New Delhi: The forthcoming Karnataka assembly elections will be fought on the heels of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s conviction in a criminal defamation case and his subsequent disqualification as a Lok Sabha member. Gandhi’s conviction appears to have energised the Congress like never before in recent years, and observers believe some of that verve may show in the party’s electoral campaign in the state.The cards are stacked in its favour, too. Since 1985, no incumbent party has returned to power. The beginning of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s current term was far from ideal. Having failed to get a clear majority, it could form the government only after breaking the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition. Since then, it has courted one controversy after another.Allegations of rampant corruption against the Basavaraj Bommai regime have earned it the tag “40% commission government”. Its failure to act on the statewide agrarian crisis, especially in sugarcane farming and water shortage, has had farmers protesting quite frequently. Many of the development promises made by the BJP remain unfulfilled or progress at a snail’s pace. The Bommai government has also had to deal with different social groups who demanded better socio-political representation than they already had.On top of these, Bommai is seen as a weak leader without the mass support that his mentor, B.S. Yediyurappa, enjoyed. The BJP is known to be a disciplined, cadre-based organisation elsewhere, but not in Karnataka. Friction in the state BJP ranks has shown itself on a daily basis, with one or other BJP legislator making cryptic comments about the Bommai government. It is widely known that the Karnataka BJP is divided into two bitter factions – one led by the BJP’s national general secretary B.L. Santosh and the other by Yediyurappa.Also read: Who Killed Tipu? Why Twisting Historical Facts Is the BJP’s Only Route to Victory in Karnataka.The Santosh camp is essentially a bunch of Hindutva hardliners, like BJP state president Nalin Kumar Kateel, state minister C.T. Ravi, Union minister Anant Kumar Hegde and others. In recent times, these leaders, known for making frequent Isalmophobic and polarising comments, have been emboldened by the top leadership of the party, much to the displeasure of the Yediyurappa camp, which takes credit for building the party’s organisation in Karnataka by consolidating different social groups and, crucially, by staying at an arm’s length from Hindutva issues.Bommai, originally Yediyurappa’s protégé, has had to sail on both these boats. With Yediyurappa taking the backstage, Bommai could hardly assert himself in front of the emboldened Hindutva hardliners in the party. As a result, he not only came across as indecisive but also veered towards placating the interests of the Santosh camp, which raked up the hijab controversy, vilified the 18th century ruler Tipu Sultan to target the Muslim community and demonised any form of civil-society dissent.Having failed to score on the development front, Bommai, and by default the BJP, is banking entirely on a three-pronged campaign in the assembly elections – Hindu-Muslim polarisation, the newly introduced reservation system that removed the 4% quota for Muslims and distributed it equally among the dominant Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities, and the party’s extensive outreach among Vokkaligas in south Karnataka, where it has enjoyed a negligible presence until now.The new reservation system, which pitches the Muslims against the dominant OBCs reflects Bommai’s dilemma accurately. By alienating the Muslims further, it appeases the Hindutva camp but also attempts to restore the Yediyurappa-style social-justice plank placating the social groups that have felt underrepresented for a long time. Similarly, Bommai, a Lingayat leader, has taken care not to be seen as a keen votary of the BJP’s Vokkaliga outreach, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself leading the campaign in south Karnataka.Also read: Denying OBC Reservation to Muslims Is Unconstitutional and CommunalAgainst such a backdrop, the Congress has emerged as a formidable challenger to the BJP’s confused strategy. Former chief minister Siddaramaiah and Pradesh Congress Committee president D.K. Shivakumar have set aside their differences and projected a united front in the run-up to the assembly elections. The Bharat Jodo Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi a few months ago was seen as particularly successful in Karnataka and garnered much attention. The Congress has targeted corruption scandals during the Bommai regime with vigour, while its leaders have engaged different social groups more frequently than before. For the Congress to convert its gains into victory, it will have to win over a large number of non-dominant social groups – influential in multiple pockets – among whom the BJP has made considerable inroads.The Congress is the only opposition party with a solid presence across the state. In 2018, it won fewer seats than the BJP but still increased its vote share by almost two percentage points. The BJP’s stronghold is concentrated in northwest, central, and coastal Karnataka, with negligible footprint in the south and northwest regions of the state.The primary reason both the BJP and the Congress struggle to attain a clear majority in the state is the solid presence of the Janata Dal (Secular) in south Karnataka, a prosperous Vokkaliga hotbed. The party led by H.D. Deve Gowda and H.D. Kumaraswamy enjoys hearty support among the Vokkaliga community in south Karnataka, which sends around 40 legislators to the assembly. In every assembly election, the JD(S)’s strike rate has been remarkable. That is why the Deve Gowda clan has often been called “kingmakers”, and enjoys disproportionate weight in the state politics. The BJP’s Vokkaliga outreach in the old Mysore region is an attempt to weaken the JD(S).However, the JD(S) is very interestingly placed in Karnataka. While it restricts the BJP’s expansion in south Karnataka, any gain that it makes in north Karnataka comes at the expense of the Congress, putting the BJP at an advantage.On paper, Karnataka is a triangular electoral battle. But in reality, it is a bipolar fight in different regions with a different set of interests. In north, central, and coastal Karnataka, the electoral battle is between the Congress and the BJP, with the JD(S) often playing the spoiler. In south and parts of central Karnataka, the fight is often between the Congress and the JD(S). It remains to be seen to what extent both the national parties can undercut the influence of the Deve Gowda clan, seen as overlords among the influential Vokkaliga community.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire – and has been republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.
