In a rare admission of guilt, the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance government conceded during an all-party meeting that there had been a “lapse” that led to the Pahalgam attack in Jammu and Kashmir. Perhaps the security establishment was so shaken by the unexpected killing of 26 civilians – all except one of whom were tourists – that it was left with no other option but to acknowledge the failure.Massacres by Pakistan-based terror groups targeting Amarnath pilgrims, minority communities, and tourists—after ascertaining their religious identities—are not new to Jammu and Kashmir. However, this is the largest attack on tourists since the eruption of militancy in 1990.The biggest embarrassment for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the failure of its narrative that terrorism in J&K had been decimated following the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A of the constitution in August 2019. Similar claims were made at the time of demonetisation, though these have conveniently been forgotten. Among its political miscalculations, the BJPalso likely underestimated the mischief potential of Pakistan and over-relied on continued US support to tame its hostile neighbour.Kashmir watchers have long known that while Pakistan might take time to turn on the tap of infiltration, it retains the capability to reactivate its terror infrastructure. Terror groups also have a limitless supply of cannon fodder that can be deployed as and when required. That is why infiltration from Pakistan continued in trickles, both in the Valley and Jammu region, even when an impression of peace prevailed.Union minister Kiren Rijiju did not elaborate on what he meant by the “lapse,” but the statement raises several questions. Was there no actionable intelligence available about the movement of terrorists in the area? Was there a poor understanding of the ground situation and the intentions of India’s hostile neighbour, Pakistan? Or worse, was there a failure to realise that the relative peace being celebrated in Delhi was tenuous and deceptive, given that infiltration continued, albeit in small numbers?Perhaps the answer to all these questions is yes. Otherwise, why was Delhi not alerted when, on March 14, Pakistan Army spokesman Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif threatened not only Baloch separatists for the Jaffar Express hijacking in Balochistan but also their “backers” (the interim Taliban government in Afghanistan) and “facilitators” (India)? India called the Pakistani allegation “baseless” and left it at that.Even if there was no specific intelligence about a planned retaliation, a general alert and necessary deployment of troops could have deterred the movement of terror groups in areas frequented by tourists.What makes the Pahalgam attack particularly unique—and possibly linked to violence by Baloch separatists in Pakistan—is the fact that, unlike in past incidents, the terrorists spared women and children. This raises the suspicion that the attack may have been retaliation for the hijacking of the Jaffar Express, in which Baloch separatists also released women and children.Pakistan’s only way to retaliate was through its proxy terror groups in Jammu and Kashmir. Hence the deployment of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba terrorists, who may have infiltrated sometime earlier and were easily mobilised for the attack. In fact, targeted violence against security forces by terror groups has continued in the Jammu region since 2023.The threat from the Pakistan Army spokesman was soon followed by the rants of Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir, who assured his countrymen that the army had not abandoned its support for the people of Jammu and Kashmir and reiterated that it remains Pakistan’s “jugular vein.”Nothing new or unexpected. The problem with India’s security establishment is its failure to recognise that Pakistan never accepted the changes India made in Jammu and Kashmir on August 5, 2019. Pakistan still considers itself a party to the Kashmir issue and is eager for dialogue.Pakistan’s anger, however, is not limited to those changes. As violence by Baloch separatists and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) escalates internally, Islamabad blames India and the interim Afghan government for backing these groups. It also accuses India of launching a campaign of “extrajudicial and extraterritorial” assassinations of Pakistani nationals—an allegation India denies.Nevertheless, a report in The Guardian on April 4, 2024, substantiated some of Pakistan’s claims, noting that about 20 individuals—known terrorists wanted by India—were killed by unknown gunmen in Pakistan since 2020.For Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir, escalating tensions with India may have been the only option left to stem the rising tide of domestic anger against him and the army, which faces criticism for propping up an illegitimate regime and imprisoning the country’s most popular leader, Imran Khan.Pakistani army personnel are under increasing threat in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where even travelling in civilian clothes is no longer safe, as evidenced by targeted killings aboard the Jaffar Express.It has become an uphill battle for Pakistani security forces to counter the Baloch separatists and TTP terrorists, who are now armed with deadlier weapons such as American-made M4 assault rifles equipped with thermal imaging sights for night operations. These weapons, which use armour-piercing bullets ideal for ambushes, were left behind after the U.S. military’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.According to The Washington Post (April 14, 2024), billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. military equipment was abandoned, much of which has ended up with insurgents in Pakistan. A similar report by the BBC (April 18) confirmed that “half a million” American weapons have been lost, sold, or smuggled to militant groups.M4 assault rifles have been recovered from terrorists killed in Jammu and Kashmir as well. Over the last two years, some of the deadliest attacks on security forces in Jammu have been carried out using these weapons. Just a month ago, five recently infiltrated Pakistani terrorists killed four J&K policemen in Hiranagar, Kathua district, with similar American-made rifles. It is highly likely that the Pakistan Army stockpiled these weapons to arm terror groups targeting India.The relative peace along the International Border and Line of Control since February 2021 could have been an opportunity for Delhi to build bridges with the people of J&K and consolidate the constituency for peace. Instead, Delhi squandered this chance, focusing instead on tightening its hold over the Union Territory—first by delaying elections, and now by disempowering the chief minister’s office and making it subordinate to the Lieutenant Governor.When the BJP’s dream of installing its own chief minister in J&K failed, it backtracked on its promise of restoring statehood. Moves like disempowering chief minister Omar Abdullah send the message that the Centre has little respect for the people’s mandate. Unless this situation is altered, it will only fuel greater alienation and anger in the Valley, with serious consequences.Turning popular goodwill into resentmentMoreover, Delhi has a knack for turning Kashmiri goodwill into resentment. After the Pahalgam attack, locals helped transport victims, opened their homes to tourists, held peace marches across the Valley—including in Sopore, once the nerve centre of separatism—and called a strike the next day. These spontaneous gestures reflected a popular desire for peace and rejection of terrorism.Yet the government responded by demolishing the homes of suspects, rendering families homeless, and arresting around 2,000 Kashmiris merely on suspicion. It has also, once again, led to attacks on Kashmiri students elsewhere in India without provocation. Such actions will only be counterproductive, undermining the very community cooperation necessary for gathering intelligence.If Delhi acknowledges there were lapses, how can its security forces and intelligence agencies hope to gather actionable information when their actions deepen alienation?The Pahalgam incident has cast a dark shadow on peace and stability in the region, raising the spectre of conflict between two nuclear-armed nations. International pressure on Pakistan has diminished since its removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in October 2022, enabling renewed access to IMF funding.Pakistan is also leveraging its mineral wealth to curry favour with the US. On April 4, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed potential collaboration on critical minerals with Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, signalling expanded commercial opportunities for US companies. This new opening may have emboldened Pakistan to escalate tensions with India.Any knee-jerk retaliation at this stage could plunge the region into turmoil. Instead, India must build an international consensus against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, leveraging institutions like the FATF and the IMF. Pakistan’s economy remains heavily dependent on the goodwill of the US and European countries for export markets. This leverage must be used.It is time for diplomacy—not rash military responses—to lead, ensuring that India’s concerns are firmly and effectively addressed.Avinash Mohananey served for many years with the Intelligence Bureau and specialised in Jammu and Kashmir.