Inaugurating a defence manufacturing unit at Shirdi late last month, Union defence minister Rajnath Singh said that India would emerge as the world’s largest materiel exporter over the next 25–30 years, driven by rapidly expanding indigenous manufacturing capabilities and the growing role of the private sector in the country’s defence industrial base (DIB).Considering that India currently does not feature among the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) 25 largest arms-exporting nations, the minister’s prediction appeared remarkably ambitious. The last time India appeared in these rankings was four years ago, when it was placed 23rd alongside Czechia and Jordan, with each of the three countries accounting for a mere 0.2 per cent share of the global arms export market.Since then, the threshold for entering SIPRI’s list of the world’s 25 largest arms exporters has risen, with the bottom seven countries in the rankings – Denmark, Switzerland, Ukraine, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, and Iran – now accounting for around 0.3% of global exports each.The dominance of the US in the international arms marketMeanwhile, the international arms market remains highly concentrated, with the US expanding its dominance by increasing its share of exports from 37% in 2016-20 to 42% in 2021-25, largely at Russia’s expense. France, currently the world’s second-largest arms exporter, trails the US by a considerable margin with a market share of 9.8% , followed by Russia at 6.8%, Germany at 5.7% and China at 5.6%. Significantly, all these countries possess advanced military-industrial complexes that have evolved over many decades, in some cases since the Second World War.Even China, with its immense manufacturing capacity, technological advancement and geopolitical heft, has been unable to rise above fifth place among the world’s arms exporters. After rapidly expanding its share of international arms exports from 2% to around 5% in the 2000s, growth has since largely plateaued at 5.6% , according to SIPRI’s latest assessment.All this should have a sobering effect on India’s aspiration of becoming the world’s largest arms exporter within the next three decades. Theoretically, such an outcome is possible; in practice, it remains highly improbable. Raising India’s share from its current near-negligible level to above that of the US would necessitate an unprecedented expansion in indigenous design capability, manufacturing capacity, technological sophistication, product diversity and market access.While conceding that long-term trends in arms transfers are difficult to predict, SIPRI nevertheless expects the US to remain the world’s leading arms supplier beyond 2025. Major US arms orders and prospective sales include 936 combat aircraft, 254 attack helicopters, seven major warships, over 55 surface-to-air missile systems, 229 main battle tanks, over 1400 armoured vehicles and some 800 artillery systems. India will ultimately have to compete against this scale, range and depth of production but with its current, highly limited, export basket that remains more than just a formidable challenge.In 2021 the then junior defence minister Ajay Bhatt had informed parliament that India’s defence exports included weapon simulators, tear-gas launchers, torpedo-loading mechanisms, alarm monitoring and control systems, night-vision devices, lightweight torpedoes, fire-control systems, armoured protection vehicles, weapon-locating radars, high frequency radios and coastal radar systems. He had also noted that a substantial proportion of these exports consisted of parts and components rather than complete weapon systems.Surely, much has changed over the past five years. Yet, in a November 2025 press release, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that while the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) remained “on the path to operational maturity and export discussions”, the principal military kit being exported to more than 80 countries included bulletproof jackets, patrol boats, helicopters, radars and lightweight torpedoes. Most of these are either relatively low-value products or exported in volumes, unlikely to propel India into the ranks of the world’s leading arms exporters, as Singh claimed.The notable exception is the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. Developed jointly by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Russia’s state-owned missile manufacturer NPO Mashinostroyeniya (NPOM), the weapon has emerged as one of the few Indian defence products to generate sustained overseas interest.In 2022, India signed a $375 million contract to supply three BrahMos coastal defence missile batteries to the Philippines, marking the country’s first major export of a frontline missile system. More recently, defence secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh indicated at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last month that India was also on track to export the BrahMos to Vietnam.Yet, despite this success, the missile’s continued dependence on Russian-origin technology like components of its ramjet engine, specialised steel and seekers, amid other components, inevitably limit its appeal in a market increasingly shaped by geopolitical considerations and sanctions-related risks like the ones Moscow currently faces over its war in Ukraine.More broadly, many military platforms manufactured in India continue to rely, to varying degrees, on foreign suppliers for critical components, subsystems and, in some cases, raw materials. Beyond BrahMos, this applies to indigenously developed systems such as the Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) and its derivatives, including the ALH Mk-IV Rudra and the Prachand Light Combat Helicopter, Tejas LCA and the K-9 ‘Vajra’ 155mm/55mm-calibre self-propelled howitzer, whose turret, gun system and overall design are derived from South Korea’s K9 Thunder artillery platform. For prospective buyers, such dependence raises concerns over the reliability of supply chains that remain susceptible to sanctions, export controls and geopolitical disruptions beyond India’s control.Export prospects are also shaped by perceptions of reliability. Ecuador terminated its contract for seven Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)-designed and built Dhruv ALHs in 2015 after four of these aircraft crashed. A decade later, Dhruv suffered another reputational setback after India’s entire military fleet of around 330 ALHs was temporarily grounded following a Coast Guard crash in Gujarat. Although HAL maintained that subsequent technical issues did not indicate a systemic flaw, such incidents inevitably affect international confidence in Indian-designed military platforms.Most leading arms exporters – perhaps with the exception of the US – also depend on one or more major customers. According to SIPRI, India, Egypt and Greece, for instance, accounted for 45% of French arms exports in 2021-25, with India alone accounting for 24%. Similarly, India, China and Belarus absorbed 74% of Russia’s exports, while 61% of Chinese arms exports went to Pakistan alone. India, too, is likely to require one or more anchor customers, or perhaps a large regional market such as Africa, if it is to emerge as a serious exporter of defence equipment.Ambitious declarations and sporadic initiatives, rather than a realistic assessmentPresently, Ukraine is the world’s largest arms importer, followed by India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Kuwait, Australia, Egypt, Italy, Japan and Poland, among many others. However, making meaningful inroads into these countries will be difficult for India, not least because the US remains the principal supplier to 21 of the world’s 40 largest arms-importing countries. Competing against such entrenched commercial, political and military relationships will require far more than incremental growth in exports and variety of materiel on offer.India has not matched these inherent challenges with a coherent or well-defined policy response. Its defence export strategy continues to rely mostly on bombast, ambitious declarations and sporadic initiatives, rather than a realistic assessment of its domestic industrial capabilities, limitations and opportunities in an intensely competitive global arms bazaar.The world’s leading arms exporters dominate the sale of fighters, helicopters, warships, air-defence systems, armoured vehicles and artillery. India, by contrast, features nowhere on this metric and badly needs to identify a narrower set of military products in which it can genuinely establish an irresistible competitive advantage in not only price and quality but also in after-sales support.In March 2026, India’s Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence advised MoD to facilitate ease of doing business, expand exports and encourage greater investment in research, development and innovation. Yet such exhortations offered little by way of a coherent export strategy. Equally unhelpful is the Defence Production and Export Promotion Policy (DPEPP), which remains a draft document nearly six years after being circulated for comments. Aspirational targets, however ambitious, are no substitute for a credible roadmap.India’s defence exports are growing – having more than trebled from Rs 12,815 crore in 2020-21 to Rs 38,424 crore in 2025-26- but growth and global dominance are not the same thing. Becoming the world’s largest arms exporter will require far more than ambitious targets and optimistic projections.It will require products that buyers want, supply chains they trust and a strategy that matches aspiration with execution.Amit Cowshish is a former financial advisor (acquisitions), Ministry of Defence.