Yogendra Yadav has said that the national election of 2024 looks like an election the Bharatiya Janata Party could lose. He adds, “The BJP is much much more vulnerable than it looks.”His own baseline assessment of how many seats the BJP is likely to win in 2024 – please note this is neither a forecast nor a poll – is that it could end up with around 240 seats. He says, “It’s hard to see how the BJP’s national tally can cross 240, which is way off the 272 mark.”In a 35-minute interview with Karan Thapar for The Wire, Yogendra Yadav explains in detail how he has come to his baseline assessment of around 240 seats for the BJP in 2024.Another reason why Yadav believes the BJP is extremely vulnerable is a series of findings about the economic situation, published in India Today as part of its ‘Mood of the Nation Poll’, which have not got the attention they deserve.Briefly, these findings show that 69% of people have identified issues to do with the economy as their key concern, 67% believe their economic status has either deteriorated or, at least, not improved since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took charge, and, today, the percentage of people who think the economic situation will get worse is greater than the percentage who think the situation will improve and the gap appears to be growing.The key interpretation from Yadav is that “with this sort of ratings normally governments get out of power”. He also says that not only are people now clearly expressing their economic distress, but they are also blaming the government.The other poll finding from India Today, which again hasn’t got the attention it deserves, is the answer to the question ‘What do you think of the current state of democracy in India?’ About 48% of people think it’s in danger and only 37% think it is not.The percentage of people who think democracy is in danger has grown in the last six months while the percentage of people who think it is not has sharply shrunk. Today the difference between those who think democracy is in danger and those who think it’s not is as much as 11%.He mentions, “Indians like to think positively of their democracy,” so this outcome is a very big and significant change.He also says that “the BJP needs nothing short of another Balakot to retain its majority. Unless, of course, the opposition gives it a walk-over.”This means – depending on how you look at it – that as things stand, 2024 is an election the BJP looks likely to lose or, if you look at it differently and phrase it differently, it’s becoming an election for the opposition to lose. However, if they get their act together, they could easily win.This interview draws upon the economic findings of the India Today poll and the situation in Bihar to conclude that the ground has shifted and could continue to shift under the BJP. If the opposition can find the right messages to respond to the economic distress as well as the concern about democracy, it could ensure the BJP falls considerably short of 272.