In Lebanon, the pause in fighting has not brought safety but a state of heartbreaking limbo. While families like Zeinab Nassereddine’s briefly return to find their homes destroyed and basic services absent, others in border villages remain fully cut off or under Israeli occupation. As Israel continues strikes and demolitions, and Hezbollah threatens renewed retaliation, the growing political tensions within Lebanon and the deepening despair of citizens trapped in a cycle of destruction with no viable path to stability or economic survival.On the night a ceasefire in Lebanon was announced, Amal and Hezbollah urged the over one million people displaced by the war to delay their return home until things were safer. But unwilling to wait even for daybreak, families began to stream back to southern Lebanon the minute midnight struck.Israeli strikes had destroyed almost all bridges linking northwest to southwest Lebanon. Lebanese soldiers established a temporary crossing over the damaged Qasmiya Bridge, allowing cars to pass one by one, while others chose to cross on foot. Some beat the long wait by driving their cars directly through the Litani River.Among those returning was Zeinab Nassereddine, who went home with her family to their village of Yater.“We knew the risk. We knew Israel might continue bombing, but we couldn’t wait,” she tells Mada Masr. “We just needed to see the village, even for a moment.”Also read: One Indian Dead in Kuwait Airport Attack, MEA Asks All Parties to Stop Targeting CiviliansBut the relief of homecoming was tainted for many. Israeli strikes continue without warning and have expanded north of the Litani River, and as Hezbollah voices its intention to hit back, there is a constant fear that wider scale fighting could break out at any time and any moment.The situation has left families unable to predict if they would have the time or option to reach safety if caught in the fray. At the same time, Israeli forces have continued their destruction, demolishing homes and infrastructure in villages over recent days including Beit Lif, Shamaa, Bayyada and Naqoura, as well as Mays al-Jabal and Bint Jbeil.People from the south and Dahieh who spoke to Mada Masr about their situation since the ceasefire began on April 17 have voiced uncertainty about the return. For them, the ceasefire has not translated into a sense of safety, but instead a state of limbo: unable to return fully, they are left instead with deepening feelings of heartbreak and frustration.The risk attached to returning weighs on their thoughts as they talk through the conditions forced on them and the limited options at hand to avoid exposing themselves and their families to further danger.Their hesitation reflects a wider reality across the south and in Beirut where people are still sleeping in streets and shelters, unable to go back to areas that remain occupied by Israeli forces.And that lack of clarity has translated into conversations playing out in political quarters and international capitals about the future of Lebanon.While the ceasefire was extended for three weeks in talks between the Americans, Israelis and Lebanese in Washington DC last week, the political pathways on the table for Lebanon, diplomats, analysts and politicians say, will do little to clarify the situation for a country and a people now in limbo.§When Zeinab Nasereddine arrived in Yater, in the Bint Jbeil district, the day after the ceasefire, the destruction was immediately visible. Her home was still standing, but windows were shattered, walls were damaged and fragments from missiles were scattered inside.“At least we still have a house,” she says. “Many don’t.”The family began cleaning and briefly considered staying. The sight of their house, the village and their neighbors, even with damage and destruction still marking the streets, brought a quick sense of relief. After a month and a half of living in other people’s houses, being back, even in this fractured state, felt like a possible return and end to the pain of separation.But basic services are unavailable. There is no electricity, solar panels are damaged, and with the roads compromised and the looming threat of ongoing violence, there is little expectation of quick repairs.Unlike during the 2024 ceasefire, Hezbollah is yet to mention repairs or approach residents to survey, assess and compensate damages, and Nasereddine’s family does not expect them to any time soon given it is such a short truce that may not hold anyway.“We can’t fix anything if we don’t know whether it will be destroyed again,” Nasreddine tells Mada Masr.She and her family stayed for only one day after the ceasefire before returning to Beirut, driven back by uncertainty.Back in the capital, which has seen a relative calm in the wake of the devastating Black Wednesday attack, Rola Mostafa has returned to her home in Haret Hreik, despite the sweeping scenes of destruction throughout the area. At home, glass from the windows was shattered and some of the rooms need repairs, but she says returning is worth the work.“Your home is always worth it,” she tells Mada Masr. “There’s no feeling that compares to being in your own home, even if you were displaced to a palace.”Still, she remains prepared to leave again if necessary. She explains that her family is aware they cannot permanently settle back in Haret Hreik yet and have kept their belongings packed in an apartment they are renting in Aley.The sense of danger feels imminent for many. Even in the hours leading up to the ceasefire, the Amal Movement’s Executive Committee head, Mustafa al-Fouani, called on families to exercise caution and patience before returning home, while Hezbollah warned that Israel has a history of violating agreements, urging civilians to wait until the situation becomes clearer.And in the short duration of the ceasefire so far, Israel has continued to pound villages across south Lebanon and has announced its continued operation in the south, renewing its displacement orders for residents in an area spanning the south of the Litani River and spilling over to its north at Yohmor; the high-point of the southern front where views stretch all the way to the western coast and east over the valley plain of the Beqaa — effectively occupying a strip that stretches over eight kilometers into Lebanon at points and includes 55 villages.Some of these areas have remained partially inhabited since the war broke out, particularly villages with mixed or non-Shia populations. Residents are still living in the Christian village of Debel, near Bint Jbeil in the central sector of the southern front, despite being entirely cut off from the outside world for weeks since Israel launched its encirclement operation on Bint Jbeil. Movement in and out of the village is severely restricted and Israeli forces have destroyed 20 of the village’s houses.Before the ceasefire, ongoing Israeli bombardment meant that aid could not reach Debel and nearby Christian villages such as Ain Ebel and Rmeish. Even the Vatican’s ambassador to Lebanon was unable to gain access to enter.But “people finally got some sense of relief during this ceasefire,” George Younes, the Debel municipality spokesperson, tells Mada Masr.On April 20, an aid convoy accompanied by the papal envoy finally reached the village where residents gathered to welcome them. “The aid included vegetables, water and medicine,” Younes says, adding that it comprised offerings from several initiatives that were waiting for a safe corridor to deliver supplies.Younes says that, in Debel, some residents had managed to return to homes that were previously occupied by Israeli forces, where they found leftover food supplies.But access to the rest of the world is still limited for the residents. “We still need permission just to leave or enter,” he says. “And even if you leave, there’s no guarantee you can come back.”In Ain Ebel, a small clinic has been set up, though access remains difficult and often requires coordination with UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), says Chadi Bechara, a resident of the village.In Rmeish, the local priest Najib Amil issued a statement saying that the village received aid from American organisation Samaritan’s Purse, a group that has delivered aid in Israel since 2023 and which began sending aid to Lebanon since the outbreak of war this year.The supplies were delivered by helicopter to a site between Rmeish and Yaroun, and a local figure was informed by phone by Israel that they were cleared to collect them, according to the priest’s statement.§For some of the Christian villagers taking their chances and remaining in the south, there is cautious support for ongoing diplomatic efforts being led by the United States. “We support the president [Joseph Aoun] with his diplomatic efforts to go through with the talks and want this war to end,” Younes says. “People are exhausted from these performances of war. It’s better for everyone to just live in peace.”However, for many informed of the diplomatic initiative, it is unlikely that Aoun has enough power to bring about an end to the war, and it is also unlikely that the Americans and Israelis are seriously looking to devise an initiative that will secure stability for Lebanon and its people.That has not stopped Trump from trying to push ahead.In an address from the Oval Office following Thursday’s meeting in the White House that gathered the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors alongside members of his own Cabinet, Trump told reporters “we think that the president of Lebanon and the prime minister of Israel will be” coming to Washington DC in mid May.For a regional diplomat who holds talks with the Americans, Israelis and Lebanese, synchronising a meeting between Aoun and Netanyahu with the expiration of the ceasefire means that “this will not be an open-ended ceasefire.”“Neither side wants things to look like there is an automatic renewal because that will give an image of a stalemate of sorts,” the diplomat says.How to break a stalemate, whether real or imagined, and give each side something to to walk away with is the question today, however.The problem starts with the lack of clarity on what is on the table.“The issue is not for Aoun to go or not to go to DC,” a former Arab official says. “When Aoun talks to Naibh Berri and Berri talks to Hezbollah, Naem Qassem and the rest and to the Iranians, he has to tell them that this is the offer I have. And when I spoke to the Americans [at the end of the last week], they said that they have not made the Lebanese an offer on behalf of the Israelis that could be delivered to Berri, or to Hezbollah for that matter.”For Michael Young, senior editor at the Malcolm H. KerrCarnegie Middle East Center, it is not just a matter of the Americans putting something on the table, but also coherency within Lebanese internal politics.“At this point, Lebanon has not agreed on what we’re negotiating. We don’t really have terms of reference for these negotiations. The first step is to come to some kind of agreement on terms of reference. Until we’ve done that, we’re going to be blindsided by pushes from the Israelis and Americans to impose full peace on Lebanon. So we need to reach some kind of agreement on what we want,” he says.Potential consensus building might be possible, he adds, if Berri “understands that negotiations are designed, not to reach a peace agreement with Israel, but to neutralise fighting in the border area” — a formula more like the armistice agreement as floated by Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, earlier last week.“Berri cannot justify to Hezbollah a peace agreement. It’s going to be very difficult if not impossible for him to support a peace agreement. And this is in fact not the Lebanese position. Berri wants to remain within an Arab consensus and wants to be able to justify his position toward the Shia community. He can do that if you talk about an armistice, he can’t do that if you talk about peace negotiations,” Young says.Joseph Daher, the author of Hezbollah: Political Economy of Lebanon’s Party of God, agrees that a peace deal, which both Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated is the goal of the negotiations, is not feasible in the current conditions.“There’s no appetite among various Lebanese political actors for a peace deal, which is what is requested by the Israeli-Americans,” says Daher.“Among large sectors of the Sunni population, they want the end of the war but no peace deal with Israel. Jumblatt said that, basically, if there’s no national consensus around this, Lebanon should not go forward with negotiations leading to a peace agreement. And even the various Christian parties, except the Lebanese Forces, would not go for a form of peace.”“Any potential conclusion of a peace deal in the future,” Daher says, would probably be the result of a long process rather than a rushed round of negotiations, despite the pressures of the USA and Israel to rapidly reach a deal.Part of that process to gain the approval of large sectors of the Lebanese population, he adds, should include Israel withdrawing from the south and all Lebanese territories, liberation of all Lebanese prisoners and an end to the violation of Lebanese sovereignty and reconstruction.“But, Aoun’s political position in the negotiations is currently quite weak and highly dependent on the international scene for support for his demands. He is unable to secure any guarantees from Israel that it would halt the continuous wars it has been conducting despite ceasefires,” the author concludes.The regional diplomat agrees, saying that Israel’s withdrawal and, crucially, a plan for reconstruction is the central point of any serious plan. “The reconstruction of the south is about everything,” he explains. In order to rebuild and allow for people to return to their homes, “you need to get Hezbollah to commit to non aggression against Israel, and you need to get Israel to commit to non aggression against Hezbollah. And the second thing is very very difficult because Netanyahu wants a war. He cannot be without a war until he is re-elected,” he says.Thus, for Israel, the clearest way to break the stalemate is to return to war.During the DC meeting last week, a Lebanese official tells Mada Masr the parties discussed “the consolidation of the ceasefire and the cessation of destruction and targeting of civilians.” However, within 48 hours, Netanyahu flouted any pretense of consolidation and ordered renewed attacks on southern Lebanon.Trump had exerted pressure on the Israeli prime minister to halt the war on Lebanon in order to secure progress in his talks with Iran, which has insisted that the ceasefire apply to Lebanon as well. Iran likewise stressed on April 18 that Israel must withdraw from Lebanese territory. But Israel has not been obliged to stop occupying Lebanese land or even to fully halt attacks on Lebanon.Whatever lessening of hostilities that the initial ceasefire secured, the slowdown in the talks with Iran in the last week has seen Trump search for a political victory in Lebanon and increase the pressure on the Lebanese side to come to a deal, a former Arab diplomat with inroads in Western and regional capitals says.This pressure has coincided with increased attacks on the south in an attempt to pressure the Lebanese government to act. But it has only alienated Hezbollah further.Hezbollah secretary general Naeem Qassem came out on Monday with his strongest denunciation yet of the diplomatic process being led by the president and prime minister.“This authority cannot continue while it is compromising Lebanon’s rights, giving up land and confronting its resistant people,” Qassem said in a televised broadcast, describing “the resistance and its people” as over half of the country’s population. “We categorically reject direct negotiations, and those in power should know that their actions will not benefit Lebanon or themselves,” the secretary general warned.Signalling the void opening up between Hezbollah and the diplomatic process, Qassem concluded: “Let it be known clearly: these direct negotiations and their outcomes are as if they do not exist for us, and they do not concern us in the slightest.”Outside of the rising political tensions emerging from the US-led political track and from the simultaneous Israeli military track playing out on the ground, there is a de-escalatory pathway that is being led by the French, Egyptians and Qataris centered on trying to integrate Hezbollah into the Lebanese military, according to a diplomat in Paris, the former Arab diplomat and the regional diplomat.“If you want Hezbollah to disarm, you have to have an alternative for them,” the regional diplomat says.But there are clear steps that would need to take place before a monopoly of arms could be established under the Lebanese state.“It is very complicated because the integration of elements of Hezbollah into the army is a very sensitive issue from the army’s point of view, because you don’t want to create a Shiaa platoon in the national army,” says the regional diplomat.The former Arab diplomat says that the Qataris have drafted a step-by-step approach toward the disarmament and integration of Hezbollah that should be paralleled by a step-by-step approach to the Israeli withdrawal, the demarcation between Lebanon and Israel and the demarcation between Lebanon and Syria. “But the Israelis declined this offer categorically,” he says.And despite all the attention on the internal Lebanese politics and the US and Israel, there is no denying that Iran and its talks with the US still hold significant sway in determining what happens with Lebanon.A former Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon says that “Hezbollah got a political booster shot” from the latest war, given the support afforded to it by Iran to rearm after 2024.The regional diplomat stresses that the question of the Hezbollah and Iranian positions remaining united is a crucial component of the current landscape.“Hezbollah exercised a lot of self restraint in the face of all Israeli provocations as of the beginning of the 2024 ceasefire until Iran came under fire on February 28,” says the diplomat.Since last year’s agreement, UNIFIL has recorded more than 7,300 IDF air violations and more than 2,400 IDF activities north of the Blue Line. Peacekeepers have also recorded almost 1,000 trajectories crossing the Blue Line in violation of Resolution 1701, with the vast majority originating from the Israeli side.“So, really, for anyone to think that it is possible to separate Iran from Hezbollah is unrealistic,” the diplomat continues.And according to several sources briefed on the negotiations in Iran, this is not on the table. Rather, what is being discussed is the nature of Iran’s allies’ involvement in the national contexts they operate in and the nature of aggression between them and Israel, the sources informed of the negotiations say.According to a diplomat based in Europe informed of the negotiations, there is a consequential disagreement over “Iran’s proxies” because GCC countries, each in a different way, are aware of the regional threat that Iran could present. They want to make sure that whatever agreement is reached will spare them from such a threat.This is why, in the last week, Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure Lebanese parties to engage with the US-led track, multiple sources say.“The Saudis want to have their hands in Lebanon as part of their attempt to balance the influence of Iran in Lebanon. This is part of the new Saudi strategy to try to be present in as many places as possible where Iran is present to make sure that they can maintain a balance of power,” the former Arab diplomat says.But forcing a collision between the unresolved standpoints in DC and in Lebanon could precipitate a confrontation between parties in Lebanon that are currently far from reconciled with one another.In light of the starkly opposed stances in relation to the talks in DC, “we feel that Lebanon is not that far from a scene of civil tension,”the former ambassador says.§Beyond the regional dimension and the state theater the White House has pushed for, the former Egyptian ambassador points to the people who depend on Hezbollah as a deterrent to Israeli aggression as the ones whose lives are at stake. “Forget Hezbollah as Hezbollah,” he says. “It is the people who support Hezbollah that count” and who cannot be ignored.And many of them have faced significant setbacks that extend all the way back to the 2024 war.The situation during the current ceasefire has already worsened as Israel’s aggression roils onward. Mahmoud Qamati, the deputy head of Hezbollah’s political council, said on April 18 that the group would no longer accept ongoing Israeli violations and called for a full and immediate withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese land.And as first responders searched this week for the body of Amal Khalil, the journalist who was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike last week and left for hours with by Lebanese authorities bodies unable to reach her, MP Hussein al-Hajj Hassan reiterated the stance even more forcefully during a guest appearance on Red TV. Gesturing to the search for Khalil which was ongoing during the Red TV broadcast, he assured viewers that, “Hezbollah is no longer committed to the ceasefire and we will respond as we see fit.”Hezbollah has resumed rocket launches toward Israel and its counter-attacks have gathered pace over recent days.Anticipating Hezbollah re-entering the war, many more residents who had briefly returned to southern villages began heading back toward Saida and Beirut on Saturday.Qamati said that the pause in fighting was intended to give civilians a brief window of relief, but called for people “not to settle in the places you go to in the south and Dahieh, and remain cautious of Israeli treachery.”With the window for durable stability apparently receding into the distance as internal consultation on a unified Lebanese position drags on under escalating pressure, Rana Hamzeh, a resident of Sur, says she is taking the situation day by day. “If things escalate again, or if there is any exchange of fire, we will leave,” she says. “For now, we’re trying to enjoy being in our home, even if it’s only for a few days.”Her husband’s clinic was heavily damaged in a nearby strike, leaving it inoperable. For now, returning to work is not the priority. She is content to take a break from displacement and get a glimpse of normal life again. “People need rest after everything we’ve been through,” she says. But in the same breath, she describes some already reopening shops and trying to fix them in her area: “life has to continue somehow.”For Shady Abdallah, a farmer from Saida, the ceasefire is yet to offer any reassurance on his livelihood. He invested in farmland in Naqoura in 2024, hoping the simmering tensions along the border would not prevent him from building a living from the land. He knew the risks, as exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah were already ongoing under the support framework Hezbollah launched during Israel’s aggression on Gaza.What he did not anticipate were the successive escalations, first in September 2024 and again in March this year.“I tried to go on the first day of the ceasefire, but the Lebanese army stopped me at Qlaileh,” he says. “I’ll try again. I have 15 pickup trucks carrying produce that will spoil if I don’t move them out of Naqoura for sale.”Waiting is not an option for Abdallah. The cultivating season should have begun in early spring. Any further delay, especially with summer approaching early, could mean losing the entire season.Also read: The Emerging US-Iran Peace Deal Is a Dangerous Illusion“What reason would they have to target me? I’m just a farmer,” he says. “But I worry about the trucks. I’ve been trying to coordinate with the army or UNIFIL to get permission, but it doesn’t seem likely.”This uncertainty has put many people’s lives on hold, as they no longer know where to go from here. Returning to their land and livelihoods is neither an easy option nor, in some cases, a viable one at all. For farmers and shepherds in particular, whose lives are closely tied to land and depend entirely on it, there are very few alternatives.Abdallah says that giving up the land in Naqoura or selling it is not an option either, even if it means financial loss. The quality of the soil, the beauty of the landscape, his relationship to the land and the effort he has invested all amount to something far greater than financial value alone.“I have another plot of land closer to Saida, but all my work is in the South,” Abdallah says. “I know that it is just a matter of time before we return, but it doesn’t make the waiting any easier.”In Dahieh, Rola Mostafa is prepared for the uncertain ceasefire not to hold. “This time we are ready for another displacement, emotionally and physically. Yes, it will be tiring but we know we’re doing it for a greater cause, which is to support the resistance against Israel,” she says.And for residents of border villages in the south, who have not been able to return at all since the 2024 war as Israel retained freedom to move and destroy their homes during the ceasefire agreement at the time, the new conditions only continue an ongoing chapter.“No one understands our pain except those from the border,” Mariam Hamdan, from Mays al-Jabal tells Mada Masr.Mays al-Jabal is a frontline village roughly one kilometer from the Israeli border. It has faced repeated waves of destruction across both the current war and previous escalations. During the 2024 ceasefire, Israel destroyed large parts of the town, including civilian houses and farmland, but did not establish positions inside it.This time around, Israeli forces have carried out ground incursions and systematic demolitions using heavy machinery, leveling entire sections of residential areas and infrastructure — ensuring the destruction of what remained intact from the last war. The town now falls within Israel’s declared buffer zone, restricting civilian return and raising fears that return may be delayed indefinitely.On Monday, Aoun’s office released a statement rebuking criticism of its decision to go ahead with talks in Washington. “Some hold us accountable for deciding to go to negotiations on the pretext of a lack of national consensus, and I ask: ‘When you went to war, did you first obtain national consensus?’”The comment drives home the stark reality of the cyclical nature of politics in Lebanon, according to Daher.“While some voices within the Shia community may have been critical of Hezbollah’s decision to enter the war at the beginning of March, the reactions and policies of the Lebanese government confirmed to them that there’s no other choice than Hezbollah to protect them,” Daher says.“The Lebanese state cannot claim to be seeking a monopoly over the right to violence in order to affirm its sovereignty when it cannot [exercise that monopoly]. It withdrew its army from the south and moreover it doesn’t provide any kind of protection or socio-economic alternative for the Lebanese population or for the kind of Shia popular base of Hezbollah.”“In addition, during the latest war, we saw hostile reactions against Shia populations displaced toward other areas. Shia were often refused housing, not only out of fear of Israeli bombing, but also because they were deemed responsible, as they were automatically affiliated with Hezbollah, of the war against Lebanon. This is also part of Israeli policy of nurturing sectarian tensions in Lebanon. More generally, large sectors of Shia in Lebanon saw negative reactions of the Lebanese state and of sectors of the Lebanese media toward them, while feeling continuously threatened by Israel, and to a lesser extent by the new government Syria and as well within the country, because of the hostility shown towards them.”And for Daher, today, it is Hezbollah, mostly through financing from Iran, that will probably continue to meet the needs of large sectors of the Shia population, because of the absence of any actions and policy of the Lebanese government to tackle this issue and its dependence on foreign funding. At the same time, Hezbollah’s isolation on the national scene will most likely further be entrenched, as much for its own policies as due to foreign pressures, creating further tensions in the country.Before the latest escalation, Hamdan had hoped to at least rent a home closer to Mays al-Jabal and restart her life there, but even that option is now off the page. Instead, she continues her journey of displacement, which has already seen her move between Sur, Nabatieh and the Chouf region, where she is now living.Hamdan has not lost hope of returning, but the heartbreak and sadness continue to build, a feeling shared by all residents of the border region for whom the churning debate about political talks feels distant from their daily reality.“What can the government do for us?” she says. “They don’t care about us. We feel abandoned. We don’t expect anything from these talks.”“People think peace means their areas are safe. But we haven’t had a single day of peace in years.”This article has been republished from Progressive International.