New Delhi: While both sides vigorously deny that China will be the elephant in the room when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets US President Joe Biden in the White House, it will certainly loom over the two countries’ talks on the Indo-Pacific and forge stronger defence relations.The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s re-scheduled visit to Beijing concluded just before the Indian PM arrived on American territory, which has further drawn attention to the intertwined complex equation between the three countries.While US and Chinese scholars have differing perceptions about the outcome of the trip, there is consensus that it marks some progress in their tense ties, as even acknowledged by Chinese officials. Blinken reiterated US’s one-China policy and asserted, “We do not support Taiwan independence”. At the same time, China played hardball on the US proposal for a military-to-military hotline, which seemed part of the narration sculpted by Beijing that Washington is more eager for stability in ties.Also Read: US Sees India as an Increasingly Weaker Player in South AsiaSpeaking with The Wire, Shiv Nadar University’s professor for international relations Jabin T. Jacob said that while he always had concerns that the US would pursue its own interests with China without any thought about its partners and allies, he didn’t think that there was any change in US policy, despite the headlines about Taiwan and others. “So, in that sense, there is little that India needs to worry about, at least in terms of the outcomes of the Blinken visit,” he said. Namrata Hasija, of the Delhi-based think tank Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, said that she was surprised by Blinken’s statement on Taiwan’s independence. While it is a reiteration of past policy, she felt that the context of his remarks should also be seen against the backdrop of the last three years of cross-strait hostilities from Beijing.Hasija noted that this also came when Taiwan will be going for presidential and legislative assembly elections in six months. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party is independence-leaning and is slated to be victorious, even as a new Beijing-friendly opposition party is gaining popularity in the polls.Echoing Jacob’s views, Sana Hashmi, fellow at Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation and George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, also believed that there would be “no significant impact” US-India relations.Antony Blinken and Xi Jinping. Photo: Screengrab via Twitter“While the China factor is a catalyst for the deepening of the US-India relations, the foundation of this bilateral relationship is based on its own merits. India also views its relationship with China through a bilateral lens, focusing on its own dynamics and prioritising its own interests. India is not actively seeking overt participation in an anti-China coalition,” she said.While India remains coy about being strongly critical of China, close relations with the US have been deployed indirectly in the platform of public opinion during the ongoing confrontation at the boundary with Beijing. For example, Indian officials flaunted that foundational agreements signed with the US had allowed New Delhi to access cold weather clothing for Indian soldiers posted at the stand-off with China at the Line of Actual Control in 2020.Jacob pointed out that the key issue has been the US not showing urgency in trying to curb China’s aggressive policies towards other countries. “But perhaps, the problem we should worry about is that the Americans are not going as fast and as hard as they could to counter Chinese bad behaviour with other countries. The Americans are, for the moment, only concerned about the big ticket issues – the bilateral ones, Taiwan and Russia. They might help India with military assets but this is episodic and the Quad seems stuck in a sub-optimal path of dealing with non-traditional security issues,” he said.Incidentally, Kenneth Juster, a former US ambassador to India, had noted that New Delhi had been sensitive about not mentioning China in any joint communication or Quad statements. He said India was sensitive about “not poking China in the eye”. Hashmi analysed that China had “sought to portray it as the US reaching out to China, suggesting that the US is eager to address contentious issues”. But, she said that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with Blinken does indicate China was willing to reopen a high-level channel of communication.“While Blinken’s visit was considered a diplomatic breakthrough, the expectations were minimal, and the outcomes are not exactly positive. One example is Biden’s recent comments regarding Xi being a dictator. The rapprochement has a long way to go. Then, most readouts from the Chinese side were also accusatory,” she said.The Taiwan-based researcher also added that most countries who are allied with the US or have a close partnership would “prefer the US-China relations to return to normalcy”.Also Read: As Modi Goes to Washington, India Must Not Lose Sight of the Choices It FacesBiden ruffles feathersOn Blinken’s return, US President Biden had praised him for doing a good job, but then his remarks at a fund-raising event in California on Tuesday characterising Xi as a ‘dictator’ ruffled feathers in China.Speaking about the US shooting down a Chinese spy balloon, Biden said, “That’s a great embarrassment for dictators. When they didn’t know what happened.” The furore over the Chinese spy balloon had led to the postponement of Blinken’s visit to Beijing in February. Before he wrapped up his visit in Beijing, Blinken had said that the matter of the spy balloon was over: “That chapter should be closed.”China was quick to respond that Biden’s description was “extremely absurd and irresponsible”. The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that the remarks were “an open political provocation” that violated diplomatic etiquette.While the Chinese foreign ministry reacted negatively to Biden’s words, Beijing had largely indicated that it was willing to bring down the tensions while differences persist. On Tuesday, one of China’s pre-eminent international relations scholars, Yan Xuetong, said that the main takeaway was that both sides had agreed to show restraint.“I think that Blinken’s visit should be seen as a basic consensus reached between China and the US. That is, they want to maintain order in the Taiwan Strait region and prevent war. This is the consensus between both sides,” Yan, who is also the director of Tsinghua University’s Institute of International Studies, told reporters.There will be more chances of interaction at even the highest level this year, with both Biden and Xi attending the G-20 summit in New Delhi in September. Two months later, the Chinese President will also attend the APEC summit in November in the US.He noted that while the meeting reassured the rest of the world, it did not mean conflicts and frictions had been completely resolved. “I think the conflicts and frictions will continue for a long time, and they will continue to impact China-US relations. However, the key point is that we must prevent conflicts from escalating into war and try to resolve them through peaceful means,” Yan said.The dean of the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, Wu Xinbo was more pessimistic about the lasting impact of the meeting.“…although high-level interactions between China and the United States will increase in the future, the atmosphere will improve, and some specific problems will even be resolved, but do not expect major breakthroughs in Sino-US relations. Because the U.S. has not changed its perception of China and its policy thinking toward China, it still regards China as its main strategic competitor, and still uses the so-called “strategic competition” to deal with China, which is actually containment and suppression,” Wu told a Chinese news website, Guancha.US President Joe Biden shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022. Photo: White House/Wikimedia Commons, Public domainHand-wringing in US In the US, there was some hand-wringing over the optics being projected by China with the seating arrangement of Xi’s half-an-hour meeting with Blinken.“The optics of Xi Jinping lecturing to a subordinate American secretary of state from the head of a boardroom table plays well to a domestic audience that China is a global power that not only demands, but receives, respect from other great powers,” Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, told the News York Times.On his Twitter account, Brooking Institution’s Ryan Hass felt that the interesting question was why the Chinese felt compelled to project the image of the US at a subordinate position. Hass, a well-known China watcher, believed that President Xi had “moved pretty considerably in his public comments on the US-China relationship this week, from previously criticising US efforts to “contain, encircle, and suppress” China to calling for joint efforts to “stabilise bilateral relations now”.“The distribution of relative power between the US and China still favours the US. As the host of APEC leaders meeting this fall, the US currently has leverage. Protocol details do not change these realities, but they may seek to dull them for a domestic PRC audience,” he wrote.