Nitish Kumar’s exit as Bihar chief minister after nearly 20 years in the saddle marks the end of an era. But will his successor, Samrat Choudhary, herald the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) era in the state?The question is moot, given the complexity of the composition of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as well as that of Bihar’s society. Despite Nitish’s departure from the chief ministership, his party, the Janata Dal (United), has 85 MLAs against the BJP’s 89. The two parties are nearly equal in strength in the Assembly, but their roots are sharply different – as different as the parties are in terms of their social composition and ideological moorings.These structural and ideological differences have manifested before – every time the two parties falling apart thrice before coming together again. The replacement of Nitish with the Deputy Chief Minister from the BJP can hardly be expected to smother these differences.Patna’s political air is surcharged with emotion right now, with JD(U) cadres, a section of BJP supporters and people lamenting Nitish’s exit. He performed impressively on the parameters of infrastructure – roads, electricity, schools and hospitals were in focus like never before. The Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and the Mahadalits, who together constitute about 50% of the state’s voters, have reason to miss him, for he gave them preferential treatment in development schemes as well as in the political structure. And so do women, who never enjoyed as favoured a position in the past as they did during Nitish’s tenure.But to describe Nitish’s exit as the end of an era is only a half-truth. It, in fact, marks the end of the over 36-year-long spell that began with the ascendancy of Lalu Prasad Yadav as chief minister in March 1990. Nitish was one of the architects of that historic change. Both Lalu and he were products of the same movement – the Jayaprakash Narayan-led Total Revolution of the 1970s.It is Lalu’s tenure, beginning in 1990, then with Nitish on his side, that marked the real shift in Bihar’s political landscape. The politics of “social justice”, in which backward classes replaced the Congress-dominated social elites once and for all, left an enduring stamp on Bihar. The implementation of the Mandal Commission report in 1990-91 further cemented the position of the backward classes.It is also a fact that Nitish, with the BJP on his side, replaced the 15-year-old Lalu-Rabri regime in 2005. Of course, he relentlessly portrayed his tenure as a reprieve from “jungle raj”, a narrative the media readily lapped up. However, if one reads through the intricate layers of the state’s politics, Nitish, in many ways, only continued what began in 1990. His “growth with justice” formula retained many of the ingredients of the social justice politics that Lalu had defined.Thus, Nitish’s exit marks the end of an era over which the two stalwarts of the JP movement have presided continuously for well over three and a half decades.BJP Era?It is too early to say that the BJP, by having found a chief minister in Samrat Choudhary, will rule Bihar in the manner it rules neighbouring Uttar Pradesh under the stewardship of Yogi Adityanath. Be it Nitish’s clout among the marginalised classes or the BJP’s own structural weakness, the Hindutva party has never looked poised to emerge as the dominant political power in the state, unlike in Uttar Pradesh.Also read: Nitish Kumar’s Exit Will Pave the Way for the Remaking of Bihar’s PoliticsThe party won 91 seats in 2010 and 89 in 2025. But on both occasions it contested in alliance with Nitish’s JD(U). When it contested separately in 2015 against the RJD-JDU-Congress Mahagathbandhan, it was reduced to 53 seats. There is no reason to believe even today that the BJP, on its own strength, can take its tally much beyond that mark.Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “charisma” and Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s organisational strength may occupy much space in the media. But the state’s ground reality hardly matches the prominence the media accords them, particularly in Bihar’s context.There is much talk doing the rounds about the “fate” of the JD(U) after the possible transition of Nitish to the Rajya Sabha. But the state BJP has its own share of woes. In today’s circumstances, Samrat Choudhary – who moved from Lalu’s own Rashtriya Janata Dal to the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), then to the JD(U), before settling into the BJP eight years ago – may have won the race against his rivals in the party.But the going may not be easy for the son of a former minister in the Lalu Yadav government, Shakuni Choudhary, given the numerous hostile factions within the saffron outfit. Some reports suggest that Nitish preferred Samrat, overlooking the claims of others who have been dedicated to the Sangh Parivar’s worldview for their entire political lives.Once the dust settles on the transition in Bihar, Samrat will find himself battling competitors within the BJP as well as a “core” group within the JD(U) that sees a ray of hope in Nishant Kumar, Nitish’s son.Nishant and TejashwiIn many ways, Nishant – who has broken his long reluctance to join the JD(U) – and Tejashwi Yadav are similar in terms of having inherited political legacies. While Tejashwi, who has been in active politics for over a decade and is the Leader of the Opposition in the Bihar Assembly, has inherited the legacy of his father Lalu Prasad Yadav, Nishant has inherited that of his father. But at their core these legacies are very similar – socialist and secular politics rooted in the philosophy of Jayaprakash Narayan, Ram Manohar Lohia and Karpoori Thakur.Nishant is still untested and inexperienced in political work. There are no indications yet that he would part ways with the BJP and join hands with Tejashwi. But given Bihar’s political identity, it would be unwise to say that Nishant will stay with the BJP forever and never join hands with Tejashwi.Watch the days and years ahead as Bihar’s political horizon unfolds.Nalin Verma is a journalist, author and educator.