New Delhi: Union home minister Amit Shah’s speech in response to the debate over the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation (Amendment) Bill, 2023 and The Jammu & Kashmir Reservation (Amendment) Bill, 2023 became an opportunity for him to showcase the Union government’s so-called achievements in the union territory, especially after its decision to read down Article 370 in 2019. Not only did he claim that the incidents of terrorism have drastically reduced and laid down elaborate statistics to indicate all-round socio-economic development in the union territory, he also used the Lok Sabha platform to attack India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, who he believes was responsible for losing control over what is now known as Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.He said that the Bharatiya Janata Party government under the leadership of Narendra Modi has been undoing multiple historical wrongs or blunders that were committed during various Congress regimes, beginning from Nehru’s era.The crux of his speech centred around a single point – that Kashmir is on its way to a complete transformation after the dilution of Article 370 as the move allowed the Union government to initiate a series of development projects, from hydropower and irrigation projects to even multiplexes in cities, as the Centre has moved to implement a “Zero Terror Plan” and “Complete Domination Plan” over the last three years.Shah was, however, careful in his words, claiming that he had never said that the removal of Article 370 will end terrorism. He said that “the root of terrorism is the feeling of separatism which has arisen due to Article 370 and with the removal of Article 370, there will be a huge reduction in separatism and due to this terrorism will also reduce.”He then went on to cite figures that curiously compared incidents of terrorism between 1994 and 2004 with those in the last nine years – the Modi years – to show a “70% reduction”. Any subject expert will tell you that the comparison may be misplaced, as terrorism was at its peak in the 1990s, following which such incidents have been largely on the decline because of state interventions. There may or may not be any direct correlation between Article 370 and the overall decline in incidents of terror.The big question is whether there has been any substantial fall in terrorism since 2018. Both official and non-official data show that incidents of terrorism are far from over, even as year-wise break-ups indicate a zig-zag graph.Official data shows that the Jammu region recorded an uptick in terror activities, including in recruitment of terrorists. 231 terrorists and their overground workers (OGWs) were arrested between August 5, 2019 and June 16, 2023 in the Jammu division – a 71% increase in such arrests if compared to the period between October 27, 2015 and August 4, 2019. Similarly, the number of casualties owing to IED blasts increased from three in 2015-19 to 11 in 2019-2023 – again almost a 73% jump.Deccan Herald reported that the terrorist-initiated stand-off fire and hit and run cases in the last four years also saw a 43% increase – from four before 2019 to seven in 2023 – even as terror recruitment has increased almost 39%. The figures indicate a considerable resentment on the ground following the dilution of Article 370 that may explode in the future.The only silver lining in the official statistics on the Jammu division was that the casualties among the police and security forces showed a 13% decline after Article 370 ceased to be in place. “While 29 personnel lost their lives and 32 others were injured in various attacks post the abrogation of Article 370, the figures stood at 33 deaths and 42 injuries from October 27, 2015 to August 4, 2019, stated the data,” read the report.Similarly, in his response to the Rajya Sabha, Union minister of state for home affairs Nityanand Rai gave out figures that indicate that barring 2023, the last few years have seen a substantial number of terror-related incidents, which are not very different from the period before Article 370 was revoked.Rai said that the reported “terror-initiated” incidents dropped to 41 until November 15, 2023 in Jammu and Kashmir, compared to 125 in 2022, 129 in 2021, 126 in 2020, 153 in 2019, and 228 in 2018. The number of encounters, he said, showed a similar dip with 44 reported incidents of encounters in 2023 compared to 117 in 2022, 100 in 2021, 118 in 2020, 102 in 2019, and 189 in 2018. Rai indicated that the Centre’s zero-tolerance policy towards terrorism was responsible for the decline, but the incidents shows that terror-related activities are far from over, and the picture is not as rosy as the Shah painted it out to be in the Lok Sabha.Shah also claimed that there was not even a single stone pelting incident in Jammu and Kashmir in 2023, and compared it to the 2,654 such incidents in 2010. However, other official sources said that at least three stone-pelting incidents were reported in 2023. There is undoubtedly a massive dip in stone-pelting incidents in 2023, but that does not take away from the fact that 2023 could very well be an exception and an outcome of lack of reported incidents. “According to the data, a total of 324 incidents of stone pelting were registered by local authorities in the first six months of 2020. Next year, such incidents saw a dip and fell to 179. Similarly, in 2022 and 2023, for the same period, the total number of incidents reported were 50 and 3,” a news report based on government data said. Some reports have also recorded incidents of stone pelting in 2023, quite contrary to Shah’s claim.The South Asia Terrorism Portal, a credible data aggregator, showed that from 2014 to 2018, the Jammu and Kashmir region registered a massive uptick in terror-related incidents – a critical reflection on the performance of the Modi government. Although the numbers fell after 2018, it is still unclear why it should only be credited to the abrogation of Article 370 and not other factors like COVID-19-induced lockdown and absence of registered cases. A fact-sheet by SATP shows that the number of casualties, which include civilians, security forces, and alleged terrorists, had increased drastically between 2014 and 2018 – a much higher number of the same between 2011 and 2014. The only appreciable trend is that the number of civilian casualties has come down substantially in the post-2018 period.Source: South Asia Terrorism PortalContrary to the data shared by the Union government, the security establishment in Kashmir has been on an alert in 2023. Several incidents have made them sit up for a possible explosion in the near future. An Indian Express report in September 2023 pointed out that five terror-related incidents in 10 days in the Pir-Panjal and Rajouri regions showed a spike in cross-border infiltration of terrorists – and a definite spurt by Pakistani attempts to fuel terrorism in these winters when Kashmir will be enveloped by snow.In November, 2022, Lieutenant-General Upendera Dwivedi, the General Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Northern Command, had said, “Figures available suggest that of the 300 militants active in J&K, including in the Rajouri-Poonch belt, there are 82 foreign militants and 53 local militants.” Although he said that “peace and development” had gained speed in the last few years, he expressed his worry about the remaining 170 unidentified militants in Kashmir.As recently as September 2023, The Week reported that there were still 81 active terrorists in Kashmir, according to army officials, out of which 48 belonged to the LeT, while the rest belonged to terror outfits Jaish e Mohammed, Hizbul Mujahideen and Al Badr. The officials also said that the LeT has been attempting to recruit locals and sending its foot soldiers to various launch pads in PoK. The report also said that the largest number of active terrorists were in South Kashmir – 56, which include 28 foreign terrorists.Contrary to what Shah would like to believe, terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir is far from over. As security officers indicate, it may well become a greater problem in the days to come, given the high level of alleged repression in the valley in the post-2018 period. The resentment among civilians continues to brew and the extremist groups are waiting to encash this to recruit more of their foot soldiers, as most reports indicate. The situation appears to be more grave than what selective statistics portray.