New Delhi: A comprehensive analysis by Switzerland’s Centre for Military History and Perspective Studies has revealed stark contrasts in the May 2025 India-Pakistan air confrontation, concluding that while Pakistan secured a decisive tactical victory on the opening night, India subsequently achieved clear air superiority.The report details how Pakistani forces shot down multiple Indian fighter aircraft during the early hours of May 7, 2025, including at least one French-made Rafale fighter – a loss that resonated globally given the aircraft’s prestige. The Pakistan Air Force claimed destruction of six Indian aircraft that night, including three Rafales, one Su-30MKI, one MiG-29UPG, and a large drone, with five victories attributed to fighter aircraft and one to surface-to-air missiles.According to the CPHM analysis, Pakistani success stemmed from several tactical advantages. The PAF deployed sophisticated cooperative engagement tactics using its Link-17 datalink system, allowing JF-17 and J-10C fighters to fire Chinese-made PL-15 long-range missiles while keeping their own radars silent. Targeting data transmitted from an Erieye early warning aircraft orbiting safely to the rear enabled missiles to receive mid-course updates before activating their terminal guidance radars – giving Indian pilots only seconds to react.The report reveals that Indians were caught off-guard by Pakistan’s willingness to fire at the IAF aircraft operating deep inside Indian airspace. Intelligence assessments had underestimated the PL-15’s capabilities, believing Pakistan possessed an export variant of the Chinese missile, limited to 150 kilometres rather than the 200-kilometre range actually achieved. Indian pilots flying Rafales and other aircraft were also hampered by intensive Pakistani electronic jamming.Visual evidence confirmed the loss of at least one Rafale (serial number BS001), one Mirage 2000, and either a MiG-29UPG or Su-30MKI. Discovery of intact BrahMos missiles on the ground indicated at least one IAF pilot was forced to jettison weapons to execute evasive manoeuvres – achieving what military analysts call a “mission kill” even without aircraft destruction.Pakistan’s tactical victory, however, proved short-lived. The Swiss report concludes that the Indian Air Force’s systematic campaign over the following 88 hours fundamentally reversed the operational situation, establishing “clear air superiority over a significant portion of Pakistan’s airspace.”Between May 7-9, India launched targeted strikes using Israeli Harop and Harpy loitering munitions against Pakistani border surveillance radars and long-range surface-to-air missile batteries. The campaign, deliberately low-profile compared to Pakistan’s public messaging, neutralised at least two early-warning radars at Chunian and Pasrur and struck multiple air defence sites. More critically, Pakistani drone and missile attacks between May 7-10 failed to penetrate India’s layered air defence system. Pakistan’s inability to suppress Indian air defences became catastrophic when India launched two strike waves on May 10. Between 2 AM and 5 AM on May 10, Su-30MKIs, Jaguars and Rafales fired BrahMos, SCALP-EG and Rampage missiles from deep within Indian airspace against seven sites up to 200 kilometres inside Pakistan, including five airbases. A second wave at 10 AM targeted manned aircraft infrastructure. Sargodha Air Base, home to multiple combat squadrons, was rendered inoperative by runway-destroying missile strikes. The Swiss report notes that while both sides made claims difficult to verify independently, sufficient evidence indicates that India had achieved air superiority by May 10.“On the strategic plane, Operation Sindoor has led to conventional military clashes of considerable magnitude between two de facto nuclear-weapon states with differing doctrines regarding the use of nuclear weapons, which made the situation very tricky to handle, with a high risk of escalation and potentially catastrophic consequences,” the report warns.