Washington DC: JD Vance publicly broke from President Donald Trump’s defence of the Iran war Wednesday (November 4) after the Republican Party’s deep losses in the midterm elections, attempting to distance himself from voters’ clear rebuke of the president as the vice president faces questions about his own political ambitions.Vance, who has said he would decide after the election whether to run for president in 2028, issued a lengthy social media post blaming the unpopular conflict with Iran for the Republican Party’s drubbing. Vance said, “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so.”One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:1) End the war2) Focus on cost of living/inflation3) Put America First4) Change our relationship to IsraelOur voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026But arguing that the war was worth it is what Trump repeatedly did on the campaign trail, continued to do in interviews as election results came in and did again Wednesday morning. As he led reporters on an impromptu visit to the ballroom he’s constructing at the White House, Trump said, “The Iran thing, we had to do and we continue to do it.”Trump said he spoke to Vance on Wednesday morning and, when asked about the vice president’s post, he called it “good” and said, “I know how he feels about it,” and “I think it was fine.”He also said he “knew the war was going to impact” the midterm elections but again defended his actions.Vance, who had long advocated for restraint in US military intervention overseas, was lukewarm in his defence of the conflict after Trump launched it and even became the face of an unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.Voters made it clear they disapproved of the Iran warAbout six in ten voters said the US made the “wrong decision” in taking military action against Iran, according to the AP Voter Poll, a survey of more than 100,000 voters in the United States. Most of those voters dissatisfied with the Iran war backed the Democratic candidate in their US House race, but the survey suggested the Iran war was not the leading issue for most voters.Only about one-third of voters said the war in Iran was “crucial” to their vote for Congress, well below the roughly half who said that about the cost of living or government corruption.Nearly all voters who backed the Democratic candidate in their US House race said going to war with Iran was the “wrong decision”, while roughly eight in ten voters who backed the Republican candidate said it was the “right decision”.A former Marine who served in Iraq, Vance had been critical of that conflict and said after becoming vice president that a Trump administration would not send troops into the “open-ended conflicts” of the past.After Trump launched the war with Iran this past spring, Vance was noticeably quiet in speaking about it, a conspicuous change for a politician known for being a pugnacious defender of the president.This summer, he tried to argue the conflict was worth it, telling conservative podcast host Megyn Kelly in an interview that, “If we transformed the Middle East, this is fundamentally worth it.”Vance says reason for loss is ‘obvious to almost everyone’But after Democrats swept control of both the House and the Senate on Tuesday, defeating Republican candidates even in deep-red areas that Trump carried by wide margins two years ago, Vance said in his post that “the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone”.He said Republican voters cast their ballots for Democrats because of the war, the cost of living, America not being prioritised and the US relationship with Israel – a dynamic where he’s also sounded a different note than Trump.Unlike the president, Vance declined to endorse Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for re-election and this summer publicly chastised members of Israel’s government for opposing Trump’s efforts to resolve the war with Iran.Vance, who has been a staunch defender of the administration’s immigration policies, also appeared to be seeking some distance from the immigration crackdown that drew a backlash.“I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement – by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labour, for instance,” he wrote.But he said he rejected any politicians who might propose amnesty for people living in the country illegally.Associated Press writer Linley Sanders in Washington DC contributed to this report.(AP)