
Representative image. Credit: Reuters
Are you one of those who bought into UPA-2’s shrill sales pitch on the wonders the Aadhaar would do for welfare schemes? Were your beliefs confirmed by the current government’s claims on savings in LPG due to Aadhaar direct benefit transfers (DBT)? If so, @databaazi, a new twitter handle with its 101 ‘tweet-thesis’ is for you.
In a nutshell, the conclusion of the tweet-thesis is as follows: there’s been a bit of a Mahabharata about the savings through the Aadhaar-LPG-DBT.
On the one hand, we have government press releases and articles by senior government functionaries making rather big claims about the savings.
70. 23may16 Amit Shah claims in ToI that DBTL saved ‘Rs 14,672 crore in the last financial year’ https://t.co/ARTL7oKLHn
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
71. 23may16 A Panagariya states in The Hindu that ‘during 2014-15 alone’ DBTL ‘resulted in savings of Rs 14,672 cr’ https://t.co/pdyb9IslXR
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
72. 26may16 BS (SPSingh) states DBTL removed 33m ‘fake/duplicate’ conns leading to ‘savings of Rs 21,672cr’ in 2yrs https://t.co/tKy2E4T3p1
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
The chief economic advisor (CEA) played a key role in churning out these estimates.
10. 2jul15 At UNDP event, CEA claims 25% reduction in sub. consumption and savings of Rs. 12,700 cr from DBTL (1/2) https://t.co/HO64cfjZpL
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 28, 2016
16. 22jul15 CEA article in NYT claims DBTL ‘reduced..“leakages,” resulting in..fiscal savings of about $2 billion’ https://t.co/vzQoBImcTL
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 28, 2016
Each time these press releases are issued, they get wide coverage in mainstream media – Indian Express/Financial Express, Business Standard, The Hindu, Times of India/Economic Times, Livemint and the like.
On the other hand, there have been rejoinders challenging the government’s numbers. The main challenge has come from the International Institute of Sustainable Development (IISD) and, more recently, from the comptroller and auditor general (CAG).
5. 18nov14 iisd publishes note stating DBTL will not reduce subsidy expenditure, ‘potentially even increasing it’ https://t.co/jclrCcnfdJ
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 28, 2016
6. 9mar15 iisd publishes detailed note explaining why DBTL is not subsidy reform and will not result in any savings https://t.co/Dk1cXwUg7k
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 28, 2016
20. 1oct15 iisd publishes ‘ghost savings’ note, shows max FY15 saving Rs 143cr before costs https://t.co/YLKAPTF604 pic.twitter.com/8RGk2Omk2l
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 28, 2016
21. 5oct15 iisd note republished in the Wire https://t.co/Ur4vO61HeN
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 28, 2016
22. 7oct15 moneylife publishes article on iisd report https://t.co/jLZxVazooW
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 28, 2016
23. 7oct15 IE (@misraudit) publishes article on iisd report https://t.co/Gui67lpa2F
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 28, 2016
24. 8oct15 BS publishes first article on iisd report https://t.co/oLwgOWreNp
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 28, 2016
25. 9oct15 BS publishes second article on iisd report. ET/ToI, the Hindu and livemint do not report https://t.co/rEIqYAWXJO
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 28, 2016
33. 27feb16 iisd publishes note explaining why Rs 14,672cr ‘a technical impossibility’ (1/3) https://t.co/FT2FC0ktQh pic.twitter.com/rnVYgoqaVy
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
34. why DBTL did not block 3.3cr conns, why min net *cost* of DBTL was Rs 97cr in FY15 (2/3) https://t.co/FT2FC0ktQh pic.twitter.com/WoQR0xteOM
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
35. and why impact of Aadhaar was Rs 12-14cr in FY 15 *before costs* (actual negative) (3/3) https://t.co/FT2FC0ktQh pic.twitter.com/3dehtveUSw
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
92. 12aug16 CAG publishes report on DBTL, states that claim DBTL blocked 3.3cr conns is false, that FY15 savings(1/3)https://t.co/HsZRwNfphH
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
93. were insignificant (most recent govt claim was Rs 14,818cr), and estimates total reduction in subsidy (2/3) https://t.co/HsZRwNfphH
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
94. due to lower sales in apr-dec FY16 *due to all factors* (not just DBTL) at Rs. 1,764cr (3/3) https://t.co/HsZRwNfphH
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
95. 12aug16 The Hindu reports CAG findings, wrongly states CAG’s ‘₹1,763cr’ estimate relates solely to DBTL https://t.co/c2uDxE7JpL
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
96. 12aug16 PTI reports CAG findings, wrongly states Rs1,764cr fig relates solely to DBTL https://t.co/bFoZYmSjER https://t.co/Mctb8mtdPC
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
Facts vs Charms
As things stand, the government is losing. But it is losing only the facts-game. As far as the public impression of Aadhaar-LPG-DBT is concerned, the government is far ahead in the race.
For instance, the tweet-thesis documents how soon after Business Standard and Wall Street Journal question the government’s claims (which originate in the CEA’s office), the CEA begins to express doubts and soon clarifies in the Indian Express that it was ‘potential’ savings they had in mind, not ‘actual’.
With the government in a difficult situation, the charm tap was turned on. Within two weeks of this major loss of face on the fact-battle, Shekhar Gupta did a congratulatory episode of ‘Walk the Talk’ on NDTV with Nandan Nilekani, with little mention of the controversy.
54. 8apr16 On ndtv Nilekani claims DBTL justifies Aadhaar, says Ad ‘saved 2bn dollars just in LPG alone’(04:45)(1/2) https://t.co/O8o324fImM
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
55. Shekhar G agrees, stating ‘in fact that [DBTL] is the *most* successful scheme of this government’ (04:45) (2/2) https://t.co/O8o324fImM
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
What explains this anomaly of public impressions being divorced from facts? It appears that the mainstream media’s current functioning must share much of the blame.
Lack of an editorial line
One interesting insight from the tweet-thesis is how many publications appear to have no ‘institutional memory’. For example, while Business Standard, The Economic Times and The Hindu questioned the government’s claims using IISD’s estimates, when they publish the CAG’s results, they do not refer back to their own IISD-based articles that corroborate the CAG’s stand (T#97-99). This is an important omission: for the reader, if two independent sources are saying the same thing it adds weight to the evidence.
97. 13aug16 BS (@shinejac) reports CAG findings. No mention of iisd calcs or previous reporting. https://t.co/FDjcOUISiy
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
98. 13aug16 ET reports CAG findings. No mention of iisd calcs or previous reporting. https://t.co/MN3zg362pM
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
99. 13aug16 The Hindu publishes further article on CAG report. No mention of iisd calcs or previous reporting. https://t.co/TI4afzUCzM
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
Two, a worrying revelation from the tweet-thesis is that leading papers and their columnists cannot be entirely trusted to present a reasoned evidence-based analysis: the tweet-thesis points to several instances when papers unquestioningly regurgitate government press releases to perpetuate the impression that Aadhaar-LPG-DBT has been a grand success.
64. 10may16 BS publishes (AKBhatt) column stating DBTL saved Rs 21,672cr in 2yrs (not true), 33m ‘fakes’ blocked(1/2)https://t.co/1DgtJHHCPO
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
65. in 1yr (not true), 28% of LPG conns added in 2yrs (not true) and Giveitup saved Rs 5,000cr in 1yr (not true)(2/2)https://t.co/1DgtJHHCPO
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
Headline-baiting is the third worrying element – for instance, when government claims are reported in the headline as facts.
78. 20jul16 PTI reports govt response. BS headlines Rs. 21,000cr fig as claim, ET as fact https://t.co/3lBuiKKtmS https://t.co/0KZtuRh7cE
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 30, 2016
We’re on our own
For the layperson who believes what is published in the papers, it comes down to the volume of articles coming from each viewpoint (no points for guessing who wins this battle). Opinion pages should provide space to a range of opinions. This can be seen as evidence of the continuing independence of the media.
Based on the evidence and the range of opinions, are readers not entitled to a reasoned editorial line on important matters? It appears not. If the layperson thinks that their favourite newspaper is doing some thinking on their behalf, this tweet-thesis clearly shows that that is not the case.
Role of political parties
The tweet-thesis also demonstrates the weakness of political parties in the opposition. To be fair, there are a few whimpers from some Congress leaders.
41. 16mar16 JRamesh lays study in RS: ‘Aadhaar based DBT..not responsible for identifying + blocking..3.3cr conns’ https://t.co/7Uf8QqgmV9
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
83. 21jul16 IE reports opposition claim govt 'lying' on savings from LPG. https://t.co/0Cowf8ZA14
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
100. 16aug16 PTI reports opp. criticism of govt claims, with JRamesh stating that ‘the govt has lied blatantly’. https://t.co/CykA5hfcfz
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
A couple of MPs raised questions about savings and the methodology in the Rajya Sabha, but these questions were not answered (see T#31, 38, 69 and 86). Perhaps it is naïve to expect anything from an opposition that was itself part of the propaganda machinery while they were in power.
31. 2dec15 D Goud tables question in Rajya Sabha on iisd savings calc (Rs. 143 cr before costs). Govt repeats Rs 14,672cr fig.
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
38. 9mar16 V Goel tables question in Rajya Sabha on LPG subsidy savings from DBTL in FY15. Govt repeats Rs 14,672cr fig.
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
69. 11may16 H Dalwai tables question in Rajya Sabha on LPG subsidy savings in FY15 and FY16. Govt does not answer.
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) August 29, 2016
86. 27jul16 H Dalwai tables question in Rajya Sabha on state-wise DBTL savings and calculation methodology. Govt does not answer.
— india subsidy data (@databaazi) September 5, 2016
False equivalence in the Aadhaar debate
“False equivalence – the practice of giving equal media time and space to demonstrably invalid positions for the sake of supposed reportorial balance – is dishonest, pernicious and cowardly,” Bob Garfield wrote in The Guardian.
‘False equivalence’ afflicts reporting on Aadhaar big time. A journalist documenting the exclusion from the public distribution system and social security pensions due to Aadhaar recently got in touch asking for some positive stories: the editors to wanted “balance”. The benefits from Aadhaar, if any, pale in comparison to the damage it is causing to welfare schemes, the privacy threat, the potential for mass surveillance through it. It is a shocking that such demands (for equal weight to the pros and cons) are being made when reporting on Aadhaar even when the damage has no significant counterpart.