Kochi: Cyclone Biparjoy, which hit the northern West coast of India last week, brought excess rainfall to Gujarat and Rajasthan. But it has “stolen” the monsoon from states like Karnataka – causing a rainfall deficit – while also bringing heat waves to many parts of north India, including Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.Climate change could be aggravating the situation, experts said. Studies already show that recent decades have witnessed higher sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea, and these are linked to an increase in the intensity, frequency, and duration of cyclonic storms and very severe cyclonic storms over the ocean.Biparjoy, the disasterCyclone Biparjoy, true to its name (‘biparjoy’ translates to disaster in Bangla), has been a disaster in many ways. Biparjoy, which struck the coast of Gujarat as a severe cyclonic storm and later weakened into a depression, caused high-speed winds and extremely heavy rains in Rajasthan and Gujarat, bringing the states excess and unseasonal rainfall. As per the IMD, Rajasthan has recorded an excess of 320% rainfall since June 1, while it is 166% in the case of Gujarat. More than 40 people were injured in Gujarat, reported Livemint. Power outages struck almost 4,500 villages in Saurashtra and Kutch.The IMD has also warned of heavy rainfall in Madhya Pradesh. However, Biparjoy has also delayed the monsoon in several states. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Maharashtra have witnessed a rain deficit of more than 80% since June 1, as per the IMD. Karnataka, meanwhile, has recorded a 71% rain deficit since June 1.Biparjoy has affected the progress of the southwest monsoon over Karnataka, IMD officials told the New Indian Express. IMD-Bengaluru’s director A. Prasad told the newspaper that Biparjoy has affected the monsoon wind circulation pattern. However in the days to come, conditions would become favourable for the progress of the monsoon, he added.Simultaneously, many northern states are reeling under a heatwave. In its warning issued on June 19, the IMD said that on the preceding day, “Heat Wave to Severe Heat Wave” conditions prevailed over many parts of interior Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh and in some parts of south Bihar. Heatwave conditions occurred in parts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, parts of Vidarbha and in isolated pockets over east Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal, the IMD said.Union health minister Mansukh Mandaviya will chair a high-level meeting on June 20 to review public health preparedness, reported Indian Express. The IMD warning also mentioned that heat wave conditions over East India and adjoining areas are likely to “abate gradually” from June 20.Cyclone, monsoon deficit, heat waves: All linkedThe arrival and progress of Biparjoy, the monsoon rainfall deficit and heat waves are all linked, Roxy Koll Mathew, a climate scientist at Pune’s Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, told The Wire.The cyclone has taken away a lot of moisture that should have gone into monsoon rains in south, central and east India, Mathew pointed out. “Instead, Gujarat and Rajasthan got the rains. So the rest of the region didn’t get rain to release the heat and was also cloud-less, exposing [the areas] to more heat,” he said.Cloudless skies during the daytime increase the amount of solar radiation, Mathew added.And are these events linked to climate change in any way?“The additional heat from climate change is getting accumulated (or trapped) in a few regions during these events,” Mathew told The Wire.Such as, for instance, in the heat waves that north India is currently experiencing. “Moreover, the intense and more frequent cyclones in the Arabian Sea are also due to warmer seas and more available moisture due to climate change,” Mathew said.Recent studies have shown that the sea surface temperatures over the Arabian Sea have increased by 1.2°C to 1.4°C in the recent decades compared to four decades ago, Hindustan Times reported. Warmer seas are linked to an increase in the intensity, frequency, and duration of cyclonic storms and very severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea, it reported. Two recent studies also showed how climate change is altering the dynamics of the Indian Ocean as well. Heatwaves in the Indian Ocean are reducing monsoonal rains over central India, while the rapid warming of the ocean’s northern portions is intensifying cyclones, The Wire Science reported last year.
