The verdict will likely push the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party into further crisis, clearing the way for the Awami League to form government in Dhaka again.Former Prime Minister of Bangladesh Khaleda Zia. Credit: ReutersIn a landmark judgment, the anti-corruption court in Dhaka on February 8 convicted Khaleda Zia, the former prime minister, current president of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and opposition leader, to five years imprisonment for corruption.The court found Zia guilty of misappropriating 21 million takas ($252,000) in foreign donations meant for the Zia Orphanage Trust during her premiership between 2001 and 2006. The court also convicted Zia’s son, Tarique Rahman, and four others to ten years in prison in the same case. Rahman is currently living in exile in London. There are also other criminal conspiracy charges pending against him in Bangladesh.BNP responseThe verdict aroused anger among several BNP supporters. Thousands descended to the streets, defying security in different parts of the country and organised rallies. At least five police personnel were injured and two motorcycles torched during clashes between BNP supporters and the police near the court premises.Earlier, anticipating violence, around 3,000 BNP cadres and some leaders were taken into preventive custody. Schools and colleges remained shut on the day of the verdict.According to BNP members, the charges against the party supremo and her son are utterly “false” and “staged,” and for Joramaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (Jama’t), a political ally of the BNP, the verdict is “nothing but [a result of] vengeance and conspiracy of the present Awami League (AL)-led government”.Interestingly, the Jama’t did not mention any joint demonstration or show of support to the BNP over the issue. The party cadres reportedly did not even participate in the two-day street demonstrations by the BNP from February 9 onwards.Divided external actors Unlike previous political and security situations in Bangladesh, the international community expressed caution over the latest turn of events. While the US, UK, Canada and Australia had issued travel advisory anticipating street violence after the verdict, the UN appealed for maintaining calm to both the parties.Neighbouring India only made its observations as being “wary”. Only the Human Rights Watch urged the government to respect democratic values. The international community is perhaps closely monitoring the situation as the BNP has called for more street protests in coming days.BNP supporters shout slogans as they set fire to posters during a protest in a street in Dhaka, Bangladesh on February 8, 2018. Credit: Reuters/Mohammad Ponir HossainIt appears that the world opinion is divided over the ongoing political situation in Bangladesh. Five major external stakeholders –the US, UK, the EU, India and the UN are not on the same page. While Western countries want to engage with the Jama’t and the BNP to prevent them from becoming more radical, India appears not to be in support of that. At the same time, the US does not feel comfortable with the Awami League.The Awami League’s recent policy of engaging China and India at equal levels could be another reason behind US sympathy towards the BNP. These differences between major external stakeholders could prolong the internal political chaos within Bangladesh.Uncertain future of BNPThe verdict was announced at a time the country is preparing to hold the Jatiya Sangsad polls (parliamentary elections) by mid-January 2019, with the formation of a caretaker government three months prior to the election date. The BNP, which was contemplating participating in the 2019 elections after realising the repercussions of boycotting the 2014 polls, may have to go on without Zia.Therefore, BNP leaders and alliances underscore a political conspiracy behind the recent verdict to keep the party in tatters, clearing the path for the Awami League.Given the hartal culture in Bangladesh, the BNP’s call for two-day peaceful demonstration raises several questions. The verdict could push the BNP into further crisis, which was already faces multiple challenges of leadership, a shrinking support base, deflection of cadres to other political parties, absence of second rung leaders and electoral partnership with like-minded parties, especially the Jama’t.Also readFaisal Mahmud on how the Khaleda Zia graft case verdict could further divide BangladeshFresh turmoil brewing in BangladeshMoreover, over a period of time, the BNP has lost public support and sympathy. First, the decision of the party’s top leaders to not participate in the 2014 parliamentary elections made a number of its cadres and alliances unhappy. The Jama’t was especially dissatisfied with the BNP.Second, BNP’s tactics of holding series of street protests hugely affected the livelihood of commoners. In fact, several poor cadres of the BNP and Jama’t were badly affected. Third, the two terms of BNP rule were not free from controversy and corruption.Zia and her sons (late younger son Arafat Rahman and elder self-exiled son Tarique) reportedly gathered massive illegal wealth and assets spreading over 12 countries. There are charges of money laundering and links to Pakistan army/ISI against Zia family members.Bangladesh government recently ordered a probe into BNP founders and other top party leaders over illegal wealth abroad after various reports appeared in the international media.A supporter of the ruling Awami League. Credit: ReutersFour, BNP’s shift in stance over radical islamist groups including Jama’t since June 2015 withered its support base further. The BNP remained passive during the 24-hours hartal called by the Jama’t against the death sentence to Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujahid in June 2015. The BNP further distanced itself from Jama’t in August 2016 while Zia refused to include Jama’t in the 20-party alliances on the grounds of national unity against militancy.Trouble brewing aheadThe current decision prevents Zia from participating in the upcoming elections. According to the existing law, if someone is convicted for over two years in a case, then he/she cannot participate in the elections for the next five years. Even if the apex court reduces the sentence to maximum one or two years, it would still impact her political future.In the absence of Zia, the charge of BNP affairs would rest on her son Tarique, whose participation in party activists on the ground is minimum. Under these circumstances, it would be difficult for BNP to put an effective fight against the incumbent Awami League in the forthcoming elections.Before that, given the internal factionalism in the party, there could be a split into three groups – pro-Zia faction, BNP-moderate faction and pro-Islamist faction supported by the Jama’t. The BNP-moderate faction could participate in the elections over governance and development issues. Moreover, given the presence of radical sentiments in the Bangladeshi society, it would be in the interest of India, the international community and secular parties of the country to engage Jama’t.At the same time, the Awami League in general and Sheikh Hasina in particular have become unpopular over poor governance issues, corruption charges against some Awami League leaders and Hasina’s inclination towards radical groups in the country to expand her vote bank. Hasina’s stand has brought dissatisfactions amongst secular cadres of the Awami League. However, the absence of a strong opposition party might help the Awami League form government in Dhaka again.Nihar R. Nayak is a research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Views expressed are personal.
