As July 8, the date for the rural Bengal panchayat polls, draws closer, the state’s political landscape is undergoing notable transformations. The massive exercise will involve a substantial electorate of around 5.67 crores who will elect representatives for nearly 74,000 seats across Zilla Parishads, Panchayat Samitis, and Gram Panchayats.While corruption allegations pose a litmus test for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), opposition parties view this as their final opportunity before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to consolidate support and challenge the TMC’s long-standing dominance in West Bengal since 2011.However, early indications from the nomination filing process and insights gleaned from discussions with political analysts and locals reveal a shifting mood in rural Bengal.For old timers like Mohen Chakraborty, a resident of Balurghat in Dakshin Dinajpur district, who had witnessed the inaugural panchayat election in the state back in 1978, this time has seen a resurgence of familiar issues. Rural Bengal grapples with severe unemployment. “The only difference from that time is in the number of educated unemployed people,” he says.As the political parties finalise candidate lists and file nominations, there are also concerns over rural development and depleting agricultural support, along with livelihood opportunities. This time, all these issues have remained at the forefront of public discourse.Historically, the panchayat polls in the state have been marked by significant political violence and intimidation.In the last election held in 2018, Trinamool Congress won 34% of the seats uncontested and swept 94.84% of 19 Zilla Parishad seats, 80% of Panchayat Samiti seats and 66% of Gram Panchayat seats. Many believe that the Left and Congress were reduced to a point where they had to give up any prospect of meaningfully contesting the polls thanks to the violence.This, it is also believed, aided the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state. BJP came a distant second with 3.54% of 622 Zilla Parishad seats, 12.34% of Panchayat Samiti seats and 18.06% of Gram Panchayat seats. The Left, which used to dominate the Panchayat Polls till 2008, were decimated and scored even lower than the independent candidates.A lot has changed since then. The upcoming elections are being held at a time when a number of senior leaders from the Trinamool Congress are currently in custody or facing investigations related to corruption cases conducted by central agencies like the CBI and ED.Anubrata Mandal, the party’s strong man in Birbhum and adjacent districts, who is believed to have been a key presence when it came to stopping opposition parties from filing nominations is currently lodged in Tihar jail and thus unable to provide support for his party. While his close friend Chandranath Sinha, the state’s Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises and Textiles minister, expresses confidence in the party’s performance, conversations with locals in the district indicate that the upcoming elections may not be as straightforward as Sinha thinks.Also read: Political Equations May Change But Violent Power Play Continues to Plague Bengal’s BirbhumThe Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme which promises 100 days’ of work is stalled in the state due to fund freeze by the Union government over irregularities and corruption charges. West Bengal has approximately 1.4 crore cardholders at present under the scheme, of whom around 15 lakh, or around 10%, were found to be fake.Swapan Dule, a resident of Goghat in Hooghly district recounts his struggles with receiving payment and the role played by political loyalty.“We have been facing difficulties in securing 100 days of work for many years now. Political loyalty plays a role in getting the job. I know many whose job cards have been captured by political workers. Once, I received more than what I was owed in my account. The local panchayat boss said it was mistake and took the extra while giving me Rs 100 as bonus. I realised that they’re over-billing,” Dule said.In the South 24 Parganas, the Gram Panchayat head of the Bhanger Lagoya Bhogali village is a Trinamool leader Modassar Hossain. He says, “We don’t have any money in our hands. The plight of the poor is distressing. Once the election gets over, we will all go to Delhi. They owe us a lot of money!”Minister and Anubrata’s aide, Chandranath, who is mentioned earlier in the piece said that rural voters know that the “it is the BJP government at the Union which has stopped funding the NREGS.” This, he feels, will inspire them to give a “befitting reply to BJP” in the panchayat polls.Political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty feels that Bengal’s poverty cannot be pegged to the pause in one scheme alone. “The stalling of the 100-day job guarantee scheme, which in any case has been a source of corruption, cannot be the sole reason for rural distress. Even when West Bengal was a top performer in MGNREGS, our studies indicated acute poverty in rural Bengal,” he says.This over dependence on MGNREGS leads to the question of rural sustainability in the state. Multiple studies in recent times have pointed out the growing trend of rural out male migration from West Bengal due to high population density, low wages and landlessness, along with dependence on agriculture and lack of employment. In Bankura district, the closure of the stone industry has led to a dearth of employment opportunities, leaving many impoverished individuals from nearby areas to accept lower wages.Shyamal Bauri, a resident of Shaltora village, used to work in a crusher, earning an average daily income of Rs 400 to 500. However, after the industry shut down in its entirety, he began work for a contractor in Durgapur. “I now earn Rs 250 per day, half of what I was getting earlier. Add this to daily commuting expenses, you will understand my situation.”Champa Mandal, a fish vendor in the storm-affected Jharkhali village of South 24 Parganas, shares the struggles she faces. Her husband, a fisherman, would spend nights in the river catching fish and crabs before returning home. Earlier, they used to sell the catch to self-help groups at a fair price.“The self-help groups have vanished. We now to sell fish at prices significantly lower than the market rates as the wholesalers have more control.”Photo: Joydeep SarkarHow rural Bengal faresA 2022 report titled ‘Farmers’ Welfare: An Analysis Across States of India’ by the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) shows that the average monthly income of a farming family in West Bengal is Rs 7,573.This places West Bengal among the states with relatively lower average income from farming. Only six other states, namely Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Tripura, and Uttar Pradesh, have a lower average income in this category, reflecting the depth of the economic challenges faced by farming households the state.In terms of agricultural loans per hectare of land, West Bengal ranks 15th among all the states. The average agricultural loan per hectare in the state is Rs 55,000, which corresponds to Rs 22,000 per acre. In comparison, Kerala tops the list with an agricultural loan per hectare of Rs 3,68,000, equivalent to Rs 1,47,200 per acre.Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader and former minister Sushant Ghosh attributes rural distress to the state government’s failure to support farmers. “The brokers are buying crops at nominal prices and selling them to the government at profitable prices, leaving the poor villagers to suffer. The small farmers are in acute distress and are forced to go to private money lenders. Many are falling into a debt trap, leading to an alarming rise in deaths by suicide among farmers,” Ghosh said.In Ziralpur village of Sitai area in the northern district of Cooch Behar, financial distress has led to people resorting to eating wild vegetables and tubers. Many migrant workers who returned during the first lockdown and wanted to stay back are now moving to other states due to a lack of availability of jobs in government projects.Meanwhile, women workers from tea plantations are opting to migrate to other states such as Nagpur, Rajasthan, and Surat in search of contractual family work. Some have reported earning an average monthly salary of Rs 40,000 to 50,000 as domestic helps, a significantly higher than what they would earn in the tea gardens.Photo: Joydeep SarkarIdentity politicsHowever, in north Bengal, which has emerged a BJP strong hold, religion and caste politics including the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC) still remain a key factor. Religious processions are drawing larger crowds compared to rallies demanding payment for MGNREGS work. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has been quite active and BJP leaders in North Bengal are confident that their decade-long efforts will bear fruits at the ballot box.Beauty Mandal, the Panchayat head of Malda and a BJP leader from Manikchak, asserts, “The BJP will perform excellently, not just in Malda but across North Bengal. The lack of payment for 100 days of work will not have any impact in the election outcome. Even Muslims will vote for us.”Based on the estimated data, the population of Muslims in West Bengal is 2.47 crore (27.01%) of a total of 9.13 crore. According to CSDS’s post-poll analysis, 70% of them voted for Trinamool in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This number increased to 75% in the 2021 election.However, in recent times, there have been signs of discontent.In the recent by election in Sagardighi, which has a 64% Muslim population, Trinamool Congress lost to Left-backed Congress candidate Byron Biswas. Despite Byron now having joined Trinamool, the result shows a shift in the voting pattern.Joydeep Sarkar is an independent senior journalist with over 20 years of experience in covering Bengal politics.Translated from the Bengali original by Aparna Bhattacharya.