New Delhi: On April 27, 2026, India and New Zealand signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), concluding over a decade of negotiations. While the FTA protects sensitive sectors like dairy, its economic scale is limited. New Zealand’s population is only about 5.3 million, of whom about 300,000 are of Indian origin. Therefore, Indian exporters are not looking at a large market, though gains in services exports may be more significant, with New Zealand agreeing to offer 5,000 skilled-worker slots. Changes in tariffBilateral trade stood at just $2.1 billion in 2025. India’s merchandise exports to New Zealand have increased from $308 million in 2015-16 to $711.1 million in 2024-25, with agricultural exports contributing $108.2 million. New Zealand’s exports to India, however, have grown at a much lower rate, rising from $547.6 million to $587.1 million over the same period.Under the agreement, New Zealand will eliminate tariffs on all of its tariff lines, though its average import tariff was already low at 2.3%. The deal may still benefit Indian exporters of carpets, ceramics, leather goods, and auto components. India, in turn, will open about 70% of its tariff lines, covering nearly 95% of New Zealand’s exports. Imports of wool and wine are expected to rise following this development. More importantly, Indian negotiators secured protection for sensitive agricultural sectors such as dairy, sugar, and edible oils. These areas are also flashpoints in ongoing trade talks with the United States. New Zealand’s agricultural gains: apples, kiwifruit and honeyOne of the key highlights of the agreement is the preferential market access granted to New Zealand’s horticultural exports, including fruits like apples, kiwi, cherries, avocados, persimmons and blueberries. For apples, a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) has been set, allowing imports at a reduced 25% duty, starting at 32,500 metric tonnes in year one and gradually increasing to 45,000 metric tonnes by year six. Imports will only be permitted from April 1 to August 31, the lean season for Indian produce, which typically arrives in markets from late August. A minimum import price of $1.25 per kg will also apply to ensure that cheap import of apples does not depress prices for producers. Apples priced below this threshold will face the standard 50% duty. These safeguards are important. Over the last few years, apple farmers in Himachal Pradesh (HP) and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) have faced volatile prices, with protests erupting over falling rates. India imported 519,000 tonnes of apples in 2024, of which only 31,000 tonnes came from New Zealand; Turkey, Iran, Poland and Italy being the major suppliers. According to Agmarknet, average wholesale prices during the peak 2025 harvest period were around Rs 41.7 per kg in J&K and Rs 55 per kg in HP. The yield gap is wide: orchards in New Zealand produced around 50-70 tonnes per hectare, while HP averages just 7-8 tonnes per hectare and J&K around 10-13 tonnes. Screenshot of apple prices in different states during September and October 2025, compared to October 2024’s price list, Photo: Agmarknet.India has invested in cold chain infrastructure over the last two decades through grants. By March 2026, the Ministry of Food Processing Industries had approved grants of upto Rs 10 crore for 16 cold chain projects in HP and 7 in J&K, of which 14 and 5 respectively were operational. Nevertheless, bridging this yield gap requires higher and urgent investment in cold chain projects, ensuring controlled-atmosphere cold storage for prolonging the shelf life of apples and other agricultural produce. The Ministry of Food Processing Industries remains grossly underfunded, and without higher budgetary allocation, Indian apple farmers will remain structurally disadvantaged.New Zealand will also benefit from reduced tariffs on kiwifruit, which will enter India duty-free within a quota rising from 6,250 tonnes in the first year to 15,000 tonnes by the sixth. Outside this quota, tariffs will drop from 33% to 16.5%. India’s domestic kiwifruit production, mainly in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, stood at around 14,000 tonnes in 2024-25, with kiwifruit selling at an average price of Rs 61.9 per kg in HP in 2025. Considering New Zealand’s superior farming techniques and low input prices, smalls producers in remote northeastern regions may find it difficult to compete on both price and quality.Honey is another area worth watching. India is a major honey producer and exporter, producing 152,000 metric tonnes and exporting 100,773 tonnes of natural honey, valued at $206.47 million in 2024-25. Cutting tariffs on New Zealand’s Mānuka honey from 66% to 16.5% over five years will intensify competition in India’s growing markets, potentially forcing Indian producers to improve quality.How does this compare to other FTAs? The India-Australia FTA, signed in 2022, is the only recent Indian FTAs to have become fully operational, offering a useful benchmark. It covers a broader agricultural range, including wine and meat, while India safeguarded its dairy sector. TRQs were also added for cotton, lentils, almonds, oranges, mandarins and pears to shield domestic producers.Trade between India and Australia has grown considerably since the FTA came into effect. Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports to India grew from $1.6 billion in 2022-23 to $3 billion in 2024-25. India’s import of lentils, raw cotton, greasy wool, almonds, and wheat from Australia increased from $194.7 million in 2020-21 to $821.9 million by 2024-25. Raw cotton imports reached $258.2 million by 2024-25 while lentil imports grew to $328 million by 2024-25. India’s agricultural exports to Australia also rose from $150.6 million to $217.4 million, led by rice, food preparations, vegetable extracts and coffee. Protecting agriculture and exploring opportunitiesIf New Zealand follows through on its commitment to invest $20 billion over the next 15 years materialises, and even a portion of it flows into food processing, India’s productivity and export capacity could see a meaningful shift. Greater visibility for Indian produce, like fox nut, mango, litchi, papaya, and millet-based processed foods can improve standing in New Zealand’s markets. India’s FTAs with Mauritius, United Arab Emirates, Australia, European Free Trade Association, United Kingdom and Oman may not dramatically boost agricultural exports, but they offer strategic influence in the Pacific region. The real challenge for agricultural exports lies at home: consistently meeting the tough quality and traceability norms in developed markets. Siraj Hussain is a former Union Agriculture Secretary. Kirti Khurana is a PhD (Economics) scholar at BITS-Pilani, Hyderabad campus.