Bengaluru: There’s less than a day left of COP28. But not enough ground has been covered in many aspects; in fact, the current COP could be regression when compared to advances made at previous COPs in some ways, experts said.Released by the COP28 presidency on the evening of December 11, the latest draft text of the much-awaited first Global Stocktake – the final draft of which is meant to help countries redraw their Nationally Determined Contributions (a set of voluntary steps each nation proposes to take, to tackle and curb climate change) by 2025 – is “disappointing”, “weak”, “a mess”, “watered down”, with no mention of fossil fuel phase outs, experts said. They added that the draft keeps the world out of reach of the 1.5° Celsius target. Similarly, the first draft text on the Global Goal on Adaptation – activities that encompass ways in which people and communities can adapt to climate change – also leaves much to be desired, experts said.Earlier, delivering India’s national statement on December 9 at Dubai, UAE, where the COP is ongoing, union environment minister Bhupender Yadav highlighted the importance of equity and climate justice in global climate action, and said that this can be ensured only when developed countries “take the lead in ambitious climate action”. He had also pointed out that a clear definition of climate finance is also crucial given its importance for least developed and developing countries, and ones that are most vulnerable to climate change. The latest draft of the first Global Stocktake does not define climate finance either, experts pointed out. A final draft of the GST is expected early Tuesday.Meanwhile, 12 year-old Licypriya Kangujam, a child climate activist from India, protested on the stage at the UN High Level Plenary Session on December 11 at COP28, asking that fossil fuels be phased out for a safe future for children.Here is the full video of my protest today disrupting the UN High Level Plenary Session of #COP28UAE. They detained me for over 30 minutes after this protest. My only crime- Asking to Phase Out Fossil Fuels, the top cause of climate crisis today. Now they kicked me out of COP28. pic.twitter.com/ToPIJ3K9zM— Licypriya Kangujam (@LicypriyaK) December 11, 2023Latest draft of first Global StocktakeThe Global Stocktake (GST) is, per the UN, “a process for countries and stakeholders to see where they’re collectively making progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement – and where they’re not”. The GST will inform the next round of climate action plans under the 2015 Paris Agreement (helping countries reframe their Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, which are voluntary steps each nation proposes to take to tackle and curb climate change) to be put forward by 2025. The GST has been one of the most-awaited outcomes of this year’s COP because it is hosting the first round of the GST.A previous draft of the GST that the COP28 presidency released retained the fossil fuel phase-out option but did not incorporate the proposal by developing countries to add the terms ‘just and equitable’ and ‘developed countries taking the lead’. “Without equity, it is neither fair nor feasible to accelerate the green transition away from fossil fuels in developing countries,” Harjeet Singh, Head – Global Political Strategy, Climate Action Network International, had commented about this version. The UNFCCC uploaded the latest draft text of the document, prepared by the COP28 president, on the evening of December 11, the penultimate day of the UN climate conference. As per the new document, it “recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in GHG emissions and calls upon Parties to take actions that could include, inter alia”, activities such as tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, accelerating global efforts to achieve net zero emissions from energy systems, and utilizing zero and low carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century, and reducing emissions from road transport through means such as developing infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero and low emission vehicles.Also read: First Day of COP28 Talks: Agreement on Loss and Damage Deal ReachedThe draft text pushes forward the concept of carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS):“Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies, including such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, and low carbon hydrogen production, so as to enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems.”However, CCUS is a highly controversial technique for carbon removal. It aims to store emissions from large polluting sources by means such as injecting them into deep geological formations – and scientists say there is no evidence yet that CCUS will help reduce the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming. Abated fossil fuels are those where CCUS technologies are used to “capture” most of the emissions released. In the case of unabated fossil fuels, the emissions are released directly into the air. Abated and unabated fossil fuels have been a major talking point at COP28. The only “phase out” that the draft GST text talks about is that of phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies:“Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible,” the draft text reads.And the only “phase down” that the draft text talks about is that of rapidly phasing down “unabated coal” and limiting permits for “new and unabated coal power generation”. It also talks only about “reducing” both the consumption and production of fossil fuels in a “just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science”.The latest GST text on fossil fuels represents “a significant regression from previous versions”, commented Harjeet Singh.“Astonishingly, it has dropped explicit language on phasing out fossil fuels, opting instead for a vague commitment to ‘reduce both consumption and production’ by 2050. This is a clear indication of the fossil fuel industry’s lobbying power, influencing global policies to favour prolonged fossil fuel use,” Singh said.“If we fail to issue a decisive and strong directive from COP28, we stand at the precipice of crossing the crucial 1.5° Celsius warming threshold. Such a scenario would unleash catastrophic consequences globally, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable communities,” Singh added.‘Disappointing’, ‘weak’, ‘watered down’: More experts weigh in“The new GST text fundamentally puts 1.5°C out of reach,” Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare said in a press release. Germany-based Climate Analytics is a global science and policy institute delivering cutting-edge science, analysis and support to accelerate climate action and keep warming below 1.5°C.The energy package is “extremely weak” and includes the phrase “could include, inter alia” which means that everything is optional, he said. The Latin phrase “inter alia” – means “among other things”.“Any mention of deadlines have been watered down along with the removal of the words ‘phase out’. The coal language is actually a step backwards from the text in the Glasgow Climate Pact. The reference to production and consumption of fossil fuels is completely open in terms of timeframe and allows this to be done essentially with offsets,” he added.“The use of ‘unabated’ clearly allows new fossil infrastructure to be built, against the advice of the IEA and others. There also seems to be a cherry picking of technologies like CCUS and low carbon hydrogen – opening the way for blue hydrogen made with natural gas…Critically there is also nothing on how the GST will act to close the 2030 emissions gap. This text is a mess and it is pushing false solutions, endangering us all.”Also read: Phase Out Fossil Fuels for Healthy World: 46 Million Healthcare Professionals Write to COP28 PresidencyAccording to a report released by Climate Analytics on December 5, reliance on carbon capture and storage could release an extra 86 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere between 2020 and 2050. Per the analysis, opening up ‘abated’ fossil fuels could push the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit out of reach — given the expansion of oil and gas projects being currently promoted around the world. “The term ‘abated’ is being used as a trojan horse to allow fossil fuels with dismal capture rates to count as climate action. ‘Abated’ may sound like harmless jargon, but it’s actually language deliberately engineered and heavily promoted by the oil and gas industry to create the illusion we can keep expanding fossil fuels,” report author Claire Fyson of Climate Analytics had said in a press release.Al Gore, former vice president of the United States said that COP28 was “now on the verge of failure”.COP28 is now on the verge of complete failure. The world desperately needs to phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible, but this obsequious draft reads as if OPEC dictated it word for word. It is even worse than many had feared. It is “Of the Petrostates, By the Petrostates…— Al Gore (@algore) December 11, 2023Vagueness is an issueThe new GST text is “disappointing” and “will be ineffective in curbing global warming”, commented Siddharth Goel, Senior Policy Advisor, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).“It uses vague phrasing like ‘could’ instead of ‘must’ in urging countries to meet key climate targets, despite past experience clearly demonstrating that several countries have not upheld even voluntary commitments. It also opens the door to fossil-dependent technologies, such as ‘low-carbon hydrogen production’, and continues to include vague language, such as ‘inefficient fossil fuel subsidies’, which has created significant ambiguity about what policies should be reformed,” he added. “It also doesn’t meet the needs of large emerging economies like India, by refusing to scale up and hold developed countries to account in meeting their finance commitments.”The latest GST text also notes the complexity arising from the diversity of definitions of climate finance used by party and non-party stakeholders in the context of aggregate accounting and reporting of climate finance, commented Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Fellow, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). “India’s environment minister had highlighted the same concern recently during the negotiations. Lack of definition is a great escape for the developed world. It is an elegant strategy – don’t define it so you can’t measure and monitor climate finance commitments,” Chaturvedi said.“It is not good enough to say you recognise and respect the science but then fail to take heed of its dire warnings in the collective action you commit to,” commented former Ireland president Mary Robinson, currently chair of The Elders, an independent group of global leaders working for peace, justice, human rights and a sustainable planet, which was founded by Nelson Mandela in 2007. Robinson was directly referencing the text of the draft GST in her comments.“It is not good enough to note with “alarm and serious concern” the findings of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and the damage being caused already by climate change but then fail to put in place the steps the science recommends,” she said. “It is not good enough to say you reaffirm the Paris Agreement but to then fail to commit to a full fossil fuel phase out. It is not good enough to use weak language or to permit loopholes for the fossil fuel industry to continue to contribute to the very problem countries are meant to be committed to tackling here in Dubai. Adequate time and opportunity still lie ahead, provided that nations promptly return to the negotiating table, equipped with the resolve required for a crisis of this magnitude and a readiness to undertake the necessary measures. This current version of the COP28 text is grossly insufficient.”“This text is insufficient & unacceptable. It recognizes science but doesn’t act on it – especially on fossil fuels & urgent action to 2030. It falls way short of what the world needs. Now we need courageous course correction,” tweeted Jennifer Morgan, State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action, Federal Foreign Office of Germany. My take-aways from Day 11 at #COP28 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/ChQ9monvJg— Jennifer Morgan (@climatemorgan) December 11, 2023A new draft of the Global Stocktake is expected early Tuesday, reported Reuters. While calls to phase out fossil fuels have intensified at COP28, oil producers led by Saudi Arabia have put up tough resistance, reported Al Jazeera on December 11.Just like an insufficient GST draft text, the draft text on the Global Goal on Adaptation to climate change also leaves much to be desired, per experts. The draft, released by the COP president on December 10, is “weak” and doesn’t mobilise enough finance for adaptation, said activists.The Global Goal on Adaptation text is weak & doesn’t sufficiently address the aspiration for setting the required adaptation measures and indicators & for mobilising adaptation finance.We want #AdaptationFinanceNow to close the #AdaptationGap #COP28 pic.twitter.com/dVZrhBethm— Mohamed Adow (@mohadow) December 11, 2023“The document acknowledges the significant gap in #adaptationfinance, however, the crucial issue remains the prompt and effective bridging of this gap by developed countries, in line with their financial obligations under UN climate agreements,” Harjeet Singh commented about the draft. Equity, climate justice crucial for climate action: India at COP28 Earlier, delivering India’s national statement at the UN climate change conference at Dubai in the United Arab Emirates on December 9, union environment minister Bhupender Yadav stressed on how equity and climate justice in global climate action will be possible only if developed countries take the lead.“India looks forward to the GST’s outcome and hope that they will provide meaningful and relevant inputs for deciding on enhanced climate action,” he said. “The resource under the new collective quantified goal must be guided by the needs and requirements of developing countries. India firmly believes that equity and climate justice must be the basis of global climate action. This can be ensured only when the developed countries take the lead in ambitious climate action.”India has been at the forefront of supporting action-oriented steps in response to climate change, both at the national and international levels, he went on to add, listing the several steps that India has taken to reduce its contributions to decrease greenhouse gas emissions such as Mission Life, the Green Credit Programme and more. India has also finalized its Third National Communication based on GHG inventory of 2019 along with Initial Adaptation Communication, he said.The day before Yadav had also said at a High-Level Ministerial Dialogue on climate finance that a proper definition of climate finance is crucial, as is the scaling up – by “several times over” – of climate finance being provided by developed countries.12 year-old Indian climate activist protests at COP28 plenary sessionTwelve-year-old Licypriya Kangujam – who hails from Manipur in northeastern India – dashed onto the stage at the UN High Level Plenary Session on December 11 at COP28, asking that fossil fuels be phased out for a safe future for children. “End fossil fuels now…act now,” shouted Kangujam as she got on to the stage, disrupting the ongoing session, and holding up a sign reading “End fossil fuels. Save our planet and our future.”“Our governments must work together to phase out coal, oil and gas – the top cause of today’s climate crisis,” she said on stage. “My generation is already the victim of the climate crisis. I don’t want my future generations to face the same consequences again…Act now! Millions of children like me are losing their lives, losing their parents and their homes due to climate disasters…Act now, we want a permanent solution…”Kangujam was escorted away by security as the audience clapped. “We are very proud of the enthusiasm of the young people who have joined us at COP28, let’s give her another round of applause,” said COP28 Director-General Ambassador Majid Al Suwaidi, who was on the dais when Kangujam disrupted the proceedings as a show of protest.Kangujam took to X, formerly Twitter, to express her entire protest:Here is the full text of my voice:Governments must work together to phase out coal, oil and gas – the top cause of the climate crisis today. Your action today will decide our future tomorrow. We are already the victim of climate change. I don’t want my future generations to face…— Licypriya Kangujam (@LicypriyaK) December 11, 2023Kangujam also later claimed on the social media platform that she was detained for over 30 minutes after the protest, and that she had been “kicked out” of COP28:She also took to X to say that she decided to do the protest after thinking “many times” about it and despite her mother trying to stop her.“I’m am child who is completely frustrated by today’s climate crisis. We are the first line of victims. I feel the core issues of phasing out fossil fuels are keeping in side in the negotiations process going on in the COP28 with over 2500 fossil fuel lobbyists,” she tweeted. More fossil fuel, agribusiness, carbon capture lobbyists than ever at COP28With experts such as Singh also pointing out that the presence and impact of fossil fuel lobbyists at COP28 was evident in the latest draft of the GST that omits a phase out of fossil fuels, let’s take a look at some lobbyist numbers that have surfaced at this year’s conference.2,456: That’s the total number of fossil fuel-associated lobbyists at the COP this year, as per the Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO) coalition. The number is four times more than the number of fossil fuel lobbyists at COP27, reported The Guardian. And 340: that’s the total number of big meat and dairy lobbyists at COP28, as per a report released on December 9. The investigation by DeSmog found that over 100 delegates have traveled to the COP as part of country delegations, which grants privileged access to diplomatic negotiations. This number is up from just 10 in 2022, the report said. At least 475 lobbyists working on carbon capture utilisation and storage are attending the COP, The Guardian reported on December 8. CCUS technologies are highly controversial because climate scientists say they will not help limit global heating, and worse, possibly contribute more greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.Meanwhile, research by Marc Owen Jones, Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at Qatar’s Hamad bin Khalifa University who works on exposing disinformation networks, found that 1,900 “greenwashing” bots on X, formerly Twitter, may be promoting “an environmentally friendly image” of the current COP28 presidency. The “bot network” appears to be associated with the United Arab Emirates or a UAE-aligned entity, per the research. Many tweets praise COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber; others praise the UAE and COP28 in general, Jones commented. According to Jones, there are 22 “generals” who start a conversation, and more than 1,850 accounts that function as “minions”, amplifying the content generated by the general accounts.🚨🧵1/ I have identified around 1900 Twitter/X bots #greenwashing COP28. They are part of a much larger bot network, likely connected to the UAE or a UAE-aligned entity. They post on issues ranging from Sudan to Mauritania. I will focus on #COP28 here though > #disinformation pic.twitter.com/MrPUgLIVaw— Marc Owen Jones (@marcowenjones) December 8, 2023
