Bengaluru: The no-holds-barred campaign for the Karnataka assembly elections has finally drawn to a close, and people are heading to the polling booths today.The pitched battle for supremacy shows that it was a closely-fought election. That makes every vote cast important, every seat won key.It was an election in which there was no perceptible wave. The Congress made corruption allegations against the B.S. Bommai government, and talked about price rise and unemployment while promising five welfare guarantees to the people. The BJP, on the other hand, ran a largely centralised campaign with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as its face, with focus on its slogan of “double engine government” and the Centre’s development schemes.Let us look at the issues that loomed over this election:Source: Election Commission1. The BJP is seeking votes in the name of Modi and not any state leader while in contrast, the Congress keeping its top two state leaders, Siddaramaiah and D.K. Shivakumar, firmly in the forefront.Modi’s appeal was the biggest poll plank for the BJP. The prime minister relentlessly campaigned across the state and held impressive road shows in Bengaluru. It was deemed a Modi versus Congress election. But will this translate into votes?This is not a national election, but one for the state assembly, where issues on the ground matter. Most of the issues that Modi raised were national in nature and not state topics. Also, the Bajrang Dal issue on which Modi lashed out at the Congress appears to have been overplayed, more so because the organisation is hardly visible in the state, except in coastal and neighbouring coastal districts.2. The Congress’s “guarantees” have put the party ahead in the election narrative, along with its “40% corruption” charge against the BJP government. Modi is attempting to wrestle with this by highlighting some goof-ups by Congress leaders. For instance, Modi lashed out at the state Congress president for calling him a “poisonous snake” and his son’s “nalayak” remark against him. At the same time, Modi equated the Congress’s promise to ban Bajrang Dal with an insult to Lord Hanuman.The Congress realised the need to reflect issues on the ground early in the campaigning and brought out its guarantees covering women, youth, welfare schemes etc. The BJP’s counter was a promise to deliver similar welfarist schemes like food security, social welfare, education, health, development and income.Also read: Karnataka Votes on Wednesday. Here’s Why That Means Nothing to This Farming Family.3. Denial of tickets to two prominent Lingayat leaders, Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi, by the BJP and them joining the Congress. The Congress took up this issue as an “insult to Lingayat leaders”.For the first time in the recent past, “insult” to Lingayats became a key issue. The impact of the Shettar-Savadi episode is not known but the Congress has succeeded in making it a big issue. The BJP went a tad on the defensive to defend itself, more so because the Lingayats are the main voter base of the party. It continued to give the community a large number of tickets – 61 this time.With this “insult to Lingayats” campaign, it may become difficult for the BJP to unseat Basavaraj Bommai (also a Lingayat) from chief ministership, should the party come back to power. The death of Lingayat leaders in north Karnataka, especially in the Kittur (Mumbai)-Karnataka region, like Union minister Suresh Angadi, Karnataka minister Umesh Katti and assembly deputy speaker Anand Mamani, has come as a setback to the Lingayat community. On top of this, the Jarkiholi brothers, who belong to the Valmiki community, are growing in power in the region.4. For the first time, the Old Mysuru region garnered attention as the BJP attempted to make inroads there.The Old Mysore region has been hogging the limelight ever since home minister Amit Shah went to Mandya district – the hotbed of Vokkaliga (and Janata Dal-Secular) politics – in December last year, and recently, as Modi launched his campaign blitzkrieg. The reason is the BJP has failed to conquer this part of Karnataka so far. The region has 61 seats and JD(S) won a majority of them in 2018.In districts like Mandya, Ramanagara, Chikballapur and Kolar, the BJP failed to open its account while in Hassan, the home district of JD(S) chief H.D. Deve Gowda, the saffron outfit won only one seat out of eight, with JD(S) winning seven. With BJP veteran B.S. Yediyurappa out of the race for chief ministership, the party lacks a senior leader of substance. As against this, Congress has both its top leaders – Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar – coming from this region. JD(S)’s chief ministerial candidate H.D. Kumaraswamy also hails from here.Also read: Here’s Who Has the Most to Lose in Karnataka5. Both BJP and Congress leaders harped on the need to get a majority, but a hung assembly cannot be ruled out, in which case the JD(S) may play the kingmaker.Lastly, there is a possibility of a hung House, a spectre that the regional party would be only too glad to embrace. Many observers believe that with the BJP and Congress campaigning vigorously, the JD(S) may not reach last time’s tally of 37 seats. If it does or increases this tally, the chance of a fractured mandate looms. It is this that both the national parties want to avoid. But with the fight being intense at the hustings, this may also be a post-poll scenario. In such an eventuality, whom the JD(S) will go with remains to be seen.B.S. Arun is a senior journalist based in Bengaluru.
