The last 12 months have seen uprisings in two South Asian countries. Bangladesh and Nepal have vastly different politics, histories and societies, yet both were undone by weak democracies hollowed out by corruption and hubris. Their elected leaders could neither govern credibly nor contain popular rage that led to the uprisings against and overthrow of their governments.On the surface, the parallels are striking. But beneath them lie sharp differences that may decide the future of these countries, and their relations with India.In Bangladesh, popular anger was aimed squarely at the Awami League government. Its leaders fled as protests intensified and Sheikh Hasina, the unshakable matriarch of Bangladeshi politics, was eventually cornered. In Nepal, the fury was more diffuse: not one party but a significant section of the ruling class was forced to run for cover as mobs stormed the streets and parliament.Bangladesh’s protest dragged on for weeks. The government tried hard to suppress it until it finally spilled onto Dhaka’s streets. Nepal’s flames burned quicker, barely for a few days, but were volcanic enough to overthrow the government.But before proceeding further, one must bust the myth of a monolithic, idealistic youth bloc named Gen Z. At this stage, it seems that the Nepali youth who began their protest by demanding transparency were not the mobs that went on to torch buildings and looted shops. The protests were joined by a wider underclass, but the presence of fringe Maoists, monarchists and Hindutva elements has also been noted.In Bangladesh, Islamist groupings moved swiftly to seize space created by the uprising. The fact that Hasina’s regime was widely perceived as being backstopped by India gave these groups an additional advantage. The prevailing uncertainty since then has led to the resurgence of the Jamaat-e-Islami, with its student wing recently sweeping the Dhaka University elections for the first time in the history of Bangladesh. When elections are held – and these are likely in February 2026 – the Jamaat is expected to emerge as the second-strongest party, after the Bangladesh Nationalist Party of Khaleda Zia.In Nepal, on the other hand, there is no extremist party strong enough to make major gains. And despite the unpleasant memories of the informal blockade enforced by the Narendra Modi government in 2015, there is no strong ‘anti-India’ sentiment that anyone can latch on to.There is of course a volatile coalition looking to take advantage of the unsettled situation: monarchists seeking to resurrect the king, Hindutva forces nurtured by years of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh activity along the border, and the right-wing entrepreneur, Durga Prasai, once a Maoist, who has now reinvented himself as a Hindu revivalist. All of these are forces that may want to rewrite the constitution.One can give some credit to Nepal’s youth leaders as, when tripartite talks were held yesterday to find a political solution, Gen Z representatives walked out the moment Prasai entered the room. The talks collapsed, with the Gen Z group registering their protest against someone they believed was an opportunist leader.In Bangladesh, the Jamaat wants to tinker with the constitution in order to introduce proportional representation – a system they believe will help them win more seats. In Nepal, on the other hand, the fight is to protect the constitution. The 2015 constitution was a hard-won effort to bring about a progressive and inclusive polity. It abolished the monarchy, enshrined secularism and promised federalism and minority rights. The protests in Kathmandu were fuelled by corruption and misrule, but large sections of people still want to defend, not dismantle, the constitution.On its part, Delhi has stumbled in both crises. In Dhaka, India backed Hasina too long, only to watch her influence crumble. In Kathmandu, it has lost several friends during the Modi era.While India’s approach towards Bangladesh is visible through the obnoxious comments its leaders often make against the country and its citizens, the Sangh parivar has made no secret of its desire to restore the ‘Hindu’ monarchy in Nepal.It is perhaps for this reason that Indian TV anchors, currently reporting from Nepal, are being mocked by ordinary Nepalis. Given the manner in which the pliant Indian media aligned with the BJP is being rebuked on the streets of Kathmandu, one may infer that the new dispensation in Nepal will not take kindly to any prescriptive approach from New Delhi.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.