Bengaluru/New Delhi: A majority of credible exit polls have predicted an edge for the Congress in Karnataka. It may be natural for many to think that the B.S. Bommai-led BJP government, perceived largely as “corrupt” and “non-performing”, is unlikely to break the 38-year jinx in Karnataka, which has never voted an incumbent party to power since 1985.However, the possibility of a hung verdict can’t be entirely ruled out, especially given the tight contests the state has seen in every successive assembly election in the past two decades. The state has a history of hung outcomes, which in effect means that all three political parties in the fray – the BJP, the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) – have struggled to come to power on their own. The only exception was the 2013 assembly elections, when the Congress crossed the majority mark largely because of a hugely fragmented BJP at the time. The BJP’s two tallest leaders – B.S. Yediyurappa and B. Sriramulu – had rebelled to form their own parties that eventually weaned away over 10% of the traditional BJP vote.The run-up to the 2023 assembly polls in the state was marked by shrill speeches by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who stirred up Hindutva battle cries in the last leg of the campaign, although the BJP had made its achievements in infrastructure development its main plank on the ground. The faction-ridden state leadership forced the saffron party to project Modi as its face of the campaign.The exit of veteran leaders like Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi, belonging to the Lingayat community, hit the party hard. At the same time, the bickering between the two primary factions – one led by the BJP’s national general secretary (organisation) B.L. Santosh and Union minister Pralhad Joshi and the other by former chief minister Yediyurappa – continued through the campaign and was reflected in the contradictory statements given by leaders of both camps.As the BJP’s state-level leaders, including chief minister Bommai, took a back seat, Modi and other central leaders urged the electorate to vote for a “double-engine government” and Hindu nationalism.Also read: In a North Bengaluru Seat, a Lesson to Parties That They Can’t Take the Muslim Vote For GrantedThe Congress, on the other hand, ran a spirited and focused campaign on the issues of welfare and social justice, in a bid to consolidate the poor and middle classes. Former chief minister Siddaramaiah and D.K. Shivakumar were ably aided by central leaders like Mallikarjun Kharge, Randeep Singh Surjewala, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in a rare show of cohesion. Together, they amplified the alleged corruption scandals, branded the Bommai government as a “40% commission sarkara” and highlighted issues like price rise and unemployment.Had the polls been only a contest of political narratives, the Congress was leaps ahead of the saffron party. On the electoral ground, however, the polls have unfolded as a fight to the finish, complicated further by hyperlocal issues, pitched fights between candidates, knotty caste and community equations, a diverse demographic makeup and regional inconsistencies.A few factors are likely to be crucial in deciding the electoral outcome.One, a lot will depend on how the urban seats vote. There are around 90 urban constituencies in the 224-member assembly. The urban local body polls in 2021 saw the Congress emerge as the single largest party, leaving the BJP behind by a good number. However, the saffron party has since then concentrated its efforts on building urban infrastructure, like four-lane roads with dividers, street lights, and footpaths, in almost all these constituencies. Smart City projects in towns like Belagavi, Davanagere and Hubbali have given a new look to the towns, attracting private capital and shooting up property prices.BJP leaders hope their party will get a definitive advantage because of an uptick in this urban infrastructure. However, both the Congress and the JD(S) have focused more on the issues of the poor, both urban and rural, who were left out of the BJP’s scheme of development, making these contests in urban seats interesting.Two, the exit of Shettar and Savadi from the BJP days before the polls and the alleged sidelining of Yediyurappa turned the Lingayat factor into a much-debated issue. However, reports from the ground suggest that Vokkaligas, concentrated in southern Karnataka, may play a greater role than Lingayats in deciding the outcome. The JD(S)’s bastion, Old Mysuru, comprising 61 seats where Vokkaligas form almost 40% of the total population, is a region to watch out for as the BJP’s presence is negligible there. The contest is largely limited to a bipolar fight between the JD(S) and the Congress. Out of the 37 seats that the JD(S) won in 2018, 31 were from Old Mysuru.Any incremental gains for the Congress in the belt will surely propel it towards the majority mark. The Congress’s decision to appoint Vokkaliga leader DK Shivakumar as the state unit’s president and project him as a key decision maker may turn things around. However, if the JD(S) still retains its stronghold, the likelihood of a hung outcome will only increase.Also read: Polarised Politics But Harmonious Living: The Story of Bommai’s Constituency, ShiggaonAccording to most surveys, the BJP is going to retain much of its traditional Lingayat vote share in the Kittur Karnataka (formerly Mumbai Karnataka) and Central Karnataka regions. In that scenario, the Vokkaligas will likely play a key role in deciding the outcome.Three, while the political narratives of both the Congress and the BJP set the larger mood, the ground-level contests will be between two social coalitions. The BJP with a record of garnering over 45% votes in its strongholds is banking on the combination of Lingayats, Nayakas (ST), smaller OBC communities like Edigas and Billavas which are concentrated in pockets, and ‘Left-Hand’ Dalits (formerly ‘untouchable’ communities). Together, they form a majority in over 100 seats and have helped the BJP really improve its strike rate in northern and central Karnataka. The tweaking of sub-quotas in the state’s reservation system days ahead of the polls by the Bommai government was also an attempt to both consolidate its existing social support and strengthen it further by reaching out to underrepresented communities.Competing against it will be the Congress’s AHINDA – the Kannada acronym for OBCs, minorities and Dalits – support that the late chief minister D Devaraj Urs had stitched together and Siddaramaiah as the chief minister between 2013 and 2018 revived. The Congress by raising issues of the poor and canvassing along class lines has attempted to win over sections of the BJP’s conventional voters.Resentment against the Bommai government has been palpable across the state, but whether it will translate into a vote for the Congress remains to be seen as competing social interests often dictate voting patterns in the state.Four, 74 assembly segments seen as “swing” seats will be keenly watched. Of these 74 seats, where victory margins were less than 10,000 votes in 2018, the Congress won 37, while the BJP secured 27 and the JD(S) 10. All parties have worked hard on these seats and are hoping to improve their tally in these constituencies. Districts like Davanagere and Chitradurga, and some parts of Kittur Karnataka could prove to be the eventual dealbreakers.Five, a crucial factor to watch out for in these segments is the way the minority communities vote. The BJP is hoping that a split in Muslim and Christian votes between the Congress and the JD(S) will help it corner many of these seats. The JD(S), on its part, has raised the concerns of Muslims in the context of the controversies over hijab/halal, cattle slaughter, or even the scrapping of Muslim quota much more vocally than the Congress. But the Congress’s statewide influence and position to challenge the BJP across the state will work in its favour as far as the voting preferences of Muslims (13% of the state’s population) are concerned.Many of these aspects will be looked into closely on May 13 when the results are declared. As of now, while the national parties have claimed to cross the majority mark, the joker in the pack, the HD Deve Gowda-led JD(S), is quietly hoping for yet another hung verdict to stay relevant.
