Responding to United States President Donald Trump’s February 2 announcement of a trade deal on his platform Truth Social, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on X said he was “delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%” but made no reference to the claims about stopping Russian oil purchases or the USD 500 billion commitment to buy American products that Trump had outlined in his post.Trump’s post read that the US will “charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25 to 18 per cent,” while India will “reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States to ZERO”. Trump also said Modi had committed to “BUY AMERICAN, at a much higher level,” adding that India would purchase more than USD 500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agricultural products, coal and other goods.Several issues emerge from this in-principal deal which is yet to be documented. Although Trump talks about reducing the 25% reciprocal tariffs to 18%, he makes no mention of the punitive 25% additional tariffs. More importantly, Trump’s post seems to suggest that the Indo-US trade deal rests on the conditionality of India substituting Russian supplies with Venezuelan crude.Indeed, uncertainty has surrounded India’s crude sourcing for some time, with reports also suggesting a pre‑emptive halt to Russian oil purchases. The confusion deepened on February 3, when Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow had received no official communication from New Delhi confirming such a move, dismissing claims that India had formally altered its energy procurement strategy.Since the Ukraine war began in 2022, Russia has been India’s largest oil supplier, providing roughly one‑third of its total crude imports. Just 3% in FY20, Russian oil imports surged to nearly 35% by FY25, as India imported 2 million barrels per day at its peak in August. This reliance has long been a point of contention for Washington, and Indian refiners scaled back purchases following US sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil.Also read: The Road Ahead: Implementation Checkpoints of India-US Trade Deal to Watch Out ForIn late November 2025, a Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) spokesperson stated that the company had stopped importing Russian crude oil into its Special Economic Zone refinery, completing its transition to non-Russian feedstock. Even HPCL, in its Q2 briefing, mentioned that Russian crude had fallen very drastically, to less than 10% of its overall requirements.Volumes fell to an eleven‑month low of 1.3 million barrels per day in December and were at 1.2 million by January. Contracted supplies may sustain flows through March, though estimates suggest a drop to 1 million barrels per day in February and 0.8 million by March, as the modalities of the new trade agreement are completed.Oil remains central not only in terms of price but also in the politics surrounding supply. The question is whether Venezuela can realistically fill the gap created by the uncertainty over continued Russian supplies and what that will mean for India’s energy security and geopolitical balance.India currently sources crude from about 41 countries, with OPEC’s share at an eleven‑month high. However, as it shifts away from Russian barrels, often discounted by as much as USD 5-10 below global benchmarks, the cost advantage is eroding. Future imports will likely be priced at prevailing world levels and will be compounded by higher shipping, insurance and freight charges. According to an SBI report, the decline in Russian supplies and India’s re‑entry into global markets at full prices could significantly raise the country’s fuel import bill next fiscal year.Any abrupt suspension of Russian crude imports by India would reverberate across global oil markets. Moody’s has warned that such a disruption could trigger significant volatility, highlighting India’s importance as a key buyer of discounted Russian barrels since Western sanctions on Moscow reshaped global energy flows.Venezuela, being cited as a potential alternative, could only add 0.2-0.3 million barrels per day in the near term and meaningful expansion would require heavy investment over a decade. Reliance is among the few Asian refineries capable of processing Venezuela’s heavy crude. Yet importing oil from Venezuela requires diluents such as naphtha, which are themselves in short supply.Also read: India Gets Tariff Relief From US – But the Strategic Price is ComingAfter the US takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry, American trading firms began selling Venezuelan crude at sharply higher prices, channelling profits through US companies. There is ample global oil supply and prices are easing, but with Venezuelan discounts disappearing, Chinese refiners have abandoned those barrels and shifted toward Canada, Iran and Russia.Canadian tar sands, though costlier than Venezuelan heavy crude, are similar in quality and far more efficient logistically, as its transit times to China can be about 40 days shorter and the shipping costs lower thanks to broader vessel options making them a competitive alternative despite the higher base price.Without resolving these constraints, ramping up Venezuelan exports remains uncertain. As talks between the US and Iran have resumed, the potential availability of Iranian crude cannot be dismissed.There is no definitive data, but Russian oil still accounts for roughly 15-20% of India’s import portfolio. With India’s total crude intake at about 5.62 million barrels per day (mbd), this translates to 1.2-1.3 million barrels sourced from Russia. If Russian crude currently reaching global markets were suddenly removed, the projected supply surplus would tighten dramatically. Eliminating even the 1.2-1.3 million barrels flowing to India – let alone the larger volumes Russia exports elsewhere – would have a profound impact.Completely blocking Russian crude seems impractical, both politically and logistically, given India’s long‑standing relationship with Moscow. It is not merely about the minimum USD 4-5 discount India enjoys, but about the strategic depth of this partnership. Russian oil sold on the spot market by Russian companies not under sanctions can still be bought if the price is right and the discount attractive. For now, there’s little clarity on how the situation will evolve, but energy security needs, balanced against geopolitical realities, will remain the basis for future supply dynamics.Vaishali Basu Sharma is a strategic and economic affairs analyst.