Srinagar: Seven years after the Union government revoked Article 370 and reorganised Jammu and Kashmir into a Union territory, the security situation in the region presents a mixed picture. While official data points to a substantial decline in terror-related fatalities and street violence in Kashmir compared to the years preceding August 2019, militant attacks continue.A.S. Dulat, a former spymaster and former special director of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), told The Wire that the situation is fine at times, and not so good at others, adding that security in Jammu and Kashmir depends on ‘which way Kashmiris lean’, and ‘what Pakistan is up to’. In recent years, the valley has witnessed terror attacks, although the number is comparatively low, with violence increasingly shifting from the Kashmir valley to the Jammu region. Just a few days ago, an attack on non-local labourers challenged peace claims made by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party government in New Delhi. “The two militant attacks in the past 10 days, together with the disproportionate response by the security forces, which detained 2,500 people for questioning, show that the situation remains as precarious as ever and the conflict as unresolved as ever,” said Praveen Donthi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, speaking to The Wire.Dulat, on the other hand, said, “When Delhi says that it’s normal, it’s not normal. Everybody knows it. The number of security forces deployed itself is an indication that it is not normal. But you can say it’s not out of control.”The Union government has consistently argued that the constitutional changes of August 5, 2019, have weakened separatism, improved security and brought greater stability to the region. Opposition parties and independent security experts, however, caution against attributing every improvement solely to the abrogation of Article 370. They credit multiple factors, including enhanced counter-insurgency operations, the 2021 India-Pakistan ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC), advanced surveillance technology used by the forces and changing militant strategies.Terror-related fatalities declineSecurity experts say one of the clearest indicators of the changing security landscape is the decline in overall terror-related fatalities.“Since 2019, militancy has evolved strategically, first going underground and then shifting the theatre of militancy to the Jammu region. Although security indicators show an improvement in the situation, it’s a superficial calm, and the region is a tinderbox of anger and alienation. The Pahalgam attack in April and the Delhi blast in November underscore this fact,” Donthi said. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Jammu and Kashmir recorded 452 terror-related deaths in 2018, the year before the constitutional changes. The number declined to 283 in 2019, rose to 321 in 2020, and again fell to 274 in 2021, 253 in 2022, 134 in 2023 and 127 in 2024.The year 2025 ended as the least violent year in Jammu and Kashmir in more than two decades, with 92 people killed in terror-related violence – 28 civilians, 17 security personnel and 46 militants – according to the SATP data compiled from official and independent trackers.A large share of the civilian deaths came in a single attack. On April 22, terrorists targeted tourists in the Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam, killing 26 people. The attack remains the deadliest civilian attack in the region in recent years.Even with the Pahalgam attack, the overall toll in 2025 was sharply lower than in previous years.The decline has been visible across all categories – civilians, security personnel and militants killed. “The important point here is that Kashmir wants peace, we want out. All we want is dignity, to live in peace and do business,” Dulat said.“There are ups and downs. Sometimes it looks better, sometimes it looks worse. But militancy is not over, let me put it very straight,” he added.Donthi claimed that political dissatisfaction fuels “anger and alienation and adversely affects the security situation in a conflict-ridden society like Jammu and Kashmir”. “The state has not only been downgraded, but the elected chief minister also has no real powers, leading to disillusionment among those who participated in elections. The central government is not restoring statehood because it is not yet confident about the security situation,” he said. The SATP data shows that overall terror-related fatalities in Jammu and Kashmir have declined significantly since 2018, although the pattern has fluctuated over the years. In 2018, 38 civilians, 91 security personnel and 323 militants were killed. The following year, the figures stood at 40 civilians, 78 security personnel and 165 militants.The Union territory remained without an elected government for nearly six years, which analysts believe has further alienated the people.“The chief minister has no powers over security and the maintenance of law and order, which rest with the Lieutenant Governor. The elected government and its party structure have organic links with the grassroots and are better equipped to address security challenges. Yet the central government shows no confidence in it, leading to security failures such as the Pahalgam attack,” Donthi said. In 2020, 37 civilians, 56 security personnel and 228 militants were killed, while 2021 recorded 41 civilian deaths, 42 security personnel fatalities and 191 militant killings. The numbers continued to decline thereafter, with 30 civilians, 31 security personnel and 192 militants killed in 2022; 12 civilians, 33 security personnel and 89 militants in 2023; and 31 civilians, 26 security personnel and 70 militants in 2024. The total number of conflict-related fatalities in 2024 was down to 127 – lowest annual figure since 2012. Despite the overall decline, the former R&AW chief cautioned against assuming that the militant threat has disappeared. “These boys who come from across are still there. Whenever they want to, they do something. Pakistan has the capability, and they have the players on the ground,” Dulat said.Terror incidents remain, but geography has changedAlthough fatalities have reduced, militancy in Jammu and Kashmir has not disappeared.Pointing to the targeted killings that occurred after the 2019 decision in Srinagar, Dulat said what surprised him most was when terror came to Srinagar, something that had never happened even during the worst days of militancy in the region. Srinagar was always normal, he said, even at the peak of militancy in Kashmir.“When killings started, including targeted killings of Kashmiri Pandits, how could you say it’s normal then? I’m quite sure that they have sleeper cells even in the city,” he said.Data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) shows that while the overall number of terrorism-related incidents declined after 2018, the trend remained uneven before falling sharply in the last two years. Jammu and Kashmir recorded 597 terror-related incidents in 2018, which dropped to 369 in 2019. However, incidents rose again to 415 in 2020, 460 in 2021 and 457 in 2022. The numbers then declined substantially, with 267 incidents reported in 2023 and 210 in 2024, indicating a significant reduction in militant activity compared with the years immediately preceding the abrogation of Article 370.Security analysts say the nature of militancy has also changed.Whereas earlier militant activity was concentrated largely in south and central Kashmir, recent years have witnessed increasing attacks in Jammu’s Rajouri, Poonch, Kathua, Doda, Reasi and Udhampur districts. The attacks on pilgrims in Reasi in June 2024 and tourists in Pahalgam in April 2025 underscored that militant groups continue to retain operational capability despite the broader decline in violence.“There’s nobody bigger or better informed than Dr Farooq, and he has said it many times: unless we engage with Pakistan, this will not end,” Dulat told The Wire.Civilian deaths fall overallCivilian casualties remain one of the most closely watched indicators of the conflict.After recording 38 civilian deaths in 2018 and 40 in 2019, fatalities fluctuated before falling sharply to 12 in 2023. The number increased to 31 in 2024 following several targeted attacks, particularly in the Jammu region.Security experts note that militants have increasingly targeted civilians, including migrant workers, minorities, village defence guards and tourists, rather than relying solely on attacks against security installations.Security force casualties declineSecurity force fatalities have also declined substantially compared with the years preceding the abrogation of Article 370. According to data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 91 security personnel were killed in 2018. The number fell to 78 in 2019, 56 in 2020 and 42 in 2021. It declined further to 31 in 2022, saw a marginal increase to 33 in 2023, and dropped to 26 in 2024, reflecting an overall downward trend in security force casualties over the past seven years.The decline is attributed to improved intelligence gathering, enhanced surveillance technologies, better coordination among security agencies and sustained counter-insurgency operations.Infiltration across the LoCCross-border infiltration along the Line of Control (LoC) has also declined compared with previous decades.According to Union home ministry data compiled by SATP, infiltration attempts exceeded 400 annually during several years in the late 2000s and again in 2016-18. The number recorded before August 2019 had already fallen substantially, and security agencies have since credited improved fencing, electronic surveillance and the February 2021 India-Pakistan ceasefire understanding for reducing infiltration attempts further. What the government has saidThe BJP maintains that the August 5, 2019, decision fundamentally altered Jammu and Kashmir’s security environment.The party argues that separatist mobilisation has weakened, stone-pelting incidents have reduced dramatically, elections have been conducted peacefully, tourism has reached record levels and local recruitment into militant organisations has declined. For the Union government, these developments collectively demonstrate that the abrogation of Article 370 has strengthened both security and democratic participation.Ceasefire ‘the only positive’, says oppositionOpposition parties and several independent observers dispute a direct causal link between the constitutional changes and the security improvement.They argue that multiple developments, including the 2021 ceasefire between India and Pakistan, sustained military operations, improved border management and changing militant tactics – have all contributed to the reduction in violence.“That is the only positive – that the ceasefire still holds,” Dulat said.“If you go back to 2021, that was a good period to engage with Pakistan. Imran was willing to compromise on a lot of things. You had General Bajwa, who people said was a good man, who could do business with him,” he added.They also point out that high-profile attacks in Reasi in 2024 and Pahalgam in 2025 illustrate that militant networks remain capable of carrying out deadly strikes despite the overall decline in violence.When asked whether improved security can be sustained without expanding political participation and public confidence, Donthi said that the “Kashmir conflict” needs to be addressed as a complex political issue with a security dimension, not merely as a national security challenge.“Building stability on a foundation of fear and counterinsurgency alone is unlikely to work. The government has to adopt a moderate and balanced approach to dealing with militancy. It shouldn’t criminalise youth and the general public by using anti-terror laws too liberally. It should refrain from making Kashmir an electoral issue,” he said.Conflict finds a new addressSeven years after Article 370 was revoked, Jammu and Kashmir is unquestionably less violent than it was during many earlier phases of the insurgency. Terror-related fatalities have declined, infiltration has reduced, and security force losses have fallen.“The high voter turnout in elections to keep the BJP out has shown that the post-2019 changes are deeply unpopular. It’s a deceptive calm, as alienation on the ground is widespread. The Pahalgam attack and the Delhi blast are symptoms of anger and insecurity caused by policies implemented since 2019. Militancy seems to have shifted from the Valley to the Jammu region, with a spike in attacks. The India-Pakistan conflict, which ended in a stalemate, has also altered the dynamics, with Pakistan’s profile and confidence rising. All this points to an uncertain immediate future,” Donthi said.Yet, the conflict has evolved rather than disappeared. Militancy has shifted geographically towards Jammu, civilian targets continue to be vulnerable and isolated but high-impact attacks remain capable of reshaping the security narrative. Whether the current trends represent a durable peace or merely a changing phase of the conflict remains one of the central questions facing Jammu and Kashmir’s security landscape.Despite repeated calls and messages to IGP Nalin Prabhat for his comment, the officer was unavailable. The story will be updated if he responds.