There is no scenario in which Iran can actually win the ongoing military contest in West Asia. But for the country which perceives itself to be in an existential conflict, victory has a different meaning. It is fighting a different war, one aimed at a broader goal of drawing the attention of energy markets and testing the political stamina of the US, Israel and their Gulf allies. It is likely to continue a slow and protracted war of attrition with the belief that it has to have the capacity to absorb more pain than its adversaries.Most commentators have been struck as to how the war in West Asia has unfolded. There had never been any doubt since June 2025 Israeli-American aerial blitz that Iran had few defences against them. Indeed, for this reason Trump and Netanyahu thought that after Venezuela, Iran would simply collapse within days of the hostilities beginning on February 28.But given the stakes the Iranians had planned a different response this time. They adapted to an asymmetric war in which they absorbed the attacks, and hit back at the American bases in the Gulf countries making them useless by destroying their radars and maintaining control of the Straits of Hormuz. In addition, they struck at tankers and merchant vessels, an Omani port, sites close to Dubai airport, an oil refinery in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait’s airport.There were four aspects to the plan – ‘mosaic’ decentralisation, widening the war to inflict pain on US allies, missiles and drones and proxies. The first was the strategic posture that saw the Iranian forces – the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Basij milita – being decentralised into what is being called a “mosaic defence.” This concept was formulated by the former IRGC chief Mohammed Ali Jafri and it organises the country’s defensive structure into 31 regional and semi-independent layers instead of relying on a single command chain that could be decapitated.Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi succinctly described Iran’s defense strategy in a post on X: “We’ve had two decades to study defeats of the U.S. military to our immediate east and west… Bombings in our capital have no impact on our ability to conduct war. Decentralised Mosaic Defense enables us to decide when—and how—war will end.”Every unit effectively has a full ‘military’ to its disposal, with its own intelligence capabilities, weapons stockpile, and command-and-control.The decentralised defense strategy referred to here by Araghchi, seeks to neutralise the impact of U.S. or Israeli strikes that target its leadership or command-and-control and ensure continuity in the face of any decapitation strike. In line with this, Iran has kept almost all its arsenal in large underground bases that the US and Israel are trying to destroy through large bombs.Araghchi’s statement also hints at its reliance on attrition. This aligns with Tehran’s broader strategy of asymmetric escalation that has been noted since the start of Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, entirely reliant on exhausting U.S., Israeli, and allied defensive resources.The second element of the strategy was to bring the war home to the US allies in the Persian Gulf. This has led to widespread disruption of the oil market, civil aviation and has resulted in pressure by them on the US. As of now ports have not been targeted, but they could well be next, followed by the oil infrastructure that could result in damage to the oil production for years.The third aspect of the war has been the weapons of choice of Iran. Since the Iran-Iraq war, Teheran has been conscious of the need for an effective ballistic missile arsenal. After the 12-Day war, Iran’s missile capability was significantly degraded due to targeted Israeli strikes. Since June, it has ramped up its production and replenished much of its stock. Though the rate of missile launches has come down, it has by no means ended. The Israelis and the Americans have targeted the limited number of launchers that the Iranians had, but some videos circulating indicate that they may have created underground silos which are hard to detect.Iran has a number of ballistic missiles to strike fixed, high value targets at longer ranges. The deadliest in the Fattah 1 which is hypersonic and with a manoeuvrable warhead to defeat traditional missile shields. Reportedly there is also the Fattah-2 which is a hypersonic cruise missile designed to offer greater manoeuvrability. The Fateh 110 family of solid fuel missiles are highly regarded for their rapid launch readiness and accuracy of 10-25 m CEP. To counter interceptions, Iran has begun using cluster munitions that burst at high altitudes, though less effective against hardened targets, they are much harder to intercept.Another aspect of the asymmetric strategy has been the use of Shahed 136 and the jet powered Shahed-236 drones which have proved remarkably effective in their strikes on the Gulf targets. The Iranians have been able to produce them in significant numbers and though slow and vulnerable, when used in swarm tactics they can often defeat sophisticated defences. Some drones have been obtained from Russia and feature the Russian designed jam-resistant navigation systems like the Kometa-M.The Iranians also have a number of low flying cruise missiles like the Paveh, Soumar, Ya-Ali, Quds variants and Ra’ad for land attack and anti-ship roles. The innovation is in the tactic of using the missiles, cruise missiles and drones as a hybrid package in a swarm to confuse defences. The accuracy of all these systems has been enhanced by the Iranian shift from GPS to the Chinese BeiDou-3 satellite constellation.The Americans say they have sunk the Iranian navy. This is true of its larger ships, but they still have a large number of small fast-attack craft, as well as some 28-30 submarines, midget submarines and unmanned undersea vehicles UUVs. They also have the capacity to lay mines by missiles and UUVs. Iran has 3 larger Kilo class submarines, several medium Fateh class submarines, small Ghadir-class submarines as well as Nahang and other mini-subs for coastal defence which are highly armed with mines, torpedoes and even anti-ship missiles. They also have a fleet of highly agile speedboats They have also tested UUVs two years ago and their strategy will be swarming attacks using missiles, speedboats and UUVs operating together.The fourth element has been Iran’s proxies as a method of warfare. Its so-called “Axis of Resistance,” consisting of Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and other Palestinian groups, as well as Iraqi militant groups, allowed it to efficiently and effectively use its strategy of asymmetric warfare. While much of the Axis was severely weakened in the following months and years of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel, Hezbollah has once again emerged in the present conflict, likely looking to open up a second front for Israel in Lebanon to assist Iran in stretching Israel’s resources. On Thursday, Reuters reported that Hezbollah’s elite fighting group, the Radwan force, deployed to the Lebanese-Israeli border to confront and block advances by Israeli tanks.So far the Houthis have not entered the fray, but if the war intensifies, they could and this would be a major development as it could lead to coordinated strikes on Red Sea lanes and disruption of global trade.By March 13, Iranian sources said that the country had fired over 800 ballistic and naval missiles and almost 2,400 drones with 40 % targeting Israel and 60 % at US bases across the region. Estimates vary, but it is said that Iran has lost 60 per cent of its missile launchers by March 13. But by the same measure Israel has been denuded of its supplies of missile defence systems. There has been a sharp reduction in the number of missiles and drones Iran is launching in the second week of the war but this could well be a tactical shift to preserve launchers and focus more on using the Shaheds. Notably, however, Iran still has a say on what goes through the Straits of Hormuz.The next phase now shifts to the control of the Hormuz Straits. Iran has effectively closed the straits through which 20% of the world’s oil resources flow. The US naval armada is out at sea in the Arabian Gulf formulating its plans which may included a limited move to occupy the small islands Hormuz, Abu Musa, Qeshm, Larak, and Hengam. At the very head of the strait is Iran’s principal port Bandar Abbas. The US is reportedly shifting marines to the area and may attempt to contest the control of the strait by occupying the islands. The US will aim to cut Iranian oil exports, but if they do so, Iran will do the same for all the Gulf countries. But the straits are narrow and easily interdicted and the Iranians will challenge the US with combined attacks using drones, missiles, UUVs , fast speed boats and drones. Just how things play out remains to be seen.The writer is a distinguished fellow with the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.