When the unprovoked joint US-Israel attack on Iran was launched, the whole world was shocked and every nation had to undergo huge economic hardship apart from the disruption of the global economy. But there was a sense of glee in Israel, thanks to the near national consensus which prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had built on the Iran threat narrative over the years. Netanyahu had a very sanguine assessment about the outcome: the theocratic Iranian regime would fall within days and he would be crowned with the greatest victory of his political career.The US too had underestimated the Islamic Republic’s resilience both at the systemic and military levels. The regime not only fought the imposed war for forty days but also sustained the negotiation for another sixty days. In an ironical twist, when the entire world welcomed the June-15 US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (M0U) to end the fighting, lift the reciprocal blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, Israel became the only country to object to the MoU. For Netanyahu, the MoU became nothing less than a nightmare; the whole edifice of his narrative collapsed. The nightmare is staring at him on three fronts.A personal humiliation for NetanyahuFirst, and foremost, is the unheard of strained relationship with the US. The MoU did not address any of Israel’s objectives: regime change, destruction of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities and undercutting Iran’s support for Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis. The US, after testing Iran’s resolve and resistance through relentless bombing, ultimately preferred a nuanced diplomatic solution, while Israel insisted on a once and for all military solution. Netanyahu was completely sidelined during the long negotiation process.For Netanyahu, this was a personal humiliation and for Israel, it was a “colossal” strategic failure. What followed was a public display of widening differences between two closest allies, using harshest terms against each other. This was never witnessed since Harry S. Truman’s iron-clad commitment to the state of Israel underlining America’s unquestioned support to its cause. Israel has received more than $300 billion in US aid since 1948. The open criticism of the MoU by Israel’s far-right ministers and their open defiance on Lebanon and US vice president J.D. Vance’s public rebuke to them (“wake up and smell the reality”) reflected this.President Trump took the lead by calling Israel a “very small partner” and talked about keeping Netanyahu “a little bit sane”. He did not consult Netanyahu, at whose behest the attack on Iran was launched, while finalising the MoU. It seems he is paying back Netanyahu for misleading him into the war and proving Joe Kent ,who had resigned on this issue, right at the same time. Further, the signing of the MoU despite Israeli objections may reignite the debate within the US regarding the strategic value of Israel in the region.Long back, John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, through their seminal work, ”The Israel lobby and US Foreign Policy”, had argued that unquestioned support to Israel does not serve American national interests. Tucker Carlson, the most influential conservative commentator and Trump’s close associate, had opposed the war precisely on this ground. Hence, Israel is a strategic liability, not an asset. The recent attack on Iran has proved their arguments. Now Vance, who was opposed to the Iran war, is leading the public criticism of Israel.Second, at the domestic level, Netanyahu’s self-created image of being the only leader who could guarantee Israel’s security has been severely damaged. He had hyped about the Iran threat so much that the MoU has created a massive public backlash. One prominent media columnist observed : “ Without shame, the architect of failure claimed he saved Israel from collective death. It was another lie, among many”. Netanyahu fails to explain how the MOU called for “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations in all fronts, including in Lebanon” without Israel’s concurrence.Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon goes against the MoU which called for “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon”. Netanyahu was over confident of winning the upcoming elections riding over a wave of victory over the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah. But recent Israeli opinion polls project the opposition win with 61 seats as against 49 seats for Netanyahu’s coalition. Former prime minister Ehud Barak has called for removing Netanyahu from power through “sticks and stones “ if he sabotages the upcoming elections through military escalations in Lebanon.Most isolated world leader at presentFinally, at the international level, Netanyahu is the most isolated world leader at present. There is an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant against him for committing war crimes and crime against humanity during Israel’s genocidal war against the Palestinians in Gaza. Key European countries have recognised the Palestinian state as a mark of disapproving Israel’s military operations in Gaza. In the Global south, there is near universal disapproval of Israel’s policies of ethnic cleansing, apartheid and genocide in the occupied Palestinian territories. The voting pattern in the UN General Assembly indicates this.Therefore, Netanyahu will be facing the toughest election in his career in coming October in the face of severely strained ties with the US, a highly disillusioned electorate and a pervasive international isolation, apart from the grave corruption charges against him. Vance aptly summed up: look around, Trump is Israel’s “only powerful ally left “in the world. Netanyahu will be desperate to turn the tide. His reckless war on Lebanon and his refusal to withdraw troops from south Lebanon despite the recent trilateral framework agreement and Trump’s pressure are clear signs.He wants to derail the ongoing delicate and complex US-Iran negotiations .Will Trump be able to rein in Netanyahu to save the negotiation with Iran from collapse or will he once again become hostage to the counter pressure from the Christian Zionists and the Israel lobby? Answer to this will not only determine regional peace, and stability of the global economy but also the outcome of the coming Israeli elections to which Netanyahu’s fate is tied.Bansidhar Pradhan was Professor at Centre for West Asian studies, JNU.