An investigation into the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) “Special Intensive Revision” (SIR) in Bihar reveals a voter roll crisis. The ECI’s own data, measured against official government population figures, shows a gap of at least 94 lakh eligible voters.This number includes over 20 lakh young people who should be voting for the first time but have been left out. With major procedural hurdles yet to come, experts say the final number of citizens left off the rolls could reach 1.5 crore.The crisis began on June 24, 2025, when the ECI started the revision to prepare for assembly elections to be held later this year. The ECI has highlighted its removal of 65 lakh names of voters who had either died, moved or were duplicates. This number, however, hides a larger story of mass exclusion.An analysis of ECI data, official population projections, and an investigation by The Reporters’ Collective (TRC) exposes this reality. This article breaks down the numbers to answer a critical question: How many voters in Bihar are truly at risk of being disenfranchised?Bihar’s voter roll crisis: Numbers at a glance65 lakh: Voters deleted by the ECI (deceased, moved, duplicate).94 lakh: The real gap of eligible voters on the new draft roll.20.6 lakh: New 18-year-old voters who will be eligible by the election but have not been added.88%: Bihar’s new, historically low Elector-Population ratio (down from 97%).1.5 crore: The total projected number of citizens who could lose their right to vote.The ECI’s 65 lakh figure is misleading because it only counts deletions while ignoring the list’s overall health and the people who should have been added.To measure a voter roll’s accuracy, psephologists use the Elector-Population (EP) Ratio – the percentage of the adult (18+) population registered to vote. An ideal ratio is near 100%.Psephologist Yogendra Yadav, speaking to The Wire, applied this metric to Bihar. His calculation uses the government’s official “Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections,” the same source the ECI uses for planning. These official numbers reveal a significant gap.Total eligible adults: The government report projects Bihar’s 18+ population in July 2025 at 8.18 crore. This is how many citizens should be on the list.New registered voters: The ECI’s press release states that the new draft roll contains only 7.24 crore voters.The shortfall: 8.18 crore – 7.24 crore = 94 lakh.This is not a speculative number. The 94 lakh gap comes directly from comparing the ECI’s tally to the government’s own data. This shortfall has sent Bihar’s EP Ratio plummeting from 97% to a historic low of 88%.This gap has two parts:The disenfranchised: About 69 lakh citizens removed from the previous list.The unregistered: About 25 lakh eligible citizens, mostly new voters, who were never added.The missing first-time votersThe revision’s most glaring flaw is that it reports zero new voters added – a statistical impossibility for Bihar. The government’s Population Projections report (Table-20) shows exactly how many young voters were ignored.The report projects that 27.50 lakh people will turn 18 in Bihar during 2025.New voters by August 4: In the past seven months, 16.04 lakh people became eligible.New voters by October 1 (election time): By the election, 20.62 lakh people will have turned 18.By election day, over 20.6 lakh young citizens – an average of 8,500 per constituency – will be eligible to vote. The SIR, by having no mechanism for their inclusion, has the practical effect of locking the door on every single one of them. This reverses a decade of democratic practice in Bihar.ElectionTotal VotersGrowth from Previous Election2015 Assembly6.68 Crore(Baseline)2019 General7.11 Crore+ 43 Lakh2020 Assembly7.36 Crore+ 25 Lakh2024 General7.67 Crore+ 31 LakhJan 2025 (Old Roll)7.80 Crore+ 13 LakhSIR Draft Roll 20257.24 Crore– 56 LakhAs the data shows, Bihar’s voter rolls have always grown. The SIR has not just halted this growth; it has reversed it with unprecedented ferocity.ECI’s false claimThe ECI claimed this drastic measure was necessary because Bihar’s rolls were flawed. The Reporters’ Collective investigation showed this claim was false.A valid roll was junked: The TRC proved that the ECI had already published a final, “robust” roll of 7.80 crore voters in January 2025. It junked this list just five months later.The process is legally dubious: “Special Intensive Revision” is a new term not found in electoral law. It forces anyone enrolled after 2003 to prove their eligibility again with a restrictive list of documents – a discriminatory process with no modern precedent.The goalposts have shifted: On the ground, the exercise has become a citizenship verification drive, a task far beyond the ECI’s mandate.The evidence suggests that the ECI manufactured this crisis by discarding a healthy, recently verified voter roll.The path to 1.5 croreThe 94 lakh shortfall is a baseline, not a ceiling. The number will likely climb through three more procedural hurdles.Booth Level Officers (BLOs): After forms are submitted, BLOs can mark them “not recommended.” Early data from some districts suggests a rejection rate of 10-12%, putting millions more at risk.The document gauntlet: Voters must now submit one of 11 specific documents. For the poor, migrants, and marginalised who lack extensive paperwork, this is a formidable barrier. For a daily wage labourer who has moved for work, or a rural woman whose name on her documents doesn’t match her husband’s family records, this bureaucratic maze can erase their political voice.The ERO’s discretion: The final decision rests with the Electoral Registration Officer (ERO), who can reject any application after a “local inquiry.”TRC’s reporting revealed how mass exclusion works at these stages: BLOs have been told to accept forms without documents but to “set them aside” for a later, opaque review. This creates a ‘suspense file’ of vulnerable voters.Given these hurdles, experts project the final number will be much higher.Baseline shortfall: 94 lakh (confirmed).Potential additional exclusions: 50-60 lakh (projected).Total potential exclusion: Up to 1.5 crore citizens.The SIR could deny up to 1.5 crore eligible citizens in Bihar – nearly one in five adults – their right to vote. The implications of this exercise in Bihar could have far reaching consequences if taken up at a national level. Read The Wire’s full coverage of the Bihar SIR here.