With the countdown to the Lok Sabha elections underway, political circles are buzzing with speculations and calculations on who will win in 2024. The composition and alliances of ruling political parties, therefore, hold immense significance in shaping our political future in the ever-changing world of Indian politics.We have prepared a series of four maps to shed light on the current scenario.India has 28 states and eight Union Territories (UTs), out of which 31 have provisions for a legislative assembly.Chandigarh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Leh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu, and Lakshadweep are the five UTs without legislatures. An anomaly here is Jammu and Kashmir, which has been under president’s rule since its reorganisation in 2019, as it still awaits elections to its legislative assembly.In 15 out of the remaining 30 regions, regional and other state political parties are the major political players.The map below shows 15 states and UTs where neither the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor the Indian National Congress emerged as the single largest party in the last held state assembly elections. This data excludes Jammu and Kashmir.The map shows key insights into the Lok Sabha seats and party performance.Credit: @ichunaav Approximately 45% of the Lok Sabha seats, specifically 244 out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats, are attributed to these 15 states and UTs combined.The following table provides a comparative analysis of the Lok Sabha results from 2019, 2014, and 2009 within these 244 parliamentary constituencies. It is important to recognise that no two elections are identical, and the results of 2019, 2014, and 2009 can only offer alternative perspectives.The influence of pre-poll alliances often significantly impact electoral outcomes, particularly in states like Tamil Nadu, Bihar, and Kerala. It is crucial to note that the table below does not indicate or reflect any existing pre-poll alliances between parties during the time of these elections.Credit: @ichunaavAlso read: A Congress Win in Karnataka Can Spur Opposition Unity for Lok Sabha Polls In the 2019 election results, the BJP won in 67 seats, while the Congress secured 41 seats out of the total 244 seats under consideration. The remaining 136 seats were distributed among several other parties.It is noteworthy that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) secured 24 seats, the YSR Congress Party won 22 seats, the All India Trinamool Congress claimed 22 seats, the Janata Dal (United) attained 16 seats, and the Biju Janata Dal won 12 seats.Upon close examination of the BJP’s electoral figures, it becomes apparent that the party has made substantial gains in terms of political influence and seat acquisition in these states. The party’s notable surge in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, compared to the results of 2014, predominantly stems from the states of West Bengal, where they secured 18 out of 42 seats, and Orissa, where they got eight out of 21 seats.The forthcoming months will provide further insight into whether the BJP can retain, sustain, or expand upon these numbers.An intriguing phenomenon lies in the performance of the Congress in these 15 states.In the national election of 2019, out of the total 52 seats won by the Congress, an overwhelming majority of 41 seats were exclusively secured from these states. Notably, Kerala, Punjab, and Tamil Nadu emerged as significant contributors, accounting for 15, eight, and eight seats, respectively. A closer examination of the Congress’s electoral count reveals that the party’s notable gain of 20 seats in the 2019 elections compared to 2014 primarily came from the states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Punjab. However, the question is, can the Congress maintain these figures in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections? The answer remains uncertain as of today.The map below shows the political alliances of the ruling parties across Indian states and UTs.Credit: @ichunaav Among the 30 incumbent chief ministers in India, the BJP has 10, Congress has four, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has two. The remaining 14 chief ministers belong to various other political parties. Notably, Jammu and Kashmir remains under the president’s rule.Also read: Why We Need to Embrace a Politics of LoveThe landscape of political alliances, exemplified by the erstwhile formations of the National Democratic Alliance and United Progressive Alliance, has undergone significant transformations in recent years. Consequently, it would be imprudent to employ the same framework today.The BJP has not only established a commanding presence in nine states, governing them independently, but has also formed influential alliances in other regions. Notable examples include Haryana, Maharashtra, Nagaland, and Puducherry, where the BJP wields considerable political influence as part of coalition governments. However, it is important to acknowledge that the party’s presence in Meghalaya is relatively modest, with a mere two seats out of a total of 60.Credit: @ichunaav In contrast, the Congress governs four states individually, namely Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, and Himachal Pradesh. In Bihar, Jharkhand, and Tamil Nadu, the party plays a pivotal role within the political alliances that have come to power, such as the mahagathbandhan in Bihar and Jharkhand, and the Secular Progressive Alliance in Tamil Nadu.Credit: @ichunaav Nevertheless, with the exception of Jharkhand, where the Congress holds the second-largest party position after Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, its political sway in Bihar, and particularly in Tamil Nadu, remains relatively constrained.The Aam Aadmi Party currently enjoys a resounding mandate in Delhi and Punjab, thereby becoming the sole political entity to govern in two states, alongside the BJP and Congress.Please note that the colour coding of the states serves as a visual representation of the predominant political party that emerged as the single-largest entity in the most recent Vidhan Sabha elections. It is important to mention that the data provided reflects the outcomes of Vidhan Sabha elections and does not incorporate any subsequent bye-elections.
