With the release of the Bihar caste survey, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is not only unnerved but also appears confused about how to respond to the issue. There has been a complete divergence between the stance taken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Cabinet colleagues as well as senior leaders of his party.The announcement by Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar that the full report would be out in one and a half months has made the BJP jittery.While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has described the survey report as “paap (sin) to divide the Hindu society” and accused Congress of “taking away the minorities’ rights”, the Bihar chief minister called an all-party meeting on Tuesday to follow up on the survey report.“As of now, the government has published the statistics of 215 castes in the state. It will table the statistics of the comprehensive economic survey report in the state Legislature after one and half months,” Nitish said in a meeting with the representatives of nine parties from Bihar, including the BJP.“He (Nitish) might drop another bombshell with the economic survey report. Who knows… he might break the cap of 50% quota in the jobs and raise the same for the backward classes and the extremely backward classes in Bihar beyond the existing 27%,” said a senior BJP leader who is unhappy with the prime minister reacting to the survey in an “unwise” manner.Also read: Nine Reasons Why Numbers Revealed by Bihar Caste Census Could Shake Up National PoliticsApna Dal leader Anupirya Patel, who is a minister in the Modi government, has also extended her support to the idea of conducting a caste census nationwide. Her statement came at around the same time when Modi questioned the Congress’s demand for a nationwide census at a public meeting in Jagdalpur in poll-bound Chhattisgarh.Sushil Kumar Modi, the BJP’s senior leader in Bihar who is said to have a better understanding of the caste politics in the state, has tried to take credit for the caste survey. He said it was the BJP which had conceived the idea when it was in power in the state along with Nitish Kumar. Meanwhile, another BJP leader from the state and Union minister Giriraj Singh rubbished the report as “eyewash”.Coherent INDIAWhile the prime minister, his ministers, and party colleagues sang different tunes, leaders of the INDIA bloc foregrounded the formula that a share in governance should be proportionate to the size of a community’s population.Rahul Gandhi, soon after the publication of the report, tweeted that Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes constituted 84% of the population. “Only three out of 90 secretaries in the government of India belong to the OBCs who control barely 5% of the budget. Jitni aabadi utna haq – ye hamara pran hai (rights according to the size of the population – it is our resolve)”.The Congress leader’s statement is perfectly in sync with that of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) president Lalu Prasad Yadav’s comment. He said, “Jitni hissedari utni bhagidari (participation in accordance with the population).” Even Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav supported the report released by the Bihar government and made a pitch for a similar exercise nationwide.According to the survey report, OBCs and extremely backward castes (EBCs) constitute 63% of Bihar’s population. SCs account for 19.65%. The population of upper castes (general category) is 15.52%, which also includes about 5% upper caste Muslims. Muslims altogether account for 17.70% of the state’s population.It is the numerical dominance of OBCs in the Hindi heartland that has given regional parties – RJD and Janata Dal (United) in Bihar; and Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh – confidence. On the other hand, it has unnerved the BJP, given the thin population of the Hindu upper castes and the business communities – its primary support base.Representative image. Photo: PTIMuch to the chagrin of the BJP, the Congress party has got into the mould of Mandal parties and is taking up the cause of the OBCs, SCs, and STs in election-bound Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The RJD, JD(U) and SP will attempt to hold the fort against the BJP in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.In a complete departure from his father Rajiv Gandhi’s view – who as the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha in 1990 had opposed the implementation of the Mandal Commission report and emphasised “merit” as the primary criterion for jobs – Rahul Gandhi is championing the cause of backward classes and Dalits by advocating for a proportionate share in governance.He regretted that his party couldn’t ensure proportionate representation to the OBCs and Dalits when it was in power. At his election rallies in Madhya Pradesh, he said that his party – if voted to power – would conduct a caste survey. He attacked the prime minister for keeping the caste census in abeyance and patronising his “capitalist friends” at the cost of the poor.Nitish Kumar foregrounds OBC agenda for INDIA“By giving a new perspective to the caste dynamics of the state, Nitish Kumar has emerged as a key face of the INDIA bloc,” K.C. Tyagi, JD(U)’s national general secretary told this writer.The Bihar chief minister, after snapping ties with the BJP in August 2022, brought the warring West Bengal and Delhi chief ministers – Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal – and the SP boss Akhilesh Yadav to the table with the Congress.Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi and Nitish Kumar address the press after their meeting on April 12, 2023. Photo: Twitter/@RJDforIndiaNitish flummoxed the BJP by doing so, as the Hindutva party had revelled when the Trinamool Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and SP had previously trained their guns at the Congress. Thanks to the Bihar chief minister playing as the key architect, these parties are now integral components of the INDIA bloc that has close to 30 parties – mostly with strong roots in states across the country.In an obvious bid to score over INDIA holding its third conclave in Mumbai on August 31 and September 1, the Narendra Modi government announced a special session of parliament without revealing the agenda. After a lot of suspense over the agenda, the government introduced the Women’s Reservation Bill with the precondition that it would be implemented after conducting the census and a delimitation exercise. Media outlets supportive of the government described the move as yet another of Modi’s “masterstrokes”.Also read: How BJP’s Own Fragmenting of Social Justice Politics Led to the Bihar Caste CensusBut Nitish has, effectively, punctured the BJP’s moves by bringing out the statistics of the caste-based survey. Now, the INDIA parties perceive Bihar as the “microcosm” of the larger demography in the Hindi heartland. As such, the caste survey will create a “new consciousness” among the OBCs – ushering in an era of Mandal 2.0 in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which account for 125 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP and its allies had won 104 of these in the 2019 elections.In fact, it is because of his clout among the EBCs – who constitute about 36.01% of Bihar’s population – that Nitish has lasted for so long as the chief minister for nearly two decades.It was with the support of the EBCs that Nitish – in an alliance with the BJP – replaced the mighty Lalu-Rabri government in 2005. Be it the BJP or the RJD, he ensures the victory of his alliance.Soon after coming to power in 2005, Nitish increased his clout among the EBCs by giving them 15% quota against 12% to the BCs – a formula that Karpoori Thakur had implemented as the Bihar chief minister in the 1970s – in jobs, panchayats and other local bodies, and initiated a plethora of welfare schemes for the EBCs and Mahadalits. In the process, Nitish consolidated a large population of the poor.In Bihar, the BJP will be up against an incredibly strong alliance. Lalu Prasad Yadav commands the unbreakable support of the Yadavs and Muslims, who together constitute nearly 32% of Bihar’s population, while Nitish Kumar’s core support base makes up another third of the state’s population. Add to this mix the left parties and the Congress and the opposition will be in a commanding position.Many BJP insiders fear that the BJP will be decimated in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar. That is why the Hindutva party is nervous. And that is also precisely the reason for INDIA’s mirth. Almost all leaders of the INDIA parties feel that police raids on NewsClick journalists on Tuesday are part of the BJP’s ploy to distract attention from Bihar’s caste survey.Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author, media educator, and independent researcher in folklore.
