As the Israeli-American war on Iran grinds on, we are coming to what could be an inflexion point. The first, highly scripted phase of the US-Israeli campaign is coming to a close. Iran has suffered staggering losses, but it is still standing. By its attack, although unsuccessful, on Diego Garcia, Tehran has shown that it still has considerable fight left in it.Now we come to the messier second phase where the US is trying to work its way out. So we have Trump sometimes saying he will walk away and at other times that he’ll double down. On Saturday (March 21), he gave Iran an ultimatum that if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened in 48 hours, the US would begin bombing power plants in Iran. In turn, Iran said it would respond by attacks on energy, data centres and desalination plants in the region. Things appeared to have taken a catastrophic turn.But this Monday (March 23) morning, several hours before the ultimatum expired, Trump walked back on it, saying that he had suspended action for five days claiming that the US had had “detailed and constructive conversation” with Iran. Mind you this only relates to the power plants, presumably the US and its Israeli ally will continue to bomb other targets. Incidentally, the Iranians have denied that they have had any talks with the Americans.Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.Recall that last Friday (March 20), Trump said the US was considering “winding down” the war without resolving the Hormuz issue. “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it – The United States does not”, he wrote on Truth Social. But, typical of him, he then gave Iran the ultimatum he has now suspended.Meanwhile, we can see other pieces being moved on the chessboard. In the past weeks, the unprepared Americans had to pull out a marine expeditionary unit (MEU) from Okinawa to the region and shift a THAAD unit from Korea and virtually beg navies from various countries to help open the Hormuz Straits. As for Iran, unable to defend itself, it has, by attacking its Gulf neighbours’ energy infrastructure, imposed high costs all around.As of now, Iran controls the Hormuz straits and is acting as a gate-keeper of traffic there. This has disrupted the world economy and gas prices are soaring. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through the strait, much of it bound for Asia.On the ground, the US and Israel continue their attacks on Iran and the US is sending thousands of marines to the region. By now, two American Marine Expeditionary Units have reached the northern Arabian Sea and are poised for operations in the Persian Gulf. These are based on two amphibious assault ships and comprise of some 5,000 US marines and associated equipment ranging from F-35 fighters, to attack helicopters. They will join the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group operating off Oman in the northern Arabian Sea.As is his wont, Trump has waxed hot and cold on whether or not he will deploy boots on the ground in Iran. Given the small numbers of marines involved, it is believed that he could approve small-scale operations in and around the Straits of Hormuz.Why the Hormuz crisis is a trap for TrumpThe Hormuz crisis is a trap of sorts for Trump. He cannot claim victory if Iran continues its choke-hold on Hormuz. But reopening it risks putting US troops in the line of fire. His advisers are seeking to work a way out of this and have put up various options including the seizure of Kharg island to force Iran to open the strait.Trump had approached some seven countries including China to send warships, minesweepers and aircraft as part of a coalition to reopen the straits. Most of them have bluntly refused, though to placate Trump some of them have issued a political statement of support. A frustrated Trump has called NATO countries “cowards” and said the organisation is a “paper tiger” minus the US.What is, of course, amazing is that when it was planning to attack Iran, the US simply ignored the Hormuz issue, even though closing it was always going to be the first Iranian reaction. Washington believed its decapitation strikes would be sufficient to trigger an Iranian surrender. The Pentagon and National Security Council did not fully account for Iran’s willingness of capacity to disrupt the crucial waterway.Despite long-standing warnings, the US was caught unprepared by Iranian retaliatory mining and small boat attacks. In 2025 it actually decommissioned 4 minesweepers in the fifth fleet in Bahrain and sent away 3 Littoral Combat Ships that act as minesweepers.So, now the US strategy has pivoted to seizing Kharg Island which has a substantial portion of Iran’s oil infrastructure. It has already been bombed by the US, but its oil infrastructure is largely intact.But the first issue is how does the US take Kharg island when the US does not have any ships in the region? The Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) gathering in the north Arabian Sea will have to fight its way into the Hormuz to be in a position to take the island. The US could use airborne forces, but that would be a fraught operation that could go haywire. About 25-30 kms from the coast of Iran Kharg is a rocky limestone island and is bound to be strongly defended by Iran and vulnerable to shore-based rockets and artillery as well.Simply escorting ships through the Hormuz is not much of an option since they will present open targets for Iranian Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), missiles and Unmanned Undersea Vessels (UUVs). Further, they will first need to conduct a slow and deliberate policy of demining them. Occupying the coastline, too is not easy to contemplate. The strait is flanked by mountains and has an average depth of 50-70 metres. This creates a high-clutter acoustic environment that hides the small Iranian vessels, while restricting the room for manoeuvre of larger vessels.The US may have been casual about it, but the Iranians have long gamed the Hormuz scenario and created a force of midget submarines, fast attack craft (FAC), mines, Unmanned surface Vessels (USVs) UUVs. Iran has already mined the Strait, leaving a single corridor that passes close to its own territory to control the shipping. Missile and drone positions are embedded in bunkers in the mountain ranges flanking the strait. In the last five years, Iran has commissioned some 300 FACs quipped with missiles with ranges from 25-300 kms. Iran also has a number of “super cavitating” torpedoes which can travel at speeds of 350 kph. In January this year, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) revealed a network of underground and underwater missile tunnels on shore and in Qeshm island, designed to house cruise missiles, naval suicide drones and FACs to strike at US warships in the Persian Gulf and Straits of Hormuz.The US has conducted heavy bombing in some of the facilities near Bandar Abbas, and will carry out more if it plans a Hormuz operation. But given the numbers, it would be a brave American commander who thinks he can force an entry into the Strait without incurring significant losses. Of particular concern for the Americans will be the UUVs which are difficult to detect and highly effective in swarms, especially in waters close to the coast.If any effort is made to capture ground around the strait, the US will have to confront the Afghan factor where thousands of combatants with mortars, RPGs and assault rifles will attack them from the adjacent mountain areas.As of now it would appear that the US may try to capture Kharg island and bargain with the Iranians on the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz. They may hope that Iran will negotiate instead of seeing its own infrastructure destroyed. Whether 5,000 marines can do the job is a genuine question. Kharg is actually a loading terminal with oil fields and pipelines that go hundreds of kilometres into the mainland. So by itself, its capture will not halt Iranian oil production.And then we can think about the end-phase. For the Israelis it will still be all about degrading Iran as a functioning society to the extent possible, for the US it will be to reopen Hormuz and signal to its Arab partners that it is still concerned about them. As for the Iranians, they are unlikely to back down. Newer capacities may be unveiled as in Diego Garcia. Fattah-II hypersonic glide vehicles whose ability to alter their trajectory seem to be striking Israel and revealing technologies not operational in any western country.The longer the war goes on, the greater the cost to everyone. Iran wants to show that it has a high pain threshold. When it is a matter of survival, it really has little choice.The writer is a distinguished fellow with the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire – and has been updated and republished here. 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