The prime minister used his recent speech in Parliament to mount both an attack on the opposition and a defence of his government. But how well do his claims stack up? The Wire breaks it down.
The revival of the Indian economy in 2018-19 faces strong headwinds because the unorganised sector has been marginalised repeatedly in the last 14 months.
A startlingly pessimistic vision of India’s looming environmental and economic collapse – aired by a senior business leader – deserves our urgent attention.
The ratings agency also said, while releasing its economic outlook for 2018-2019, that the country’s fiscal deficit could slip to 3.5% this year.
Six years after Modi stated FDI in retail would help “Italian businessmen”, his government has done away with mandatory sourcing conditions.
In the US, the proportion of workers in unions fell from a high of 35% in 1954, mostly in the private sector, to 11% in 2016, with nearly half in the public sector.
Analysts have said inflation was likely to remain above 4% in 2018, dashing hopes for any rate cut.
India’s new GDP series comes with an extremely odd seasonal variation in the growth of “financial, insurance real estate and professional services”, which in turn bolstered Q2 growth.
Not only is the real rate of GDP growth less than what the data suggest, it is also likely to fall in the coming quarters.
In the 13 of the 20 states that voted for change since 2014, all have had a declining rate of growth in per capita incomes for the five-year period prior to the election year.
Vinod Dua discusses how demonetisation affected jobs and economic growth, and Indians who figure in the Paradise Papers leaks.
The prime minister’s ‘rich versus poor narrative’, which helped sell demonetisation in its first few months, is collapsing in the face of devastation in the informal and formal sectors.
What matters now is the meta narrative about how India debates, makes and implements policies. If too many people in politics feel that this kind of decision won the Uttar Pradesh election, then we may have more of such actions
It’s hard to look at any measure of data and argue that southern states need to catch up with any BJP-ruled state. If anything, it’s Modi and his chief ministers who need to learn from Karnataka.
As much as 90% of increases in per capita income come from technological innovation. The Economic Advisory Council should look for a strategy that will make technology inclusive.
There was a consensus, members said after the meeting, that there is a slowdown, and the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister will work to find its causes.
Overcoming the problems of GST obstacles, a strong rupee and various trade facilitation needs will help our MSMEs occupy the space being vacated by China and other southeast Asian countries.
In both old and new sectors of the economy, lay offs and workforce reductions have been common since 2016.
While remaining focused on initiatives to improve ease of doing business and interventions such as demonetisation, the government has lagged behind in building physical and social infrastructure.
The single most important policy failure of most Indian governments has been the near-complete neglect of public health and education.
Middle-class youth who supported Modi and gave him legitimacy are now seriously doubting his economic policies. That doubt will soon turn into rage.
Many BJP leaders are attacking the finance minister every day, but there is a convenient silence around the prime minister’s role in the economic decisions that brought us here.
Advanced economies may be facing declining returns on research effort. This makes it all the more imperative that the Modi government gets its house, with regard to R&D, in order.
With the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly-designed GST spreading economic distress, voters will assess the promise of Narendra Modi’s ‘New India’ in due course.
Growth slowed to a three-year low of 5.7% in the quarter that ended in June, and finance minister Arun Jaitley has said that the government is looking for ways to speed it up.
Vinod Dua discusses if the bullet train project really is ‘free’ as Prime Minister Narendra Modi claims and also delves into the current state of the Indian economy.
Ministers were shuttled in and out, supposedly on the basis of performance. But who will take responsibility for the structural slowing down of India’s economy, poor employment generation and agriculture distress?
Obese banks are generally unhealthy for the economy. But the government is happily fattening banks thinking they are becoming “stronger” in the process.
The price of demonetisation’s “success” is now clear – slowing economic growth. What makes matters worse is that India has made very little headway in solving its twin balance sheet problem.
Former RBI head says he warned of the potential pitfalls if preparation was not adequate, concludes that demonetisation has not been an “economic success”.
Analysts point out that slowdown from last quarter has intensified due to the combination of long-term slowdown and temporary shock factors like demonetisation and GST.
The RBI’s data, and the government’s new narrative, is indicative of how badly demonetisation failed. Worse still, more important goals such as cracking down on benami property and reforming political funding are being gone about in a half-baked manner.
The success of Rajiv Kumar’s tenure, who has moved from the left of the ideological spectrum to the right, will depend whether he succeeds in moving the Aayog away from being a government mouthpiece and creating a shared narrative around job creation.
Ambiguous rules under the new, multi-rate sales tax that went into effect on July 1 have left firms confused on how to price their products.
While this is likely a side-effect of demonetisation, more research is needed to unpack how India’s unemployment rate fell during the period January- April 2017.
Contrary to what a recent article has claimed, the increase in FDI to India has, in fact, been in line with the historical trend and the previous UPA government is the one that deserves credit for decontrolling diesel prices.
The government is repeatedly acting on the assumption that the shocks it is applying to the economy are transitory and that the formal sector is immune to shocks experienced by the informal sector.
Data reveals that a substantial portion of India’s FDI inflows comes from foreign investors claiming bigger stakes in Indian start-ups and brownfield ventures across various sectors. What does this mean for job creation?
Finance ministry officials were scheduled to meet with all six members of the monetary policy committee before its policy statement today, in a move that had raised worries over the MPC’s independence.
The confused narrative surrounding post-demonetisation growth consequences shows that we simply don’t have enough hard data on the non-agriculture, unorganised portion of India’s economy.