Bhubaneswar: The failure of the Bharatiya Janata Party-Biju Janata Dal alliance talks that had marked the beginning of the current assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Odisha seems to have set the stage for one of the fiercest battles between the two parties this time.BJP and BJD had ruled the state in an alliance for nine years before deciding to end their partnership in 2009.Illustration: Pariplab ChakrabortyIt was a bitter parting which has cast its shadow on every election they have fought since, in the last 15 years. However, apparently inspired by the public display of bonhomie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief minister and BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik on several occasions since the results of 2019 elections were announced, there was an attempt by top leaders on both sides to revive the old alliance on the eve of the ongoing polls.But the talks failed as the cadres on either side were unwilling to accept a patch-up after a bitter rivalry of one and a half decades and the negotiators, too, found it hard to accommodate the demands of each other on the number of seats. In certain cases there were acute differences over the specific seats that both sides wanted to contest.As both sides geared up to face each other as rivals, it was evident that no quarter would be sought or given by either of them. It was, however, expected that top leaders on both sides would avoid attacking each other as in the past. Such expectations were bolstered by speculation that BJP may need BJD’s support in the post-poll scenario despite the confidence being exuded by the saffron party leaders about setting a new Lok Sabha record.Also read: Naveen Patnaik’s Support for Modi Negates Madhusudan Das, Biju Patnaik’s Secular VisionAn ‘unfriendly’ approachBut speculations about a “friendly contest” between BJP and BJD have been effectively put to rest with Prime Minister Narendra Modi making a direct attack on Naveen Patnaik-led BJD government in the state for the first time in a recent interview to a news channel. Modi, who studiously avoided criticising the BJD government even at the election rallies he held in Odisha in 2019, talked about “Odia asmita (Odia pride)” and Odia language being in danger. It was as direct an attack on the chief minister as possible as Patnaik has been repeatedly accused by his critics of not only failing to learn Odia but also being unaware of the state’s culture, a charge BJD vehemently denies.Dismissing BJD’s support for his party as issue-based and similar to what several other parties have done, the Prime Minister also expressed concern over the state’s growth which, he felt, should have prospered much more given the resources it commands. He made a strong pitch for BJP getting a chance to rule Odisha to take it to new heights.This was something unprecedented and a clear signal that this time it is going to be a no-holds-barred battle. Senior BJP leaders like party’s national president J.P. Nadda and Union home minister Amit Shah also did not pull their punches while attacking the Patnaik government at their recent campaign rallies in the state. Nadda even made indirect references to the political clout enjoyed by the chief minister’s Man Friday, bureaucrat-turned-politician V.K. Pandian.Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik in Jajpur on March 5, 2024. Photo: X/@Naveen_OdishaA responseCM Patnaik himself seems to be keenly aware of the fierce nature of this contest and made a direct attack on his enemies while launching his party’s campaign from Hinjili, his traditional assembly constituency in Ganjam district. Calling upon people to vote for making Odisha the number one state in 2036 when the state will celebrate the centenary of its formation, the 76-year-old leader accused the opposition of trying to block the path of state’s development. “But no one has ever succeeded in opposing developmental work and they won’t succeed this time as well,” said Patnaik, making it clear that his main agenda, as always, would be development.The battle, thus, has been joined by both sides in earnest. Stakes are high for both the parties.While BJD’s prime objective would be to retain power in the state with a good margin and also improve its Lok Sabha performance which had gone down last time with the party managing to win only 12 out of the 21 LS seats at stake – a loss of eight seats compared to 2014 – the saffron party would be focusing hard on the Lok Sabha constituencies.Buoyed by the party’s Lok Sabha performance in 2019 when it won eight seats, including all the five in western Odisha, BJP leaders hope that the party can take its LS tally past 15 this time. In fact, it was their demand for more Lok Sabha seats which was one of the most important reasons for the collapse of alliance talks this time. However, their confidence about putting up an improved performance in the Lok Sabha does not seem based on a realistic assessment of their strength.BJP’s fortunesSituation on the ground has changed a lot since 2019. The steep decline in BJP’s popularity in the state was evident from the results of panchayat elections held in 2022. With Patnaik’s party making effective course corrections in areas where it did not do well in 2019, the BJD swept the rural polls, winning 766 out of the 852 zila parishad (ZP) seats at stake. It was an all-time record. In contrast, the BJP, which had won 297 ZP seats in 2017 elections, could bag only 42 seats and Congress was relegated to the third position with 37 seats.The BJD received a total of 1,10,89,712 votes (52.73%) out of the total 2,10,28,403 valid votes polled in the rural elections followed by BJP with 63,23,746 votes (30.07%) and Congress with 28,54,398 votes. The BJD made a clean sweep of zila parishad seats in Bhadrak (28), Deogarh (7), Jajpur (39) and Jharsuguda (9), blanking the opposition. Deogarh and Jharsuguda are part of western Odisha, the traditional stronghold of BJP.Also read: Why BJP’s Charge of ‘Lost Years’ Against Naveen Patnaik’s 25-Year Rule Is Misleading“The results of panchayat polls showed that BJP’s popularity was on a decline even in western Odisha where it won all the five Lok Sabha seats in 2019. The fact is those seats had gone to the party primarily because there was an undercurrent of sympathy for the prime minister among the voters of the region who, though, have otherwise been loyal to Naveen Patnaik. If the BJD plays its cards right this time, it can retrieve much of the lost ground in the western belt, thus defeating BJP’s plans of increasing its LS seats,” said political analyst Shashi Kant Mishra.He, however, cautioned that any complacency on the part of BJD can cost it dear as there is already confusion in the minds of a section of voters about its relations with the BJP.“They have supported the BJP government inside parliament on some major issues which has created an impression that they are sympathetic towards that party. This can be used by the saffron party to heighten the image of Modi during the elections,” argued Mishra adding that the chief minister should be able to convince the electorate that he actually treats the BJP as its ‘enemy number one’ in the state.That the BJD seems keen to do that now is evident from chief minister’s candidature from Kantabanji, in western Odisha, along with his traditional seat of Hinjili.“His candidature from Kantabanji carries the message that he is serious about checkmating the BJP in the area which is considered to be its stronghold. It is a good move which will have a positive impact in the prospects of the party,” said political commentator Sabita Mohanty who also pointed to the fact that BJD has fielded heavyweights like its organisational secretary Pranab Prakash Das aka Bobby, the number three man in the party organisation after Patnaik and Pandian, from western Odisha.“Bobby has been pitted against Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan in Sambalpur, perhaps the most important Lok Sabha seat in the state. It shows that the party is serious and all the talk of BJD having a fixed bout with BJP in the state is rubbish,” remarked Mohanty.Senior BJD leader Purna Chandra Swain exuded confidence about his party winning the poll battle with an impressive margin. “Our chief minister has launched some of the most popular welfare schemes in the country including Biju Swasthya Kalyan Yojana which us benefitting lakhs of people. Naveen Babu has always delivered on his promises unlike our PM whose tall talk is not matched by his actions. We will decimate the BJP this time,” said Swain, whose wife is contesting the Surada assembly seat this time.
