Chandigarh: After playing an important role in Punjab’s politics for decades, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) performed miserably in the 2017 elections – when it was relegated to the third position, behind the Congress and newcomer Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).Though things have not looked up since, ahead of the February 20 assembly elections, the SAD appears to have revived itself in parts of the Majha and Doaba regions. They together account for 48 of the state’s 117 seats.A few strategic decisions are responsible for this. One such move was the induction of Congress MP Jasbir Singh Dimpa’s brother, who havs considerable influence in parts of Majha area. Another is the decision to field Bikram Singh Majithia against Congress state chief Navjot Singh Sidhu and giving tickets to many Hindu candidates. Its alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which has a sound base in the Doaba area, has also given the SAD a boost.However, regaining the Malwa region, which has the largest number of assembly seats (69), continues to be a major challenge for Punjab’s grand old party. The region once was an Akali stronghold. All its main leaders – from Gurcharan Singh Tohra, Harcharan Singh Longowal, Surjit Singh Barnala to Parkash Singh Badal and now his son Sukhbir Badal – came from this region.But AAP’s entry changed Malwa’s political dynamics, shrinking the Akalis to mere eight seats in 2017. The Congress too managed to dent the SAD in several urban pockets of the region, including Ludhiana and Bathinda.In Majha and Doaba too, the SAD won just two and five seats respectively, again its lowest tally.But these signs may not be enough to push the party past the post. Opinion polls have placed it third, after the Congress and AAP.Many believe that the baggage of SAD’s decade long rule between 2007 and 2017 continues to hold it back. In this period, drug addiction became a major issue, apart from the state economy deteriorating. In these ten years, various mafias – transport, liquor and sand – also hit the headlines.Apart from allegations of misgovernance, what has hampered the SAD’s chances most is the series of alleged sacrilege incidents of the Guru Granth Sahib (holy book of the Sikhs) during its regime. The party draws its strength from Sikhs.Illustration: Pariplab ChakrabortyPuran Singh, a farmer from Faridkot district’s Deep Singh Wala village, told The Wire that people were still unhappy with the SAD because of its failure to restrict the drug trade, apart from the incidents of sacrilege.He said even the Congress – which rode to power with promises to bring justice in the sacrilege cases – did not do anything on these issues. Puran Singh said therefore, many people in his village are thinking about giving a chance to AAP. But there are also others who have reservations against the new party, he said. “Things are not very clear right now,” he said.Professor Balkar Singh, former head of the Sri Guru Granth Sahib Studies department at Punjab University, told The Wire that if the allegations of misgovernance against the SAD are one part of the problem, people are also upset with the party because, under its rule, the religious autonomy of Sikh institutions was heavily compromised.The SAD, he said, emerged from the Sikh reform movement in 1920. The mandate was for the promotion of the Sikh panth. But many feel that the party changed track in modern times and it has largely come under the control of one family. Political rivals are also targeting the SAD on these issues.Banking on anti-incumbency, regional flavourBut as far as the SAD is concerned, it has tried to downplay the allegations as “propaganda” and that they do not reflect the ground reality.In a recent interview, SAD president Sukhbir Badal claimed that there is no chitta (heroin) problem in Punjab, Delhi, Haryana or Goa. It was all a “media creation” in 2017, he said. Further, he claimed that the Congress politicised the incidents of sacrilege and has now fallen into its own trap.Senior journalist Jagtar Singh said that the SAD’s poll prospects are mainly hinged on sentiments of anti-incumbency against the Congress. He said the party believes that the people are unhappy with the Congress and will vote for it, like earlier, and not for AAP. This is because SAD is a regional party that is better suited to take the state out of the current mess than “outsider” political forces – a term that the party has used interchangeably for national parties and AAP.“Only time will tell how much of this holds true, since the revival in just a few areas is not enough for any party to form the government,” he added.On the other hand, the party’s internal assessments suggest that its performance will be much better this time, given that 20 of its candidates lost in the 2017 polls by margins fewer than 1,000 votes.Its core voter base, the SAD believes, is still intact. Even in 2017, when the party’s tally was its lowest, its vote share was 25%.In most media statements, the SAD claimed that AAP is in the fight only in a few pockets of Malwa, mainly around Sangrur, Barnala and Moga. In the remaining 10-12 districts of Malwa, it is a direct fight with Congress.The SAD, which is fighting 97, leaving 20 to the BSP, was the first party to declare a majority of the candidates months before poll dates were announced in the first week of January.It has made major changes in ticket distribution by fielding 25 fresh candidates, besides giving tickets to 14 Hindu candidates, in a clear signal to the voters that it will cater to all communities in Punjab. Earlier, it mainly depended upon its old alliance partner BJP for Hindu votes. It broke off ties with the saffron party due to the Union government’s stance on the three farm laws.“The SAD no doubt carries the baggage of the unresolved sacrilege cases and other issues, but it has the advantage of a regional flavour, a stable and socially acceptable leadership across various fault lines,” said political analyst Pramod Kumar.He said at this stage, it is very difficult to predict the outcome of the election, given that a host of factors are at play. If there is a hung house, the SAD will be in contention to form the government, given its religiopolitical clout in the state.This election, analysts say, is crucial for the SAD. More than the survival of the party, the credibility of the leadership is at stake. Internal rumblings against Sukhbir Badal cannot be ruled out if the party fails in the elections. A faction of the SAD led by Sukhdev Dhindsa has already parted ways and has allied with the BJP and Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Lok Congress.
