New Delhi: The Bhartiya Janata Party’s experiment to fight the Madhya Pradesh election with the disruptive strategy of collective leadership anchored by Prime Minister Narendra Modi proved to be a success as it demolished the Congress in the Hindi heartland state despite a spirited fight by the latter.As things stand, the BJP looks set to win 164 seats in the 230-member assembly, an absolute two-thirds majority, cementing the state’s position as an important political and ideological stronghold of the party, one, arguably, second only to Gujarat today.The widespread support received by the BJP and its incredible vote share of more than 48% – its highest ever in the state where it has dominated the political landscape since 1990 – have shrouded MP in saffron. From Malwa in the west bordering Rajasthan to the Vindhyas in the East and Bundelkhand in between, the BJP commanded a dominant position across the landscape.To put things into perspective, the BJP not only made a massive jump in the seats it won this election – 109 to 164 in 2023 – but it also increased its vote share by almost 8%. The Congress, despite a promising campaign where it had initially pushed the ruling BJP on the backfoot in the narrative game, eventually fared miserably. The grand old party was poised to win only 65 seats. In 2018, the party had formed the government with the support of four independent MLAs and three opposition legislators after securing 114 seats, just two short of the majority mark.In hindsight, the 2018 election result, in which the Congress bettered the BJP seat tally for the first time since 2003, appears to be an outlier. The 2023 mandate for the BJP indicates a reversal of the setback it suffered in 2018.ShivrajThe results, especially its magnitude, also validate Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the BJP chief minister who has helmed the state for most of the last two decades but had to face the ignominy of being sidelined in this campaign. Despite the doubts raised on his political future after the BJP refrained from declaring him as their official CM face, Chouhan campaigned enthusiastically and extensively across the width of the state. In his own constituency Budhni, Chouhan registered a thumping victory, increasing his victory margin from 59,000 in 2018 to 1.04 lakh.The BJP win lent a stamp of approval to its strategy to contest the election under a collective leadership even though Modi and Chouhan, despite not being the declared candidate for CM post, were the faces of the campaign at different levels.BJP’s Amit Shah (L) and Shivraj Singh Chouhan at a rally. Photo: Facebook/Shivraj Singh ChouhanTravelling across the state it appeared that Modi retained his popularity with voters. Chouhan, too, was not personally unpopular even though there was plenty of discernible disenchantment and boredom with his rule among a section of voters on a number of issues, especially inflation, unemployment, corruption allegations, crop prices and other local issues.Perhaps this explains why the Congress, despite slumping in seat tally, managed to retain its vote share of 2018. The Congress vote percentage stood at 40.44% at 7 pm even as the Election Commission of India continues to update the results.The massive jump in the BJP’s vote percentage, despite being ruled out by most observers in the build-up to the election, reflects the strong organisational strength of the party as well as the public approval it enjoys. The BJP has a long and ideologically entrenched history in the state dating back to the era of its political ancestor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh.Chouhan, the longest-serving CM in the state, himself rose through the ranks of the saffron party, starting his career as an RSS Swayamsevak in 1972 and the organisation secretary of the Bhopal unit of the ABVP in 1977-78.The results indicate a surge in the popular support for the BJP, cutting across regions. The BJP clean swept the Madhya Bharat region, in the heart of the state, and made significant gains in the Malwa, Bundelkhand and Chambal regions, while retaining its stronghold of Vindhya in the east. Barring the southern part of the Mahakoshal region, where Congress CM candidate Kamal Nath hails from, the map of MP was painted saffron.From Pansemal in the western part of the state to Singrauli in the east, Lanji in the south and Dimani in the north, the BJP registered a comprehensive victory.Also read: Madhya Pradesh’s Emergence as Another Hindutva Laboratory Keeps BJP AfloatThe massive victory can be attributed to several factors.First, it is important to note that the 2018 election was an outlier, increasing expectations that the Congress may be able to dethrone the saffron party. However, while the BJP did fall short of the majority mark and only captured power in 2020 through defections, it still retained more votes and vote share than the Congress. Therefore, even when the Congress performed its best in two decades, the BJP was still more popular on the ground. The long association of the state with the party’s Hindutva ideology, model of governance, organisational setup of the party and the absence of any potent state-level regional party, ensured that the BJP built a committed base of core voters, providing it a strong structural footing.This meant that despite a spirited campaign and a confident outlook buoyed by its victory in 2018, the Congress already faced a daunting task. It was not against just a BJP government but against an entire system created by the BJP over decades of rule and organisation building.Second, while the Congress made early gains, by causing defections in the BJP, this did not translate into a long-lasting message that the saffron party was ceding space. This proved insufficient for the Congress as the BJP recovered from the losses due to its superior organization strength and candidate selection.Third, the disruptive strategy of collective leadership of the BJP proved to be a success. Though the party realized in 2018 that it needed to make amends, and consequently sidelined Chouhan to counter anti-incumbency, it played on the offensive.Fourth, despite his diminished stature, Chouhan is the most popular pan-MP leader, and a member of an OBC community to boot. Kamal Nath, though enjoying the goodwill in his area in Chhindwara, lacks the charisma and energy of Chouhan, who has risen through he ranks in various positions, both organisational and in electoral politics. Despite being sidelined, reduced even in public cutouts during campaigning, Chouhan tried to salvage his position as the leader of the party in the state and hard-sold the various monetary benefit and welfare schemes such as the Ladli Behna scheme that made him earn the moniker ‘mama’ over the years.Also read: ‘Wasn’t My Mother Your Ladli Behna?’No matter who becomes the CM, this is Chouhan’s victory and approval of the BJP’s double engine model of governance in a state where it has no ideological opposition or challenge unlike other Hindi-belt states such as UP and Bihar.Caste mattersWhile the Congress matched the BJP in social welfare promises and monetary handouts, even mirroring it in some aspects, it could not convince the voter about an alternate model of governance. The Congress’ promise to conduct a caste census in the state, to woo OBC voters, was bound to fail in MP which has had no social justice politics over the decades.Without any articulation of how it would benefit them socially and economically in both the short and long run, the Congress promise of caste census failed to resonate with voters. It was hardly a talking point on the ground when this reporter visited the state in early November.An OBC leader of the Congress in Bundelkhand felt that even the state leadership of the Congress did not encourage caste census as they did not want to cede space to backward caste leaders within the organisation.The Congress also lacked a popular OBC leader to articulate the message of the caste census. The defeat should serve as a lesson for the party to revamp its state unit and change the nature of its messaging to the backward caste voter in the general election as well as for its future politics.At the larger level, too, the party lacked a charismatic face. On the other hand, when Chouhan was seemingly downsized, the BJP offered voters a fresh range of choice as CM probables in the form of three Union ministers, four MPs and one national general secretary who were fielded in the election.While top BJP leaders Prahlad Singh Patel (Narsingpur), Narendra Singh Tomar (Dimni) and Kailash Vijayvargiya won their respective seats, Union minister and the BJP’s tallest tribal leader Faggan Singh Kulaste faced an upset in Niwas.Given the long rule of the BJP in MP, the young voter also had little memory of the past rule of the Congress. The 15-month rule of Kamal Nath failed to leave a mark in their psyche, and as the numbers show, voted in favour of continuity rather than change. The overall package of the BJP, comprising of strident Hindutva articulation, appeasement of backward caste voters and targeted welfare schemes for the women, its superior organisation machinery, and choice of CM faces cutting across castes on offer, powered by the charm of Modi, proved too much for the Congress.The results should also serve as a warning for the Congress to avoid controversies over emotional issues such as the Sanatan Dharm controversy which only cause more damage to it rather than good in a deeply religious society.While the Congress said it would analyse the results to understand the debacle, BJP president J.P. Nadda credited the win to Modi’s policies and the BJP’s ideology. Chouhan said the victory was a result of the “reverence” of the voter towards Modi and the trust built in him by them.“The public meetings he held here and the appeals he made to the public, touched their hearts. This is the reason for this result,” said Chouhan.
