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Why the Karnataka Assembly Elections Are a Do-or-Die Battle for the Congress

A win in a big state would be a major bump for the party.

Bengaluru: It would not be wrong to say that the Congress is facing a do or die battle in Karnataka. This assembly election is important as the Congress that has been on the backfoot after the two humiliating defeats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections as well as crushing debacles in a string of assembly elections in different parts of the country over the last many years.

A win in a big state would be a major bump for the party. In fact, the Congress is yet to win a major state since its impressive wins in three assembly elections at the end of 2018: Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In MP, however, in around a year, the party’s government collapsed due to the defections of Congress MLAs to the BJP engineered by then Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia. In Rajasthan, the party’s government somehow survived backlash from the young Sachin Pilot, who was state party president during the elections but had to give up chief ministerial dreams for veteran Ashok Gehlot. Pilot’s rebellion was short-lived but the unrest in the party in the state continues. Gehlot’s supporting MLAs too rebelled, in a way, as the party wanted the chief minister to take over as the national president of the Congress which the 71-year-old `magician’ was not willing to accept. The Congress also faced the collapse of its the coalition government (with Janata Dal-Secular) in Karnataka a year after its formation in 2018.

In many other states, including Punjab, the Congress lost the elections entirely, which some have seen as the outcome of a series of wrong decisions the leadership took. In 2023, it faced serious existentialist problems in the north-east as it got wiped out in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland. The only state it won was the small state of Himachal Pradesh. This was deemed a consolation prize, coming after defeats in more than a dozen states. Among the states it lost last year was Gujarat, where its tally of 17 seats (out of 182) was the lowest ever.

Electorally, winning in Karnataka is important for Congress in view of the elections later this year in Telangana, MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh (besides Mizoram). A win in the southern state will be a morale booster for the party and its cadres to face polls confidently in these states.

A win in Karnataka will not only set the pace for the assembly polls later in the year but also for the Lok Sabha elections slated for the next year. A good show is badly needed for the beleaguered Congress to face the national elections.

Looking to 2024

One key factor in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls is how the anti-BJP parties fight the elections. Right now, there is no clarity on a unified opposition taking on the BJP but the efforts towards this may gather momentum in the next few months. The question is, who will lead such a front? With some of the regional outfits like the AAP, Trinamool Congress, Bharat Rashtra Congress etc. becoming stronger, these parties have suggested that they don’t want the Congress (in effect Rahul Gandhi) to lead such an opposition front. A win in Karnataka will boost the Congress’s chances of heading such a front, while a loss will almost end any talk of a Congress-led anti-BJP group of parties. There are already other opposition parties, as mentioned above, looking to form their own fronts to take on the BJP in 2024.

A defeat will also be seen as a setback for the Congress as regards the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike, elections to which are getting postponed for one reason or the other for the last three years. A case relating to the reservation of wards in the city council is going on in the Karnataka high court and the Supreme Court. Performing well in the capital city is crucial for both the national parties as that will take them closer to power. The city has a total of 28 seats. In 2018, Congress won 15 seats (later it won two more seats) and BJP 11 seats. A good show in the assembly elections will impact the BBMP election. If the BBMP ends in a hung council, the assembly election results in the city become important as the MLAs (along with other people’s representatives of the city) are eligible to vote in the BBMP council.

Unlike in most parts of the country, the Congress is a powerful force in Karnataka; its party cadres are spread out in every nook and corner of the state. It also has strong local leaders, again unlike in many state units. So losing Karnataka would be particularly hurtful for the Congress.

But unlike the BJP, the Congress has not developed any second line of leadership in the state. The party has three leaders who are known statewide – Siddaramaiah (75), Shivakumar (60) and Mallikarjun Kharge (80). Kharge and Siddu are unlikely to contest the next assembly elections (whenever they are held). So, other than Shivakumar, there will be no leader with a mass base come the next assembly elections. So, from this point of view too, winning this election is important for the party.

B.S. Arun is a senior journalist based in Bengaluru.


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