Bengaluru: Located in Bengaluru’s Pulakeshinagar constituency, the Muslim-majority DJ Halli locality made national headlines in 2020 when demonstrations against an inflammatory post about Prophet Mohammed turned violent. The post was made by the nephew of incumbent MLA Akhanda Srinivasa Murthy, a popular local leader who has held the seat since 2013. This may prove costly for Murthy, who did not get the Congress ticket this time, and faces a tough contest against his former party.After he was not named in the Congress’ first three candidate lists, Murthy resigned from his position as MLA on April 16 and subsequently decided to contest on a Bahujan Samaj Party ticket. BSP volunteers were visible in DJ Halli canvassing for their candidate, and seemed fairly confident of his victory.ಬಹುಜನ ಪಕ್ಷದ ರಾಷ್ಟ್ರೀಯ ಅಧ್ಯಕ್ಷರು, ನಮ್ಮ ಮಾರ್ಗದರ್ಶಕರು ಆದ ಬೆಹನ್ ಜೀ ಕುಮಾರಿ @Mayawati ಅವರೊಂದಿಗೆ ಇಂದು ನಗರದ ಅರಮನೆ ಮೈದಾನದಲ್ಲಿರುವ ತ್ರಿಪುರ ವಾಸಿನಿಯಲ್ಲಿ ಚುನಾವಣಾ ಪ್ರಚಾರ ಸಭೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಭಾಗವಹಿಸಲಾಯಿತು. ಬೆಹನ್ ಜೀ ಕು. ಮಾಯಾವತಿಯವರ ಮಾರ್ಗದರ್ಶನ ಹಾಗೂ ಭರವಸೆಯ ಮಾತುಗಳಿಂದ ಭೀಮ ಬಲ ಬಂದಂತಾಗಿದೆ.… pic.twitter.com/wTvVGwHPpd— R. Akhanda Srinivas Murthy (@AkhandaSrinivas) May 5, 2023 “The Congress candidate is not even from here, what will he do when we have problems? Murthy lives right here – if we have an issue, we can catch a hold of him,” said one volunteer. Murthy does live close to DJ Halli and his aggressive campaign has included numerous personal interactions and rallies. When I asked residents which way the wind was blowing, most said that ‘Anna’ – as Murthy is fondly known – was everywhere. “He and his people have been much more visible and active than Congress, and he’s pulling crowds.” I gathered that the perception was that he has worked for the constituency – got houses constructed and got people their pensions. “Congress hasn’t done anything for this area,” residents said.Murthy’s popularity is undeniable. In 2018, he won from Pulakeshinagar for the second time in his career by a massive margin of 81,626 votes – the highest of any candidate in that assembly election. Pulakeshinagar is a seat reserved for Scheduled Castes but has a majority 54% Muslim population, concentrated in the DJ Halli and KG Halli localities. It is also a lower income neighbourhood.These localities were the epicentre of the violence that took place in August 2020, when the inflammatory post about the Prophet by Murthy’s nephew P. Naveen sparked a protest by locals in front of the DJ Halli police station. Tensions between demonstrators and the police escalated quickly into violence, resulting in three deaths from police firing, and the mob attacking Murthy’s house which is located close to DJ Halli.Fire at the DJ Halli police station in Bangalore. Photo: Video screengrabThe police proceeded to launch a wide-ranging crackdown in these areas, picking up hundreds of local Muslim men, including minors, often without evidence or on flimsy grounds. Murthy filed a complaint with the police regarding the damage to his house, and residents seem to attribute the arrests that took place in subsequent months partly to this complaint. As many as 480 people were arrested in connection with the violence, including under laws like the stringent Unlawful Activities Prevention Act. Of them, 67 are in jail even now. The crackdown has contributed to a broader feeling of persecution, where some feel that the community is being punished for the actions of a few. One anguished woman said, “Does he (Murthy) not know how difficult it is for us to manage without members of our household?”, referring to men, often primary earners, who are still imprisoned. While it is unlikely that Murthy’s complaint had much to do with the crackdown, the sense is that at a time when the community felt the full force of the state bear down on them he abandoned them. It is not like the demographic dynamics are lost on residents, as one said, “We Muslims got him elected. And then he did nothing for us.”The incident also appears fresh on people’s minds, with many locals bringing it up. One young man explained, “Basically, it was this incident that has changed Murthy’s reputation here. That’s why he wasn’t given the ticket.” The clear disaffection with Murthy because of his handling of the incident and its fallout was perhaps the reason the Congress did not announce him as their candidate. The question is whether it will also cost him his seat. The contest appears to be close, and according to one middle-aged woman, “Everyone is saying haathi-haathi” – referring to the BSP’s elephant election symbol – “will come this time, but I think it’s all talk”. Another woman passionately asked, “Why hasn’t he gotten our boys out?” Indeed, despite some overt support, there is significant anger against Murthy over what they see is a lack of effort on his part, to advocate for those arrested or get them released on bail. Then there is the fact that it was his nephew who provoked the violence in the first place. Also read: Bengaluru Violence: 60 More Arrested, Including BBMP Corporator’s HusbandCongressOn the other hand, many residents did not even know the Congress candidate A.C. Srinivasa when I spoke to them. Srinivasa is not from Pulakeshinagar and fought the last two elections from Mahadevapura. This seems to have been a last-minute choice that has not put the party in the strongest position. To make matters worse, until May 6, Srinivasa had not even visited DJ Halli to interact with voters – in stark contrast to Murthy’s concerted efforts. According to residents, the Congress campaign has been lacklustre when compared to Murthy’s. Perhaps the reason for this was the expectation of a comfortable victory in a Muslim-majority seat that they had previously won with a large margin. However, with the challenge mounted by Murthy, they appear to have rallied in the final few days – with DJ Halli corporator and former mayor R. Sampath Raj visible in the area, meeting residents and holding rallies. It is clear, however, that if it is about the candidate, then Murthy is the clear favourite. However, the party, too, is in play.Most residents in DJ Halli ultimately said that they would vote for the Congress. Even those who spoke of Murthy glowingly eventually revealed they intended to vote for the party, Congress. One middle-aged woman explained it thus, “People might say whatever, but they will vote for Congress only”. Within the ambit of this preference are Murthy’s local representatives with whom people had close ties. A couple of residents suggested this would be a strong factor for most in the locality. The reason was fairly uncomplicated. “We have always voted for the Congress, and will do so this time as well,” they said. Loyalty to the party and a history of having voted for them “for years” seem to be salient. That a loyal core base might serve the Congress is also evidenced when we look at recent election results. In 2018, Murthy won on a Congress ticket with an enormous 65% margin against Prasanna Kumar. However, the same match in 2013 with Murthy on a Janata Dal (Secular) ticket and Kumar representing the Congress saw Murthy win with a much smaller margin of 10%. Clearly, 38% of voters chose the Congress both times despite the candidate switch, and at least 24% of Murthy’s votes last time can be attributed to the Congress ticket. It appears these voters will stay with the party this time too, and coupled with the fallout of the violence, Murthy faces a difficult challenge.Apart from party loyalty, there are three other reasons for voters choosing Congress. First is the violence – there is clear disaffection towards Murthy on this issue, which actually appears to be the only major source of disaffection towards an otherwise popular MLA. Second is the broad discontent about inflation and poverty that has emerged as a key issue during this election and a reason that many are voting for the Congress. There is significant distress due to inflation, particularly petrol and gas prices, and suffering among the poor, who feel this Bharatiya Janata Party government has done nothing for them – and a vote for the Congress is also to vote the BJP out. Third is a broad consciousness among Muslims that the BJP government has pushed discriminatory policies and rhetoric against them. Even the issue of the violence needs to be framed in this broader context and indeed, whenever it was being discussed, a broader sense of persecution also came up. There was a sense that no one was speaking up for the Muslim community, not even “our representatives”. There was an understanding of the BJP’s politics: “We have always lived in harmony in Karnataka, but now they are spreading hate – through the hijab issue, these Hindu-Muslim issues, etc. Since Modi has come, we have faced increasing discrimination and persecution”. The Bommai government’s Hindutva push, in particular the hijab issue, seemed to have created antipathy; and as the BJP adopted an increasingly communal tone in the last week of elections, Muslim voters seem to be incensed by their rhetoric and are keen to vote BJP out.Also read: ‘Karnataka Doesn’t Have a History of Violent Communalism. Which Is Why BJP Has a Tough Time Here’A Congress victory in Pulakeshinagar would show that the party has a core base that can carry it even in the face of a popular local leader – and more broadly show that partisanship can trump candidate appeal in some places. A defeat would be a humbling lesson in better ticket distribution. A victory might also suggest that the Congress has managed to consolidate Muslim voters, due to the BJP antagonising them through its policies and rhetoric, even in seats where they face a strong contender. Perhaps most importantly, in a national context where the BJP has tried to make Muslims increasingly politically irrelevant, this contest shows that they can still hold their representatives accountable and punish them for failing to stand with the community. It is a lesson to secular parties that they cannot take Muslim votes for granted. Both Congress and Murthy have learned this unexpectedly, in a “safe” seat they find themselves fighting hard for.Sumer Sharma is an independent political analyst, formerly with the Policy & Insights division at The Economist Group. He holds an MSc in Political Sociology from the London School of Economics.