Dhaka: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) two-thirds majority in the 13th parliamentary election marks its strongest performance to date, but Jamaat-e-Islami’s rise to become the second largest bloc in parliament signals a significant shift in the country’s post-Sheikh Hasina political order. Unofficial results show the BNP-led alliance winning 212 seats, while the Jamaat-led bloc secured 78. Turnout stood at 59.4% in what has been described as Bangladesh’s first competitive national poll in 17 years.Mohammad Rubaiyath Sarwar, head of Innovision Consulting and widely perceived as Bangladesh’s most credible pollster, had projected a 20-point gap between the two camps. His final panel survey placed the BNP “21.8 percentage points ahead of Jamaat” as of January 27. Speaking to The Wire in Dhaka, Sarwar said the margin widened in the final stretch as undecided voters and segments of Awami League supporters shifted towards the BNP. “We saw unrevealed and undecided voters… breaking more heavily for the BNP at the last moment,” Sarwar said. Among Awami League voters who made a decision, “33% said they would vote for the BNP, and 13% said they would vote for Jamaat”.At the same time, he argued that Jamaat expanded its vote share in absolute terms, even if it did not convert that growth into proportional seats. “In absolute terms, Jamaat gained more vote share than the BNP did,” he said, suggesting this partly explains the amplified perception of Jamaat momentum online, where social media “doesn’t reflect what people think. It’s just herd behaviour”.Sarwar noted that his team had predicted that the Rangpur and Khulna divisions would tilt towards Jamaat, and that those projections held. The party’s consolidation in parts of the northern and south-western border regions reflects years of sustained organisational groundwork.Jamaat’s revival under its Ameer, Shafiqur Rahman, would have seemed improbable during the Hasina years, when much of its senior leadership was executed following trials over alleged human rights atrocities during the 1971 Liberation War. Its current position reflects sustained organisational rebuilding, particularly in Rangpur and Khulna divisions and across parts of the border regions.The BNP’s surge followed a turbulent few months. Tarique Rahman returned in December 2025 after 17 years in exile, just days before the death of his mother, former prime minister and party head Khaleda Zia. Sarwar said those events contributed to a sympathetic shift among sections of voters.He also dismissed suggestions that foreign policy rhetoric shaped the outcome. “In our survey, 65% said they want a good relationship with India, and almost the same for Pakistan,” he said. “People vote for their livelihood, not rhetoric.” According to him, “Anti-India rhetoric did not turn any votes.”Here is the interview, slightly edited for clarity.In the historical context, this is the highest tally the BNP has ever won. What factors do you think are in play right now?Sarwar: At Innovision Consulting, we did a third round of our survey. It was a panel survey, and we looked into the 2,20,000 samples that we had in our first two rounds. Those were door-to-door surveys. From those, we picked 5,147 respondents and called them. It was a fully random sampling.The data was already showing that the BNP was 21.8 percentage points ahead of Jamaat, and the data was as of January 27. So we looked into a comparative analysis between respondents’ previous responses versus their January response.We saw some specific patterns. The first was about unrevealed and undecided voters. They were breaking more heavily for the BNP at the last moment.Then we also found that among Awami League voters, 50% were saying they were undecided or might not turn out, but of those who decided, 33% said they would vote for the BNP and 13% said they would vote for Jamaat. And for the undecided voters overall, around 26.6% went towards the BNP and just about 15% for Jamaat.We also looked at what was contributing to that alignment to the BNP. We found a very interesting pattern after the Jamaat-NCP coalition was formed. The NCP (National Citizen Party) votes were generally breaking down between Jamaat and the BNP. Finally, the NCP gained from Jamaat and got six seats, but Jamaat did not necessarily gain much from the NCP because the general voting share of the NCP was low.Also read: Bangladesh 2026 Election Explained: Who’s Competing, What’s at Stake, and Why It MattersBut also, I think the July Revolution of 2024 has an impact. It is clearly showing that eventually, people selected candidates who are rank outsiders and first-time campaigners. That is very, very clear from the results.Another pattern was a shift from Jamaat to the BNP and vice versa, but the Jamaat-to-BNP shift was higher.What could explain this? We saw two specific patterns. One was the BNP’s promise of the ‘family card’ and ‘health card’. This influenced the majority. It feels like those highly transactional promises worked against Jamaat’s policy of a “Government of honest people” or religious fundamentals. People voted for direct benefits.We also saw Tarique Rahman’s return and Khaleda Zia’s death had a very strong sympathetic turnaround on BNP voters. There were major events in January. In September, we had an 11-percentage-point gap between the BNP and Jamaat, which eventually increased to 22 points. Jamaat stagnated during this period. These are sharp results showing the social and economic fabric of Bangladesh. We also need to see that the Jamaat and NCP Alliance probably got 38% of the vote.How did you project that Jamaat and NCP together got 38% of vote share?We are still waiting for a formal result, but as of 3:00 am (on Friday), up to 200 seats counted, it stands at 58.4% versus 38.6%, which reflects the 20-point gap we projected.It showed they added more than 30% new voters, while the BNP added 15 to 20% new voters. This should mean the sway was in favour of Jamaat, but it was an uneven game. The BNP was able to take control and win.People of Bangladesh voted for change. We are still waiting for the final tally, but in at least 10 to 15 seats, Jamaat lost very competitively with small margins. We predicted that Rangpur and Khulna divisions were probably going to Jamaat, and that happened. Bangladesh’s electoral college is not unpredictable if you have a solid methodology.Bangladeshi polling officials in Dhaka open a ballot box for counting after voting in the general election of February 12, 2026 came to a close. Photo: AP/Anupam Nath.The final point is this: In the last few weeks, there was tension on social media. Everyone was saying Jamaat might win. We got confused because our data didn’t match the social media chatter. Social media in Bangladesh doesn’t reflect what people think. It’s just herd behaviour. We amplify what we hear.My final assessment is that Jamaat gained more vote share than the BNP did in absolute terms, so you hear an amplified Jamaat voice online. This is a new class of voters, and they are loud.Polls, at the end, were not authentic and skewed perceptions, but I am happy with the outcome. We have a solid opposition, representatives of the Revolution in Parliament, and veteran BNP leaders – the mix will be good for Bangladesh.What do you make of the overall turnout being just about 60%?We were totally surprised. We were projecting 75%. With 60%, we weren’t projecting a BNP landslide. These two are confusing us.Also read: Two Hindu Lawmakers of Bangladesh Say Their Victory Sends Message to Minority Community that It can Trust BNPFor example, in Dhaka-8, where [BNP candidate] Mirza Abbas and [Jatiya Nagorik Committee’s Muhammad Nasiruddin] Patwari ran, you only got about 1,14,000 votes. That’s just the vote share the previous candidate got, which means people boycotted that seat. It appears that in seats where people were not happy with the candidates, especially in Dhaka, they did not turn out.Many are saying it’s the ‘AL’ factor, meaning Awami League supporters didn’t turn out. I wouldn’t say that. In many centres I visited, I saw minority voters and my AL friends turning out. The turnout was poor because people rejected specific candidates. They didn’t like any of them and decided not to vote.You predicted most Awami League voters would likely vote for the BNP. Is that still your assessment after the polls?Clearly, they did. If they hadn’t, the BNP wouldn’t have reached this tally.Why did Rangpur and Khulna see stronger Jamaat results?Traditionally, they were Jamaat-linked areas. Secondly, the Jatiya Party is dead. Our results picked nothing for them in the North. When I travelled there right after the revolution in August 2024, people were already saying “this is a Jamaat area”. They have done a systematic campaign there for a long time. Those border regions are also more religiously sentimental.Some BNP stalwarts failed, like in Chapai-1. A rickshaw puller there told me he was voting for Jamaat because their candidate was a local chairman who had done good work, while the “old guard” from the BNP had won three elections but did nothing for the constituency. Local dynamics played a huge role.Nearer to the polls, there was considerable hype that Jamaat might secure a close win. There was also discussion about chandabazi (extortion) by local BNP leaders in the early months. Did that affect the numbers?It did. You see why Mirza Abbas was almost losing? The whole campaign of Patwari was about Abbas and chandabazi. Wherever we asked why people chose Jamaat over the BNP, it was significantly because they were tired of the chandabazi of the BNP. Maybe the seat counts wouldn’t have changed, but the vote share would have.During the campaign, Jamaat smeared BNP as colluding with New Delhi. Did you do any modelling on foreign policy and relations with India?In our survey, we have been asking that question for two rounds. We asked, ‘How do you want the relationship to be with India?’ and ‘How do you want the relationship to be with Pakistan?’In both the surveys, consistently around 65% said they want a good relationship with India, and almost the same for Pakistan. So, I think, this is where the politicians get it wrong. Now, if I ask, ‘Okay, are you happy with India’s treatment of Bangladesh?’ that’s a different question.But if I’m asking, ‘Okay, how do you want us to be?’ the answer is the hope that [since] we are neighbours and we need to be good [with one another]. Now, that is because there is a strong relationship that people rely on between the countries. People eventually will go for their livelihood, not for petty rhetoric.So, I think this is a mistake that some of them made by picking up so much on the anti-India rhetoric. It did not work, it did not turn any votes. And the BNP, as you may see, completely avoided that route.”