After the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)’s election victory on September 6 in eastern Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt, former chancellor Angela Merkel declared “my heart is bleeding”, and Germany’s current Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he was “deeply shocked… this is the hardest defeat that the Christian Democratic union (CDU) has had for decades.” There was no reason for surprise; mainstream German parties have proved unable to halt AfD whose popularity indicates that restrictions on immigration, restoring ties (including energy) with Russia, cutting support to Ukraine and quitting the Euro, are popular nationally. Federal elections last year resulted in a strong performance by AfD, which emerged as the largest opposition group in parliament with 21% of the vote, and presently leads the polls at national level. AfD, classified as ‘far-right extremist’ by Germany’s intelligence agency, which is evidently predisposed to oppose crypto neo-Nazism, has resulted in a ‘firewall’ that stops the party from allying with any other mainstream party. Its success in Saxony-Anhalt piles pressure on the beleaguered Merz-led centrist federal government and may presage the political demise of unpopular non-charismatic Merz, especially if AfD also win the Mecklenburg-West Pomerania state poll in a few days’ time.With the Saxony-Anhalt result, for the first time since World War II, a far-right German party is within reach of power in one of the 16 German states. AfD won 44% of the vote and 39 seats out of 83, just short of an overall majority. It is likely to ally with Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht, a fringe party that espouses leftist economic policies with rightist views on migration, and reflects opinion in eastern Germany that its population is treated as second-class citizens. AfD has moved from a fringe Eurosceptic group to the country’s most powerful opposition in about a decade. In Saxony-Anhalt, while AfD doubled its vote share from the last election, the ruling CDU’s vote halved to 17%, its worst result in this state. The AfD’s success mirrors growing dissatisfaction among voters and especially in East Germany, about the stagnant economy, high unemployment, deteriorating health and education standards and domestic insecurity, often attributed to immigration. The mismatch between public demands for economic opportunities and social services and what Berlin has delivered resulted in anger that AfD is able to exploit.AfD’s future prospectsSaxony-Anhalt is one of the smallest of Germany’s regions with only 1.7 million out of 59 million eligible voters nationwide and among Germany’s poorest regions. The AfD, popular in East Germany, is now also polling as the strongest party nationwide. Polls are unanimous in forecasting it to be the largest party in the next federal election in 2029, with around 28% of the vote. In the last election, the ruling CDU and ally the Christian Social Union together won 28.5% of the vote, so that outcome would give AfD the chancellorship if the ‘firewall’ policy is maintained. The Saxony-Anhalt election suggests that there is urgent need for a realistic democratic change, and so this result provokes soul-searching in Germany, where the Nazi hangover still looms large. With each advance by AfD it moves towards the political mainstream and the ‘firewall’ that prevents it from joining ruling coalitions is controversial not only by parliamentary arithmetic but democratic principle. How much longer can an argument be made to justify the firewall?Across the political spectrum, the public is discontent. The only agenda of mainstream parties seemed to be to oppose AfD. Merz has the worst rating of any German chancellor – at 13% – and there are calls for him to resign. The disapproval of his government is near-unanimous and transformative action is necessary. Mainstream parties must offer a pathway to improve people’s lives. Local authorities must be financially enabled to improve socio-economic conditions. Most Germans want a government that cooperates with business to improve life in urban and rural places in terms of economic and job opportunities, and also for social, educational and cultural services. AfD’s critics claim that the public think that economic policy should be prioritised over immigration, and its plans to segregate child refugees into special classes, and establish a task-force to detain and deport migrants who no longer have the right to remain, are controversial within Germany. Among the AfD’s policies is ‘remigration’, widely understood as deportations, although the party claims it refers to deporting criminals and illegal immigrants.AfD being the leading opposition in the federal parliament makes the argument that this is an atypical post-Communist phenomenon unsustainable. AfD wants to stop sending military aid to Ukraine, halt sanctions against Moscow and start buying cheaper Russian energy to support the energy-hungry German industry. Its conciliatory approach to Russia has appeal in Germany’s east, which is poorer than the west, despite Germany spending between € 2.3-3 trillion. to integrate the former Communist part of the country after 1989.What will Europe’s biggest economy and most populous nation, not counting Russia, do now? Germany’s political woes weaken and distract the EU’s most powerful player, and the largest single donor to Ukraine, at a time when it struggles to contain the Ukraine war, US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, and the economic threat from China. The broader contextAfD’s anti-immigration, nationalist message chimes closely with Trump’s, who posted AfD’s result on TruthSocial. US Vice-President JD Vance and Musk had last year endorsed the party. Also watching the Saxony-Anhalt election with a negative reaction was the European Union which fears extreme parties of both left and right. The next 12 months will see elections in many nations including France, Italy, Spain and Poland where the far-right is strong. The concern in Brussels is that the rise of the right strains European cohesion because rightists tend to be Eurosceptic. Europe’s defence establishment warns that fractures in European sanctions against Russia and countries tepid on NATO emboldens Moscow. But Europe’s voters worry about the impact of wars in Ukraine and West Asia, crumbling health services at home and dwindling economic security. Uncontrolled immigration is a huge concern and they feel let down by parties they have supported for decades. Far-right parties lead coalitions in Italy and Czechia, and are governing partners in Finland, Croatia and Slovakia. Neither AfD nor any European party self-designates itself as extreme right. They differ from one another in tone and programme, but share an anti-immigration platform and strong nationalist messaging. Where the far right is not in power, it sets the terms of debate: The Freedom Party of Austria topped Austria’s national vote in 2024, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom is one of the largest blocs in the Dutch parliament, Marine Le Pen‘s National Rally has been France’s most popular party for years. Until recently, Nigel Farage’s Reform Party led the UK polls. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has proved that a party with post-fascist roots does not alienate financial markets.The homegrown popularity of far-right parties in Europe is rooted in domestic grievances over immigration, stagnant wages, deindustrialisation and the failure of mainstream parties to address that discontent. The question is how unstoppable is the far right’s rise in Europe. One answer should come in the next 12 months, as Le Pen is the favorite in French opinion polls to replace Macron as president.Krishnan Srinivasan is a former foreign secretary, Government of India