New Delhi: The outcome of the hotly-contested Bihar assembly polls should be out in a few hours. The first state polls during the coronavirus pandemic has gained attention for a number of reasons, the most significant being the coming-of-age of Tejashwi Yadav in state politics.Tejashwi Yadav’s campaignTejashwi has led the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) from the front, forged a tight pre-poll coalition with the Left parties and Congress, and mounted an energetic campaign on the real issues of “kamaai, padhai, dawai, sichai” (income, education, medicine, irrigation) – the inadequacy of which has plagued Bihar for decades.While doing so, he made criticism about his “inexperience” work to his advantage by presenting a kind of youthful energy in his campaign by addressing more than 15 packed rallies every day in the run-up to the polls. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan’s dynamic canvassing starkly contrasted chief minister Nitish Kumar’s weary demeanour and speeches.If the polls are to be believed, Tejashwi Yadav could be the next chief minister of Bihar. Photo: Facebook/Tejashwi YadavUnited Mahagathbandhan and Left’s resurgenceThe other crucial takeaway from the month-long campaign was the way the three political groups – RJD, Left parties, and the Congress – came together not only as electoral allies who drew up a common minimum agenda, but also as a combined front on the ground. In every region of Bihar, the leaders of all three forces not only supported each other wholeheartedly but ensured that their support groups in the electorate came together during voting. Without the presence of single-caste parties like the Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindutani Awam Morcha or Upendra Khushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP), all of whom left the opposition alliance days ahead of the polls, the Mahagathbandhan could become a long-term front to counter BJP’s growth.The elections have also marked a re-emergence of Left parties in the Hindi heartland. The exit polls show that the biggest Left party in Bihar, the Communist Party of India (ML-Liberation), which is contesting 19 seats, may end up with the best “strike rate” – the much-talked about barometer of electoral performance in the last few years.Also read: Relooking at the Key Issues of Bihar Elections and the Pulse of Rural VotersDisorder in the NDAIn contrast, the National Democratic Alliance has come across as a heavily divided house, in which a significant number of Bharatiya Janata Party rebels are contesting on Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party tickets against Janata Dal (United). In fact, according to the polls, the presence of LJP as a separate front has confused the 15% upper caste voters – the most loyal BJP supporting group. LJP not only muddied the waters by giving a substantial number of tickets to leaders from upper caste groups, but also capitalised on the resentment among them against chief minister Nitish Kumar.Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief Chirag Paswan along with party leaders after a a party meeting in New Delhi, October 4, 2020. Photo: PTIMoreover, 37-year-old Chirag Paswan’s open rebellion set the dormant anti-incumbency sentiment against the chief minister Nitish Kumar in motion, while also appearing to divide the NDA’s traditional vote bank. The collective attack on Nitish from all fronts, however, seems to put the Mahagathbandhan – the largest opposition front – in an advantageous position.Additionally, the Bihar elections has become a rare event in which the BJP, which is known for its machine-like efficiency and micro-management, couldn’t put its house in order. It couldn’t prevent its rebels from contesting and venturing into its ally JD(U)’s territory. In many seats, the larger Sangh parivar, in fact, aided the rebels to defeat JD(U)’s candidates.Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 12 rallies saw unusually poor turnouts, while other BJP leaders like Adityanath and national president J.P. Nadda spoke in front of largely-empty stands through the campaign.BJP’s ploy to unseat Nitish?A section of political observers believe that the disorder in the NDA was largely manufactured by the BJP to wrest power from Nitish Kumar, who, according to many in the Modi-Shah-led organisation, has prevented the party’s potential rise in Bihar. However, one cannot negate the fact that the BJP, which commands mostly a section of upper caste support in the state, could remain in ruling positions only because of its ally, Janata Dal (United).If at all the BJP has an under-the-table understanding with the LJP, the way the saffron party distanced itself from Nitish Kumar can only be seen as an outright betrayal. How Nitish Kumar – who himself had to face a similar allegation when he ditched the RJD midway through his last tenure to form government with the BJP – responds to such treatment remains to be seen. However, the Bihar episode will be remembered as yet another instance of BJP ditching its allies at a critical juncture.Given the chaotic NDA’s campaign, the NDA has solely relied on the performance of BJP, which is contesting 110 seats and has managed to cleverly insulate itself from anger against Nitish Kumar. It will also hope that the chief minister and his party may still attract a good number of votes because of the goodwill he has created over the last 15 years. Many of its candidates are banking on their hold over their constituencies to see them through.Also read: For Muslims in Bihar, Jobs, Poverty and Illness Took a Backseat to the Citizenship QuestionUnemployment plank may be the potential opposition templateWhatever the outcome, the opposition’s strategy to set the political narrative on the plank of unemployment has worked to a great extent on the ground. The promise of “10 lakh jobs” by Tejashwi resonated among the youth, which comprises over 56% of the electorate. The opposition took up issues of education and livelihood, which appealed to people from all sections of the strongly caste-oriented Bihari society.At the centre of this campaign has been 31-year-old Tejashwi and many other young faces which the Left parties and Congress fielded as their candidates. The NDA, on the other hand, came across as an old-tired unit that gave a fillip to the “old and tired versus young and energetic” rhetoric advanced by the opposition alliance. The opposition, in real terms, oversaw a generational shift by fielding new and underrepresented candidates from different caste groups while NDA repeated most of its old leaders.The ruling alliance’s negative agenda of dissing the RJD rule as “jungle raj” and BJP’s desperate efforts to polarise the elections on religious lines – a successful template that the BJP has used elsewhere – have largely been outshined by the opposition’s promise of employment and better education.A game of numbersThe exit polls have largely predicted either a hung house with the Mahagathbandhan slightly ahead of the NDA, or have given a comfortable majority to the RJD-led alliance. The RJD is fighting 144 out of the 243 seats, while the Congress is contesting 70 and Left parties 29.In the NDA, JD(U) is contesting 115 seats, the BJP 110, while the other two smaller constituents VIP and HAM are fighting for 11 and seven seats respectively.Also read: Hurt by the Past, Hopeless About the Future: The Agony of Bihar’s Migrant WorkersThere are two other fronts in the fray with their own pockets of influence. Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav, former RJD MP, has formed the Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA) which comprises his Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) and smaller parties like the Chandra Shekhar Azad-led Azad Samaj Party, the Social Democratic Party of M.K. Faizi, and the Bahujan Mukti Party.Upendra Khushwaha’s RLSP too has forged a pre-poll coalition called the Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF), consisting of the Bahujan Samaj Party, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), former RJD MP Devendra Yadav’s Samajwadi Janata Dal Democratic and Janatantrik Party (Socialist).However, except in a few seats, the PDA and GDSF may only prove to be spoilers for either the Mahagathbandhan or the NDA. How much vote share the two get eventually may prove to be crucial in as many as 50 seats.Here are some seats to look out for:Raghopur: Tejashwi Yadav is contesting from the seat in Vaishali district again. He is up against BJP’s Satish Kumar Yadav and LJP’s Rakesh Roshan.Hasanpur: Tejashwi’s elder brother left his former constituency Mahua in Vaishali to contest from this seat in Samastipur. It was rumoured that he left Mahua because his estranged father-in-law Chandrika Rai was planning to field his wife Aishwarya against him.Paliganj: This constituency, around 50 kilometres from Patna, shot to limelight because of the CPI (ML-Liberation) candidate Sandeep Saurav. Saurav, a PhD graduate from Jawaharlal Nehru University, has been an office-bearer in the JNU students’ union and left his permanent job as an assistant professor to join politics full-time.Agiaon: This seat in Bhojpur was witness to frequent caste wars between Dalits and upper caste landlords until the late 1990s. Since then, the communist movement here evolved from its spearheading role in land conflicts to address livelihood issues of the poor irrespective of caste identities. Manoj Manzil, the CPI (ML-Liberation) candidate has been protesting against poor quality of education in the region, corruption in the public distribution scheme, and illegal sand mining.Bankipur: Comprising large parts of central Patna, the seat is home to four-time BJP MLA Nitin Nabin. However, in the fray this time is the son of actor-turned politician Shatrughan Sinha – Luv Sinha – who is contesting as a Congress candidate. Pushpam Priya from the newly-formed Plurals Party and independent candidate and Oxford University teacher Manish Barriarr are also contesting for this prestigious seat.Imamganj: Former chief minister and HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi is seeking a reelection from this seat in Gaya. He is facing four-time MLA and veteran Dalit Uday Narayan Choudhary who is contesting on a RJD ticket after leaving JD(U).Dumraon: JD(U) spokesperson Anjum Ara is contesting against CPI(ML-Liberation)’s Ajit Kumar Khushwaha from this seat in Buxar. Known to be a safe seat for JD(U), Khushwaha has mounted a tough challenge for her. Independent candidate Shivang Vijay, the grandson of the former Maharaja Kamal Singh – who was the MP from Buxar twice in 1952 and 1957 – is also in the fray.Kishanganj: The most important seat of the north-east region of the state known as Seemanchal will be a tough contest between AIMIM’s Kamrul Hoda, Congress’ Izrahul Hussain and BJP’s Sweety Singh. The seat was taken by Congress’ Javed Azad in 2010 and 2015 polls.Madhepura: Pappu Yadav, former RJD MP and PDA’s chief ministerial candidate is contesting here against JD(U)’s Nikhil Mandal, grandson of B.P. Mandal of Mandal Commission fame, and RJD’s Chandrasekhar. All the three candidates belong to the Yadav community from this Yadav-dominated seat.Saharsa: The seat saw a contest between RJD’s Lovely Anand, wife of the murder convict and former MP Anand Mohan, and BJP’s Alok Ranjan.Dinara: Once known as the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate and Amit Shah’s right hand man who helped the party win in Jharkhand in 2014, Rajendra Singh contested on a LJP ticket against JD(U)’s Minister of Department of Science and Technology, Jai Kumar Singh. He is expected to win the seat, according to most estimates.Harnaut: Nitish Kumar’s former constituency, Harnaut, has elected only JD(U) candidates in the recent electoral history. However, there is significant anger against the sitting legislator Harinarayan Singh. Seeking re-election, Singh is up against little-known Congress candidate Kundan Gupta.Both the chief minister Nitish Kumar and the deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi haven’t contested direct elections since 2005, and have entered the assembly as members of the legislative council in the last three terms.
