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No Matter What They Say About Trump, Europe Too Plans to Pressure Iran

European nations could use opportunity to renegotiate the deal and roll back Iranian influence in West Asia.

US President Donald Trump’s unilateral abandonment of the Iran nuclear agreement, while rejected by statements by the UK, French and German governments, may well offer European powers the opportunity to achieve their aims for the Middle East, which are not fundamentally different from those of the US.

The imperial great game continues, in other words, showing Iran that international agreements are but ‘mere scraps of paper’ to be torn up when they no longer serve the interests of the imperial hegemon.

Despite their frequent utterances in support of the Iran nuclear agreement, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Theresa May simultaneously support curbing Iranian influence and renegotiating the Iran deal to include ballistic missiles.

As there are between 90 and 180 days until renewed and intensified US sanctions kick in, the US and EU nations could make a deal to ‘stitch up’ Iran. Scrapping the existing agreement could end up being a very smart move on the part of both Trump and the European powers, if they get what they want. It would spell real military danger for Iran and the region, however, and is likely to embolden more hardline anti-Western elements in Iran, increasing the danger of military confrontations.

Trump’s repudiation of the strongly supported Iran nuclear agreement suggests to European powers that the US is trying to satisfy its immediate foreign policy aim to roll back Iranian, Russian and possibly Chinese power in the Middle East at a time and manner of US choosing.

Trump’s action clearly empowers Israel and Saudi allies against Iran and opens the way for intensifying military conflict in Syria and Lebanon, and even a regional war. Israel now appears to have a green light to openly attack Iranian forces in Syria and Hamas forces in Lebanon. The Saudis will likely intensify even more their illegal war on Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis.

US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the White House after signing a proclamation declaring his intention to withdraw the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, May 8, 2018. Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo

US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the White House after signing a proclamation declaring his intention to withdraw the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, May 8, 2018. Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo

This is US hard power on full brutal display, with the most blatant disregard for an international agreement that is backed by the most intrusive inspection regime by the International Atomic Energy Agency in history, which has certified Iranian compliance. The US has been losing global influence to regional rivals and it is now using its economic and military muscle to try to reverse trends. The imperial worldview which motivates Trump’s administration declared Iran, North Korea, China and Russia to be the greatest sources of competition for the US, and in need of robust attention, in the National Security Strategy (December 2017) and the National Defense Strategy (January 2018).

It is increasingly clear that regime change is the ultimate strategy of the US in Iran, as well as in North Korea. Even European allies are agreed on that – the disagreements are mainly over timing.

Yet, the UK, France and Germany have given themselves wriggle room to renegotiate the Iran deal to what they also more quietly support – curbing Iran’s ballistic missile programmes and rolling back its increased regional influence, as well as getting rid of those sunset clauses of the deal that would allow Iran to restart its nuclear programmes from the mid to late 2020s.

US reputation and public support

On the other hand, Trump’s repudiation and attempt to reassert US hard power could have the opposite effect as it alienates allies and US public opinion – over 60% support the Iran deal. Trump says he’s carrying out campaign promises, but he also promised no meddling in the Middle East and no military interventions there.

Trump is hardly the first US president to act unilaterally and assert hard power. But he may be the first to so brutally neglect mention of soft power or liberal US values as a driver of its global strategy – and that has lost Washington a great deal of global support and damaged its reputation. Trump’s stance represents the unvarnished face of American power driving home its economic and financial leverage backed by the most powerful military machine in history.

The Trump administration argues that its rejection of the Iran deal sends a signal to North Korea – that it means business. North Korea’s leadership, which prizes regime survival above all else, to an extent bordering on paranoia, is now even less likely to let go of its nuclear arsenal.

After Iran, what could North Korea ever do to persuade the US that it has actually denuclearised, short of declaring itself a semi-colonial outpost of the American empire?

Inderjeet Parmar is professor of international politics at City, University of London, and the author of Foundations of the American CenturyHis twitter handle is @USEmpire