The only time Manipur enters into our collective national consciousness is when there is violence. The violence is usually triggered by a specific incident and exposes the grievances of one community; and reporters who have little knowledge of the complexity of Manipur fall into the trap of local identity politics.Take the example of the latest spurt of violence in Manipur in which Nagas (who had remained largely neutral in the 2023 Meitei-Kuki clashes) have been attacked by the Kukis. The local press published an article by Timothy Zimik, a retired officer in the Indian Revenue Service with a formidable reputation for his cast iron integrity. Zimik is a Tangkhul Naga from, Sinakethei, one of the Tangkhul Naga villages, recently attacked by Kuki militants. The other villages are Litan, Ereng, Shangkai, Sharkaphung, and Kamjong Headquarters. According to Zimik the root cause of the conflict is: “The Kukis will stop attacking the innocent Naga villagers, only when the governments of India and Manipur stop supporting/ protecting them. This is the crux of the problem of Manipur…. Since the government of India and the present government of Manipur have sided with the Kuki illegal immigrants, the Kukis have become so bold and audacious to attack innocent Nagas without fear of any consequences.” he stated, referring to the incidents at Litan, Ereng, Sinakeithei, Shangkai, Sharkaphung, and Kamjong Headquarters. It would be difficult to understand why Kukis who have been portrayed as the victims of 2023 violence would suddenly attack the Nagas who were not only neutral during the 2023 violence but gave many Kukis shelter in their villages.Zimik goes on to state that the violence is linked to a factor:“Manipur has become the critical transit hub/point for illicit narcotics entering India from the Golden Triangle (comprising Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand), especially through its 398 km porous border with Myanmar.” This para exposes the fact that every incident of violence in Manipur is linked to a complex web of geo-political factors which need to be understood to arrive at why there is continued violence in Manipur. Zimik’s tirade against one community also exposes the fact that “narco-terrorism” can become a communal label rather than an analytical category. All reports on drug trafficking have exposed the fact that all communities are involved in this trade. Perhaps the first person to use the word “narco-terrorism” in the context of Manipur was a police officer called Thounaojam Brinda, who was given an award for her courageous fight against drug lords and then dismissed for service for arresting a drug lord and then refusing to release him on the telephonic order of the then chief minister. Even to understand a particular incident there is a need to go into the history of disputes over land, indigeneity, Scheduled Tribe status, ethnic security fears, and state-versus-corporate interests in the hills, poppy cultivation and drug networks. The drug trafficking networks involve hills, valleys, transporters, politicians, merchants, insurgents, and security actors, not one ethnic group alone.Manipur’s conflict may have begun through ethnic, land, and political triggers, but it has been prolonged and intensified by a narco-arms economy operating through Myanmar, with China’s influence in Myanmar forming the wider strategic backdrop.Manipur is adjacent to the Golden Triangle, that drug activity has surged in the state over the last 15 years, and that armed groups in both sides of the Indo-Myanmar border are linked to trafficking across the porous Myanmar border. Reuters has reported that fighters from Myanmar’s civil war have aggravated Manipur’s conflict and brought more sophisticated weapons, including rocket launchers and foreign-origin rifles, into the theatre. India Today reported, citing intelligence sources, that arms used in Manipur were smuggled through Myanmar and that some weapons were linked to a black market near the Myanmar-China border.ChinaChina has employed a sophisticated strategy while dealing with the civil war in Myanmar. Beijing’s cooperation with multiple opposing actors in Myanmar is nothing new. China’s policy in Myanmar is a “hedging” strategy, wherein authorities in Beijing and Yunnan Province foster ties with and leverage actors throughout Myanmar’s complex political environment. By simultaneously backing ethnic armed groups along the Chinese border, keeping ties with the pro-democracy resistance behind the scenes, and supporting the junta in Naypyidaw, China wants to make sure that whatever happens, it comes out on top.Thus China can manipulate the ethnic armed groups in Myanmar which have links with the Indian insurgents in the Northeast. India, like China, has diplomatic ties with Naypyidaw and has tried to have ties with ethnic armed groups but does not have the leverage that China has.The Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center analysis says India fears China is using instability around Myanmar and Manipur to weaken India’s influence in the northeast and deepen its foothold in Myanmar. The Print has also reported Indian officials alleging that China-backed Myanmar armed groups helped supply weapons and hideouts to Indian insurgents, though the report also notes denials and relies on unnamed officials.Manipur is an ethnic-political conflict that has been captured, financed, and escalated by narcotics, arms trafficking, Myanmar’s civil war, and China-linked regional power dynamics.The Ministry of Home Affairs monitors Manipur through a layered internal security situation with the help of the intelligence agencies as well as its North East Division. The North East Division also has a political channel by which they have a mandate to talk to the insurgent groups and hold peace talks. However, the monitoring mechanism is not transparent.What is missing in Manipur is the involvement of the civil society as a whole. Each community has its own mechanism for security and it is backed by its armed groups. The amount of arms and ammunition making their way to the Manipur insurgents is hard to imagine for people in the rest of the country. And this is despite the number of arms that have been recovered during the President’s rule. People in Manipur depend on their own ethnic armed organisations for protection since the security forces too have been divided along ethnic lines in times of heightened violence.There are no institutions which can facilitate dialogue between communities except the church in some instances. But they can only help in settling specific cases not the root causes of historical fault lines and matters involving foreign policy. In addition, Manipur is the playground for all kinds of intelligence agencies. The danger is that Manipur along with the rest of the Northeast become a theatre for proxy war. Manipur, like the rest of the Northeast is linked geographically to India by a 21 kilometre long Siliguri corridor. The corridor is the only rail and road link for 50 million people and crucial troop movements to the Northeast, making its security critical for larger national security. For individuals and families waiting for the violence to abate, the times are terrifying. They have only their own community and armed group to protect them and the security forces. But there is no space for democratic discussions across communities, and anyone who speaks out is silenced, sometimes literally by being shot and at other times by threats and intimidation from armed or vigilante groups. Can the civil society in India play a role in solidarity with the people of Manipur? It could if it would first understand the complexity of the situation and not rush to take sides. The need of the hour is for the Union government to have a policy for the Northeast and not just strategies for counter-insurgency; and this policy will require India to think of a foreign policy which can save Northeast from proxy wars. But more urgently, the civil society must be able to make interventions in an informed manner. The situation is very like what Burmese poet, Zeyar Lynn, one of the most influential poets in his country, wrote:Its Ok. Never Mind. Don’t take it seriously or evenPersonally. Shit happens.Anyway, its not your shit, is it?Its not your problem that our countryWill soon be the world’s unceremonious cemetery.Nandita Haksar is the author of Shooting the Sun: Why Manipur was Engulfed in Violence and the Government Remained Silent (Speaking Tiger, 2023).