New Delhi: Some astute candidate selection in assembly constituencies falling in the Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar Lok Sabha constituency has propelled the Congress into a strong position for the upcoming assembly elections in Uttarakhand.The party, which opinion polls show to be in a neck-and-neck fight with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, had fared poorly in this region in 2017. But this time, its prospects look better because of its decision to give tickets to former rebels and make last-minute changes to curb a new rebellion.Of the 14 assembly segments falling in this Lok Sabha constituency, the Congress had managed to win only one – Jaspur in Udhamsingh Nagar district – last time. But this time, opinion polls show the party is ahead in a majority of seats.One of the prominent factors working in favour of the Congress is that the state has never re-elected a party. This trend looks set to continue. The BJP, which won 56 of the 70 seats in the last elections, is also facing a lot of rebellion and only on Thursday expelled six party leaders for contesting against its nominees.Another factor going in favour of the Congress is that this region has a large population of Muslims and Sikhs, most of whom reside in the lower Terai region. The BJP will face the anger of Sikhs for the party’s stand during the farmers’ agitation and the Lakhimpur Kheri violence in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh.But a major reason for the Congress’s brighter prospects is that former chief minister Harish Rawat has emerged as the most popular choice among people to occupy the post again. Though the Congress has still not announced Rawat as its chief ministerial candidate, over 40% of the people in the state have expressed their preference for him in these polls.By shifting Rawat, Congress prevented a major rebellionAs for the Congress, it appears to have played its cards better than the BJP thus far in the matter of ticket distribution. The party has also not shied away from taking harsh decisions and making changes where needed.It set an example in the case of Rawat itself. Rawat, who had in 2017 lost both from Haridwar Rural and Kichha constitunces, wanted to contest from Ramnagar this time. The Congress first even named him from the constituency but later shifted him to Lalkuan to avoid any kind of rebellion by the state working president Ranjit Rawat, who had been nurturing Ramnagar for the past many years.A former confidante of Harish Rawat, Ranjit too wanted to contest from Ramnagar. To avoid a confrontation between the two stalwarts, the party moved Harish Rawat to Lalkuan and Ranjit Rawat to Salt, from where he had twice won before.Settling two rebellions with one moveThis move also settled another rebellion that was brewing in Lalkuan. Here, former cabinet minister Harish Chandra Durgapal had threatened to quit the party in protest against the Congress’s previously announced candidate Sandhya Dalakoti.Durgapal, who had won the Lalkuan seat in 2012, had also contested it in 2017 but had lost to Naveen Chandra Dumka of the BJP by 27,108 votes. He had managed to poll 17,185 or 21.27% of the total votes polled. As such he wanted another shot at the seat now, when the prospects of the Congress appear brighter.But, after Harish Rawat’s candidature was confirmed, Durgapal avowed to stay loyal to the party and said he would continue to work for the Congress and “ensure Rawat’s victory”.Now, Rawat will face off against Bharatiya Janata Party’s Mohan Singh Bisht, who was given the ticket after the saffron party decided to axe its sitting MLA Dumka.It is interesting to note that Rawat was picked for Lalkuan even though it falls in the Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar Lok Sabha constituency. Rawat had contested the general election from this seat in 2019 but lost to Ajay Bhatt of the BJP by 339,096 votes. However, he had polled over 4.33 lakh votes which indicated that there were strong pockets of support for him in the region.Congress makes amends in KaladhungiThe Congress has also improved its prospects in the region by acknowledging the power of leaders who had in the past contested as independent candidates after they were denied tickets but still remained ‘loyal’. For example, in Kaladhungi, the Congress is expected to do well this time. While the BJP has fielded its minister and six-time MLA Banshidhar Bhagat from the seat, the Congress has this time given the ticket to its state general secretary Mahesh Sharma who had contested the seat as an independent candidate in 2012 and 2017 after the Congress denied him the ticket.This seat was formed after delimitation in 2008 and has been won by the BJP ever since.In the 2012 election, Bhagat defeated Prakash Joshi of the Congress by 2,300 votes. In the 2017 elections, he bettered the margin as Sharma polled 20,300 votes which resulted in the defeat of the Congress candidate, Prakash Joshi, who had polled 25,107 votes. The split in the Congress vote had resulted in a win for Bhagat who got 45,704 votes.Apart from Kshatriyas and Brahmins, the Kaladhungi seat also has a sizeable population of Dalits, Muslims and Poorvanchalis. However, the two main parties have been traditionally fielded Brahmins from here – which has not changed this time too.
