Dal (Secular), despite its worst-ever performance, could still register around 13% vote share. In such cases, the third party, although a smaller force, inadvertently ends up helping the Congress by amplifying the opposition narrative. A possibility which does not take away from the comprehensive nature of the grand old party’s win in Telangana is that the BJP’s doubling down its attack on the BRS government may have also helped the electorate sway towards the Congress wholeheartedly. It was, after all, the party best placed to replace the incumbent. This may be a minor observation in front of the spirited, focused, and aggressive campaign that the Congress led in the run-up to the assembly polls in Telangana, especially in comparison to the one it had in Madhya Pradesh, but it still holds ground. The BJP received around 14% of the vote share, while the BRS with 37.36% and the Congress with 39.39% fought it out across the state. The Congress leader Revanth Reddy, unlike Baghel, Gehlot, and Kamal Nath, aggressively challenged the chief minister KCR. Reddy sent a simple message to the electorate that KCR regime symbolises a single family’s feudal rule that was responsible for widespread corruption, unemployment, and general economic stagnation. At the same time, he was aided by leaders like Bhatti Vikramarka who led a state-wide foot rally. The Congress has much to learn from its victories in Karnataka and Telangana, where its leadership was aggressive and creative, and at the same time constantly engaged voters. Missing passionSimilar hard work and spirit was missing in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The leaders remained either trapped in tackling the Congress’s anti-Hindu perception in these states or could not articulate their achievements skilfully. Moreover, the Congress seems to suffer from a basic disconnect in Madhya Pradesh, as Kamal Nath, the CM hopeful, did not come across as passionately articulating the resentment and anger found on the ground. The Congress alternative looked like a mirror image of the BJP, with nothing new to offer. The Chhattisgarh scenario also turned out to be the same for Baghel, who tried his best to match the BJP in its own game, while giving a free run to an allegedly corrupt administration. These assembly elections were for the Congress to lose, as almost all post-poll surveys showed that the party had momentum on its side. However, the BJP’s superior election management skills and comparatively better organisational strength turned the tide in its favour. True, given a pliant media narrative, resource-rich BJP, and almost a blatant use of power against the opposition forces, the Congress does not have a level-playing field. Yet, any opposition force will have to beat all these odds if it participates in the elections and aspires to beat a dominant BJP. A nearly 50% vote share for the BJP in a large number of states clearly implies that the Congress is best positioned only if it receives the support of other political forces. In hindsight, it appears that it may have just squandered an opportunity to fight the elections under the banner of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). These assembly polls could have been the first real experiment for the alliance ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. But it insisted on fighting alone, even at the cost of annoying its INDIA partners. The results are for everyone to see.
