The recent cabinet reshuffle in Bihar marks a significant shift in the state’s power dynamics, solidifying the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) grip over the alliance and underscoring Nitish Kumar’s declining autonomy. The reshuffle, which saw the BJP securing 21 out of 36 ministerial positions, is a stark departure from the past, where Nitish dictated terms within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), signaling the BJP’s transformation from a junior partner to the principal force in Bihar, a shift that will define the run-up to the 2025 Assembly elections.For the BJP, the reshuffle is not just about numbers; it is an assertion of authority. Having made arrangements for the alliance partners in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party is now reinforcing its position within the state government, ensuring that it is no longer dependent on Nitish’s goodwill. The party’s national leadership has carefully balanced caste considerations, ensuring representation for key groups such as the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), but it has also subtly undermined Nitish’s influence by benefiting some of his contenders like Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi.However, this aggressive push comes with risks. Nitish, despite his diminishing leverage, remains a formidable player in Bihar’s politics. His ability to switch sides has kept him relevant for two decades, and if he senses that the BJP is trying to completely sideline him, he may look for alternatives. Nitish’s Kurmi support base, though smaller in comparison to other dominant caste groups, remains loyal, and his governance credibility still appeals to sections of the electorate. If pushed too hard, he could choose to destabilise the alliance rather than allow himself to be reduced to a ceremonial figurehead.This tension also extends to the national level. The BJP’s decision to induct eight MPs from Bihar into Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet – including four non-BJP MPs – was a calculated attempt to strengthen its alliance structure while managing caste expectations. However, traditional BJP support bases, such as Vaishyas and Rajputs, found themselves underrepresented, leading to murmurs of discontent. The party is walking a tightrope, trying to consolidate its hold over Bihar without alienating key social groups.The broader question remains: Can the BJP maintain its dominance without completely sidelining Nitish? The party needs him for now, but its long-term goal appears to be a Bihar where it does not have to depend on Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)).BJP’s Political Manoeuvring and the Opposition’s ResponseAs the BJP works to consolidate its control over the NDA, Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has been methodically expanding its influence. Unlike the BJP, which is managing internal alliance tensions, the RJD has positioned itself as a cohesive alternative for those disenchanted with both the BJP and JD(U). One of Tejashwi’s most effective strategies has been his outreach to the Koeri-Kurmi voter base, a move that directly challenges both Nitish and the BJP’s ambitions.The RJD’s appointment of Abhay Kumar Kushwaha as its parliamentary committee head in the Lok Sabha reflects a calculated move to broaden its appeal among non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in Bihar. Tejashwi, steering the RJD, is recalibrating caste alignments by targeting groups beyond the party’s traditional Muslim-Yadav base. This strategy paid dividends in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Shahabad, a region encompassing Arrah, Buxar, Sasaram, and Aurangabad, where the NDA faced a stunning sweep, losing all four seats it had dominated in 2019. While Shahabad constituency has a notable Rajput population, it also comprises of significant OBC and Dalit communities, which the RJD effectively mobilised. In 2019, the BJP won Arrah, Buxar, and Sasaram, with the JD(U) taking Aurangabad, and the NDA retained influence in the 2020 Assembly polls. However, 2024 saw the RJD’s Abhay Kushwaha defeat BJP’s Sushil Kumar Singh in Aurangabad, alongside gains in Arrah (CPI-ML’s Sudama Prasad), Buxar (RJD’s Sudhakar Singh), and Sasaram (Congress’s Manoj Kumar), signaling a shift driven by non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits.Also read: The Predator’s Patience: BJP’s Long Game Against NitishBihar’s caste composition – EBCs at 36.01%, OBCs at 27.12%, Scheduled Castes (SCs) at 19.65%, and Forward Castes at 15.52%, as per the 2023 caste survey – underscores the potential of this realignment. The RJD’s outreach, bolstered by alliances like the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) representing the Nishad community, crafted a coalition that exploited unemployment woes and anti-incumbency against Nitish’s JD(U)-led government. In Shahabad, the RJD’s messaging – amplified by CPI-ML’s gains – capitalised on discontent with the BJP’s Rajput-heavy candidate choices and Nitish’s perceived governance fatigue. If the BJP and JD(U) overlook this caste pivot and fail to address economic grievances, they risk further erosion to an RJD that’s adeptly blending caste arithmetic with populist promises.BJP’s nomination of Upendra Kushwaha to the Rajya Sabha serves as another critical marker of its evolving Bihar strategy. Upendra Kushwaha, a leader who has shifted allegiances multiple times, represents the Koeri community, a crucial voting bloc in Bihar’s caste-based politics. His inclusion in the Rajya Sabha at the cost of the disgruntled Dalit leader Pashupati Para was a strategic move to weaken Nitish Kumar’s hold over the Koeri-Kurmi vote bank, which has historically been the foundation of JD(U)’s electoral strength.However, Upendra Kushwaha’s recent electoral performance raises questions about whether he still commands the influence. In the 2024 general elections, he finished a distant third in Karakat, which suggests that his appeal may be waning. Despite this setback, the BJP sees value in keeping him within the NDA fold, preventing him from aligning with the RJD. By elevating Upendra Kushwaha, the BJP is not just rewarding an ally; it is attempting to create an alternative leadership within the Koeri community.For Nitish, these developments pose a complex challenge. His position within the NDA is weaker than ever. Aligning with the RJD again would come with credibility costs, given his past betrayals. Moreover, Tejashwi is no longer willing to play second fiddle to Nitish, making a smooth return unlikely. The Congress and Left parties, would also be wary of reintegrating Nitish without clear assurances.Also read: By Asserting That His Father Should be Named CM Candidate, Nitish’s Son Has Derailed Modi’s PlansThe BJP’s strategy in Bihar is a high-risk, high-reward game. On one hand, it is successfully asserting its dominance over the alliance, ensuring that it is no longer at Nitish’s mercy. On the other hand, its aggressive push could destabilise the NDA, opening the door for the opposition to exploit internal fractures. If the BJP’s calculations prove incorrect, the party could find itself facing a more formidable challenge in the 2025 Assembly polls than it anticipates.Meanwhile, Tejashwi is steadily working to expand his support base, and if the BJP-JD(U) alliance continues to show cracks, he could emerge as the biggest beneficiary. Nitish, though weakened, remains a wildcard. If he senses that the BJP is closing all doors for him, he may choose to make a move that reshapes Bihar’s political landscape yet again. The battle for Bihar has begun, and the stakes have never been higher.Ashraf Nehal is a South Asia analyst based out of London.
