New Delhi: The White House seems to have again surprised the Indian establishment by coming out with two statements early this morning, before the Indian government could inform its people or parliament. The United States-India Joint Statement and an executive order signed by US President Donald Trump tying India down to being monitored for energy choices entitled, Modifying Duties to Address Threats to the United States By the Government of the Russian Federation. 1. Tariff reduction is not “reciprocal” The United States’s levy on Indian products stands at 18% now. The statement does not quantify India’s commitment, only saying, “India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods and a wide range of U.S. food and agricultural products, including dried distillers’ grains (DDGs), red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, soybean oil, wine and spirits, and additional products.” This means a commitment of zero tariff on some (as yet publicly unspecified) US products from day one. The US also commits to “remove the reciprocal tariff on a wide range of goods” such as “generic pharmaceuticals, gems and diamonds, and aircraft parts” “subject to the successful conclusion of the Interim Agreement”. It should be noted that there was no tariff on Indian pharma exports to the US before Trump became president so this is not a new American ‘concession’. Similarly for aircraft parts. Depending on the specific component’s code, aircraft parts often entered the US in the pre-Trump era with single-digit tariffs or even duty-free treatment under standard trade classifications. The Modi government is celebrating an 18% US tariff rate on the Indian export of goods “including textile and apparel, leather and footwear, plastic and rubber, organic chemicals, home décor, artisanal products, and certain machinery”. But it is doing this by using the pre-deal 50% tariff rate as a reference point instead of the near-zero tariff regime which prevailed before Trump became president. After the Nuclear Deal was signed under then-PM Manmohan Singh, the average tariffs imposed by the US on India were reduced to just 2.93%.2. India is now committed to $500 billion US purchases“The purchase of $500 billion of US energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products, and coking coal over the next 5 years.” The US is the only large country that India has a trade surplus with. The trade deficit the US had with India was $45.7b in 2024, Indian imports to the US were $87.4b. $500b or approximately, $100b worth of purchases by India annually upends this dynamic entirely and could have an impact on foreign exchange reserves and the value of the rupee too. [Forex earned through trade is seen as a much more reliable source of reserves than foreign portfolio investment, FPI or foreign direct investment, FDI.]Notably, there is no clarity on service exports from India, especially IT. The silence is a matter of concern.3. On agricultural products, the opening is imminentIndia has agreed to “eliminate or reduce tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods and a wide range of U.S. food and agricultural products, including dried distillers’ grains (DDGs), red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, soybean oil, wine and spirits, and additional products.” It has also agreed to “address long-standing non-tariff barriers to the trade in U.S. food and agricultural products.” This is tricky terrain for the Modi government and Agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan was defending his government’s position on this in Parliament, the press release said; “He stressed that no market segment has been opened in a manner that could harm Indian farmers, and all major crops, food grains, fruits and dairy products remain shielded. On the confusion triggered by a recent tweet from the US Treasury Secretary about increased access for American farm products, Shri Chouhan said that Commerce Minister Shri Piyush Goyal has already clarified the facts in Parliament. He reiterated that India has not opened its markets in any way that puts pressure on domestic farmers, and that the protections for key agricultural commodities remain intact.” Union commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal made a statement in the Rajya Sabha that the Indian government “has taken care of its sensitive sectors like fertiliser and agriculture.”But the new joint statement leaves the door wide open. Finer details are awaited.4. Trump orders monitoring of India’s energy choices The most important and direct conditionality in this is the twin statement issued by the White House, tying India down to being “monitored” over its purchase of Russian oil. If India ‘resumes’ buying Russian oil, USA will reimpose 25% tariff. What happened to India’s sovereignty and India’s energy sovereignty it has boasted about so often, ever since it began to up its purchase of Russian oil in 2022? The “monitoring” by the US puts paid to plans to buy as deemed best in the interests of the Indian public. Oil remains critical to energy security. Earlier this week too, Trump had declared that after its President Maduro’s kidnapping and US establishing control over the country, India had agreed to buy oil from Venezuela and not Iran. The external affairs ministry admitted this week in a briefing that in 2019 itself, India had agreed to not buy Iranian and Venezulean oil, due to US sanctions. “We were importing energy or crude oil from Venezuela till 2019-20 and thereafter, we had to stop,” MEA spokesperson, Randhir Jaisawal had stated.India has been trying to say this is “Consistent with our approach to energy security, India remains open to exploring the commercial merits of any crude supply options,” but with Trump’s statement on oil purchases by India, whether India has even basic sovereignty on energy choices is in deep doubt. Let alone “strategic autonomy”.5. White House trumps India on messaging The manner in which the joint statement has been announced leaves India trailing on messaging or informing the general public. The commerce minister Piyush Goyal had said the joint statement would be worked out in “four or five days” but the White House went ahead and issued the statements. Does that mean India does not even know when the “joint” statement is agreed upon?