When Nepal’s Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli returned from New Delhi after completing his first foreign trip since assuming office in February, he was beaming with joy. Fellow ethno-nationalists of the Nepalese media adore Oli for his demagogic postures. They were surprised to find that he had neither chauvinistic nor xenophobic sound bites for the evening news this time. All he said was that pictures of his New Delhi trip speak for themselves.Indeed they do. Even in the officially released photographs, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks visibly uncomfortable with laboured smiles and stiff carriage while Oli appears relaxed and exudes confidence. The reason is not difficult to guess. Prime Minister Modi’s ‘neighborhood first’ policy seems to have fallen flat all over South Asia, while Oli has emerged as one of the strongest prime ministers of post-1950 Nepal. Apparently, Modi needed Oli’s goodwill to save face on the foreign policy front which the latter was ready to offer. But as any politician that has ever interacted with the former Marxist-Leninist apparatchik from Jhapa just across the border from Naxalbari know, Oli is a tough customer and can drive hard bargains.Prior to planning his first foreign trip, Premier Oli sought and got a personal visit from Sushma Swaraj, India’s minister for external affairs, even before he had taken the oath of office. All it needed was a rumour that he may choose to go for the Boao Forum for Asia meeting in Henan province of China over a goodwill visit to New Delhi to begin his stint. It has been a long-held tradition that Nepalese prime ministers call upon their Indian counterpart before embarking on any other foreign trip. Maoist supremo Pushpa Kamal Dahal – now Oli’s junior partner in the ruling coalition of communists – had prioritised China over India and that fact continues to rankle a section of the Indian establishment till date. Premier Oli realised the risks of such bravado and agreed to honour the tradition, but on his own terms: A one-on-one meeting with Prime Minister Modi and aid packages to match what is on offer from the Chinese. It was an offer strategists in India’s South Block couldn’t refuse. There were usual diplomatic optics on full display, but Premier Oli’s one-on-one meeting with his Indian counterpart at his official residence was the highlight of the visit.Estimates about the time the two prime ministers spent together vary from 30 minutes to an hour in the Nepalese media. However, when transactions are businesslike, there is no need to talk weather or exchange notes about food restrictions for hours.The issues that were discussed in private are unlikely to be disclosed. However, casual hints from people close to Premier Oli make speculative deductions sound plausible. Alarmed by China’s inroads into what India has long considered to be its backyard, Modi perhaps wanted Oli to go slow on connectivity projects that are on offer from Beijing as a part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Despite Indian reservations over its intent, Nepal was one of the first to sign on the dotted lines of ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) and has been looking forward to rail links with the Tibetan plateau. The Nehruvian construct of Himalayas as an Indian frontier, lost currency long time ago, but Chinese activities south of the mighty mountains continue to alarm New Delhi.Oli doesn’t need to lose sleep over Chinese insistence. Strategists in Beijing keep telling their Nepalese friends that Kathmandu needs to maintain a smooth relationship with Indians for its own good. However, if Beijing was determined to push through the Himalayas with rail links, forget Nepal, even Indians will not be able to do much about it. It is in Nepal’s interest to look for better connectivity with India, a fact that Oli seems to have succeeded in portraying as an expression of goodwill.Alarmed at the activities of Christian missionaries in Nepal, the Hindutva lobby in New Delhi wanted Prime Minister Modi to tell his counterpart to check proselytisation in what was once a Hindu kingdom. With the Permanent Establishment of Nepal (PEON) also to wanting the same thing, Oli had no objection to accepting that he was in agreement with the ideologues of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.Nepalese child waving a flag during a peaceful protest. Representative image. Credit: ReutersUnder pressure from the Chinese, Indians have put restrictions on the movement of Dalai Lama in India. Nepalese politicos keep swearing their loyalty to the ‘One China’ policy even when not asked. Both China and India seem to be under the impression that activities of Westerners, especially European Union countries, in Nepal are against their strategic interests. Premier Oli will be only too happy to tighten screws on INGOs in Kathmandu, for he fears their censures.In return for his continued fidelity to the Hindutva lobby and the New Delhi establishment, Oli wanted Indian guarantee for his continuity in office. On this count, Modi had little choice anyway. The main opposition party – the Nepali Congress – is a divided house and mired in leadership tussle. The Maoists have agreed to merge into Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist). Demagogic slogans by Oli are popular with the media and civil society in Kathmandu, who have been eating out of his hands. It makes sense, therefore, for South Block to keep Oli in good humour, watch his decisions and wait for a change in conditions on the ground.Nepal’s K.P. Oli with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2016. In line with past practices, Beijing will be Oli’s next port of call. Credit: ReutersIn fact, diplomacy of appeasement is so apparent that it is being said in Kathmandu that if Oli wanted the Indian envoy to do a Bhangra in the street, the latter would be happy to oblige. It seems New Delhi is all set to let status quo in Kathmandu reign supreme, at least until the Indian elections next year.Once again in line with past practices, Beijing will be Oli’s next port of call. The Nepalese minister of foreign affairs Pradeep Kumar Gyawali is going to China next week to prepare the ground for Oli’s visit sometime soon. The Maoist formulation of ‘equi-distance’ or ‘equi-proximity’ in relationship with Beijing and New Delhi is flawed – the latter’s capital is closer to Kathmandu in every sense of the term – but Nepal has to sometimes lean northward to balance its complete dependence upon India.There are usual promises in the joint communiqué about railways, waterways, Buddhist and Ramayana pilgrim circuits and investments from India for the development of Nepal. Unlike the Chinese, however, the Indian side seldom delivers upon its promises within stipulated time. So there is little expectation of practical outcome on tall promises of better water resource utilisation. There is a difference of perception between Indian investors and Nepalese engineers in the utilisation of water of the Himalayan rivers. Indian planners want to sell the Bhutan model of investment in hydroelectricity for export of energy to India, while Nepalese side wants to consider regulation of water the main purpose of storage dams, with generation of power as a byproduct. Unless these differences are reconciled, progress on the water and energy fronts is likely to be tardy.The biggest loser of rapprochement between the ethno-nationalist coalition in Kathmandu and the Hindutva champions in New Delhi is likely to be the Madheshis. There was no mention of constitutional amendment in the joint communiqué. Redrawing of provincial boundaries has been put in the cold storage for all practical purposes. In Delhi currently for a regular health check-up, the convener of Rastriya Janata Party Nepal, Mahanth Thakur, is likely to discuss these issues with Indian interlocutors. It is being said in Kathmandu that Madhesh-based parties are being impressed upon by New Delhi to cooperate with the ruling coalition of Marxist-Leninist and Maoists in Kathmandu without any reservations.Realising that New Delhi has lost interest in them, the Nepali Congress is likely to take a leaf out of the ultra-nationalist handbook of monarchists and Maoists and begin raising the pitch against India. That will add another complexity to Indo-Nepal relationship. But, for now, Oli is pleased with his New Delhi sojourn and all is quiet at the gates of the Indian diplomatic mission in Lainchaur which has been a regular haunt for jingoists of the extreme-left and far-right, born and brought up with the belief that patriotism in Nepal is synonymous with shouting anti-India slogans.With China’s shadow looming large, the second round of battle of wits between Modi and Oli in the last two years has also gone in favour of the latter. There is a reason that Oli has begun to concentrate all authority in the Prime Minister’s Office. With the Indian Right to his right and the Chinese hovering in the background, he has little to fear on the international front. On home ground, he already has every level of government under his tight grip. He has reasons to smile. At least for now. A popular proverb in Nepali holds that given sufficient time, cinders too begin to glow. C.K. Lal is a journalist and political commentator from Nepal.