New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has sought to push aside its setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when it failed to get a majority on its own, with successive wins in state assembly elections since. Apart from Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand, the BJP has emerged victorious, even ahead of its own allies in every other state assembly election including Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi and Bihar.In 2026, the BJP is facing an uphill task as five assembly elections are scheduled next month, including three states ruled by opposition parties. The saffron party is in government in only one state, Assam, and in coalition with others in the Union Territory of Puducherry. It’s facing tough competition in the remaining states – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.The BJP not only faces strong regional parties like the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu, which have been in power for 15 years and 10 years respectively, it is also looking to register its electoral presence in the Kerala assembly after winning its maiden lone seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and following it up with an impressive performance in the local body elections last year which included capturing control of the state capital Thiruvananthapuram for the first time. While the party has emerged as the principal opposition in West Bengal over the last decade, it is only in Assam, that the BJP has a legacy presence. It has been in power in the state since 2016 and is now eying a third straight term riding chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s aggressive Hindutva politics who is going into the polls with high communal rhetoric, action against Bengali speaking Muslims in the state and infiltration from Bangladesh. In Tamil Nadu, on the other hand, the BJP is yet to register a significant presence and is looking to ride on the shoulder of its allies. In Puducherry, while the electoral battle may be low stakes, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is hanging in the balance amid reports of a rift between the BJP and All India N.R. Congress (AINRC).Assam, Kerala and Puducherry will vote on April 9; polling in Tamil Nadu will be held on April 23, and in West Bengal on April 23 and April 29. Results will be announced on May 4.West BengalWest Bengal remains the BJP’s long desired state, where it has worked over the last decade to emerge as the principal opposition, edging out the Left and the Congress despite 15 years of uninterrupted TMC rule. Such is the focus on winning West Bengal that Union home minister Amit Shah announced in a rally in January, that though there are 21 BJP and NDA governments in the country, Modi will only have “peace of mind” once a BJP government is formed in Bengal.Over the last decade, the BJP has made sustained efforts to make inroads into West Bengal. In 2014, as the BJP under Modi secured a thumping majority in the Lok Sabha elections, in West Bengal the party won only two seats, and just three seats in the 2016 assembly elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, however, the BJP handed out a shock to the TMC by winning 18 seats, and then followed it up in the 2021 assembly elections by winning 77 seats. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, its tally came down to 12 seats. The party’s vote share has increased in the last two assembly elections, rising from 10.17% in 2016 to 37.9% in 2021. In contrast, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s vote share stood at 38.73%, compared to 40.6% in the 2019 elections.The BJP is driving its West Bengal electoral campaign on driving out alleged illegal infiltrators through the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter rolls in the state which has left 60 lakh voters in limbo, while looking to cash in on 15 years of anti-incumbency and corruption under the TMC. It is, however, facing stiff opposition from the TMC’s popular welfare schemes, as well as chief minister Mamata Banerjee who has alleged that the BJP is using the Election Commission (EC) as a tool to win the polls through the the SIR and is locked in an ongoing confrontation with the poll body that has also seen her appearing in the Supreme Court against the exercise. In the absence of a tall local leader, the BJP is also facing TMC’s chagrin of being “outsiders” as it rakes up Bengali pride.KeralaLike West Bengal, the BJP’s efforts in Kerala over the last decade have also begun to show fruit. The party is in a three-cornered fight in the state, pitched against the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF). In the 2021 assembly elections, the LDF defied the state’s trend of voting out the incumbent and returned to power for a second straight term. While the BJP won one seat in the 2016 assembly elections, it took another eight years for the party to win another single seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when Suresh Gopi won from Thrissur. The party has improved its vote share in the Lok Sabha elections from 10.33% in 2014 to 16.67% in 2024. In assembly elections, the NDA’s vote share dipped, though the BJP itself improved its vote share by 0.77% in comparison to 2016 by getting 11.3%.The local body elections in the state has also brought alarm bells for the Left front, with the BJP wresting Thiruvananthapuram Corporation. The Congress-led UDF swept through urban and rural Kerala, the Left was reduced to controlling just one of six major corporations, and the ruling front faced its worst defeat in decades.Despite these gains, as well as anti-incumbency against the Pinarayi Vijayan government in the state, the BJP faces significant hurdles even though the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has spread out there. In 2024, The New Indian Express reported that the RSS was running over 5,000 shakhas in the state, more than those in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat.However, Hindu vote consolidation remains difficult with Kerala’s combined population of Christians and Muslims at about 45%. It also lacks a strong local face, even though state unit president Rajeev Chandrashekhar, fought till the end against the Congress’ Shashi Tharoor in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Chandrashekhar has now promised a corruption free government, but the headwinds of global developments may also muddy the saffron party’s efforts in the state with a large population living in the Gulf countries, which is facing the brunt of US-Israel’s war on Iran.Tamil NaduIn Tamil Nadu, the BJP is yet to contest on its own with the electoral fight in the state largely between the Dravidian parties particularly the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the DMK. The BJP has once again forged an alliance with the AIADMK after the two parties had broken off their alliance ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2021 assembly elections, the alliance with the AIADMK helped the BJP win four seats and open its account in the state for the first time since 2001 when it had won the same number of seats in alliance with the DMK combine. In the 2021 assembly elections, the BJP improved its vote share to 2.61% even though it contested only 20 seats in contrast with the 2.84% in 2016, when it had contested in 188 seats. While it did not win any seat in the 2024 elections, its vote share increased to 11.26% from 5.47% in 2014 when it had won one seat.The BJP faces an upward task in the state, perceived as a north Indian party, with the DMK continuing confrontation with the union government’s “Hindi imposition” through the NEP which remains a longstanding issue in the state. While the BJP has made one of its tall leaders from the state C.P. Radhakrishnan, the Vice President just last year, it still lacks a local face. The BJP’s focus on communal politics has also found little favour even though the saffron party has been striving to gain a foothold in the state. Modi’s rallies too this year has focused on corruption by the DMK government and the promise of development.AssamOf the four states, the BJP is in a comfortable position in Assam where it has been in the government for a decade and is eyeing a third straight term. Unlike West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, no SIR has been conducted in the state, which has only seen a summary revision before the polls. The BJP’s campaign in the state is relying on a high communal rhetoric against the state’s Bengali speaking Muslims including open calls for exclusion, demographic changes in the border state, and promising to push out illegal immigrants. Combined with Sarma’s aggressive Hindutva , the party’s social media accounts have been posting blatant Islamophobic videos, but have not faced any action from the EC. It was only recently forced to pull down a video that showed Muslims being targeted with a gun following public outrage.With about 34% of the electorate Muslims, the party is looking to edge out Muslim consolidation behind the Congress, which is still finalising its alliance details. The BJP has also successfully brought on board two senior Congress leaders – Nagaon MP Pradyut Bardoloi and former state unit chief Bhupen Kumar Borah within a month.PuducherryThe battle in Puducherry in comparison has less at stake. While the BJP in Puducherry is in alliance with the AINRC, seat sharing talks have reportedly faced hurdles over the push for statehood and the inclusion of Latchiya Jananayaga Katchi (LJK). The party has been formed by Jose Charles Martin, the son of “Lottery King” Santiago Martin, India’s single largest electoral bond donor, who purchased electoral bonds worth Rs 1,368 crore between 2019 and 2024.