On August 18, 2025, the opposition INDIA bloc launched the 1,300-km ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’ from Sasaram, Bihar, to protest alleged electoral roll manipulations. Rahul Gandhi accused the Election Commission of India (ECI) of colluding with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in “vote chori” (vote theft), a charge echoed by Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav, who termed it “vote dacoity”. These allegations also seem to have fueled caste-based political mobilisation, as parties intensify efforts to woo key voter groups ahead of the 2027 UP assembly elections. On August 21, in Kushinagar, Samajwadi Party state president Shyam Lal Pal amplified these claims, accusing the BJP government of betraying the Chauhan community, an OBC group, by reducing OBC reservations.The Samajwadi Party appears resolute in keeping the voter list controversy alive, strategically highlighting it to rally its supporters. Speaking to The Wire, Samajwadi Party MP from Ghosi Lok Sabha constituency Rajeev Rai said, “When we carefully go through this vote deletion exercise, we can clearly see that most of the deleted votes belong to the PDA class. An investigation is crucial to address this disparity. Why is the government not ordering an investigation on such a sensitive issue?” With the SP’s PDA (pichhda, Dalit, alpsankhyak – Dalit, backward and marginalised) strategy targeting non-Yadav OBCs, Jatavs, and Muslims, and the BJP reinforcing its support among upper-caste and non-Yadav OBC voters, the controversy over voter list fraud and the resultant caste mobilisation has set the stage for a high-stakes electoral showdown in Uttar Pradesh.The enduring role of casteIn Uttar Pradesh, caste dynamics weave the intricate tapestry of political strategy, shaping voter loyalties, alliances, and candidate choices. As the 2027 elections loom, these social threads remain vital, anchoring party fortunes amidst shifting tides. Samajwadi Party, led by Akhilesh Yadav, soared to victory in 2012, weaving dreams of unity and progress. Yet, the BJP cast a long shadow, dominating the 2017 and 2022 state elections, alongside the 2014 and 2019 national polls. In 2024, the Samajwadi Party-led INDIA coalition staged a vibrant resurgence, clinching 43 Lok Sabha seats, including a dazzling triumph in Faizabad, proving that caste dynamics and deft alliances remain the pulsing heart of UP’s political saga.‘Upper’ castes: The BJP’s strongholdThe upper echelons – Brahmins, Thakurs/Rajputs, and Vaishyas/Baniyas – stand as unyielding strongholds for the BJP, their loyalty resolute. Brahmins display the strongest support, closely matched by the steadfast Rajputs and Vaishyas, all firmly bound by the enduring ties of Hindutva and ancestral tradition. An even stronger consolidation in support of the saffron party than what was witnessed in previous elections is being indicated on the ground.The SP’s PDA clarion calls appears to be a calculated gambit to court non-Yadav OBCs, yet it further estranges the ‘upper’ castes, deepening their allegiance to the BJP.Also read: Interview | ‘Fully Assured Caste Census Demands Will Be Met by BJP’: O.P. RajbharYadavs: The SP’s coreWithin the OBC constellation, the Yadavs shine as the SP’s steadfast core, commanding 82% loyalty in 2024. Once scattered in the tempests of 2014, 2017, and 2019, they have coalesced into a formidable force since 2022, with 2024 marking their brightest unity since the SP’s inception. Seers of 2027 foresee a stellar rise, potentially surpassing the previous figures, a resolute pillar in the electoral storm.“Ham log SP ka saansad banwayen par jeetne ke baad phir unke voter bahot hud-dang machane lagte hain (We voted an SP candidate to win, but after the victory, their voters start causing a lot of trouble),” said a non-Yadav OBC shopkeeper from Ayodhya assembly seat.Non-Yadav OBCs: The Swing VoteNon-Yadav OBCs Kurmis, Kushwahas/Mauryas, Lodhs, Nishads, Rajbhars, and Extremely Backward Classes form a lively political arena. The BJP won 40-50% of their votes in 2022, but the SP-led INDIA coalition’s 2024 rise, sparked by reservation concerns and constitutional zeal, recaptured significant support. The recent accusations in Kushinagar by Shyam Lal Pal highlight the SP’s focus on non-Yadav OBCs like the Chauhan community, alleging that BJP’s reservation cuts have alienated these groups, potentially swaying them toward the SP in 2027.Lodhs and Nishads largely stay with the BJP, while Kurmis, hesitating, lean slightly toward the SP. Strategic candidate choices could cement these trends, with Kurmis holding the key to Uttar Pradesh’s political throne. In Purvanchal, Rajbhars’ tilt toward the SP, swayed by the likes of Ram Achal Rajbhar.“Rajbhar ke naam pa to ham log ek jan ka jaanit hai Ram Achal Rajbhar” (We only know one Rajbhar, Ram Achal Rajbhar),” said a Rajbhar voter from Akbarpur assembly seat in Ambedkar Nagar.Jatavs: Shifting from BSP to SPJatavs, a key Scheduled Caste (SC) group, were traditionally the Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP) stronghold, commanding robust support in 2012. However, their loyalty to the BSP declined in 2022 and further in 2024, with most of it shifting to the SP and INDIA coalition due to the BSP’s weakening influence and fears of constitutional changes. This trend is expected to continue in 2027, with projections estimating strong Jatav support for the SP and INDIA coalition.Non-Jatav Dalits: A divided voteNon-Jatav Dalits, including Pasis, Valmikis, and Koris, have been a contested group. In 2022, the BJP secured almost half of their votes through welfare schemes, but in 2024, concerns over jobs and reservations tilted 50% toward the SP. For 2027, non-Jatav Dalits are expected to remain divided, with a slight SP advantage, as sentiments around economic and reservation issues persist.Muslims: A unified SP allyMuslims showed strong consolidation for the SP and INDIA coalition, with 90% support in 2024, driven by tactical voting against the BJP. The trend was consistent with 2022. For 2027, this near-unanimous support is expected to continue, bolstered by strategic alliances.Jats: BJP’s western UP baseIn western Uttar Pradesh, Jats, an influential OBC group, largely supported the BJP, with 70% backing in 2022 and 2024, reinforced by the BJP-Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance. Minor shifts to the SP/RLD alliance occurred in 2024 due to farmers’ issues, but ground sentiments suggest stronger consolidation for the BJP in 2027, potentially surpassing the previous figures.Caste GroupEstimated Population PercentageNotesOther Backward Classes (OBC)50%Hukum Singh Committee (2001) estimates OBCs at over 50%– Yadav9.7–10%19.4% of OBC population, assuming OBCs are 50% of total– Kurmi/Patel3.70%7.4% of OBC population– Nishad/Mallah/Kevat2.15%4.3% of OBC population– Bhar/Rajbhar1.20%2.4% of OBC population– Lodh2.40%4.8% of OBC population– Jat1.80%3.6% of OBC population– Other OBCs25–30%Remaining OBC sub-castes (e.g., Kahar, Gadaria, Kumhar, Teli, etc.)Scheduled Castes (SC)20.70%2011 Census data: 4.14 Cr out of 19.98 Cr total population– Chamar/Jatav11.25%54.39% of SC population (2.24 Cr)– Pasi3.27%15.77% of SC population (65.22 Lakh)– Dhobi1.22%5.88% of SC population (24.33 Lakh)– Kori1.15%5.55% of SC population (22.94 Lakh)– Balmiki0.66%3.19% of SC population (13.19 Lakh)– Khatik0.47%2.25% of SC population (9.30 Lakh)– Dhanuk0.33%1.57% of SC population (6.51 Lakh)– Other SCs2.35%Remaining SC sub-castesScheduled Tribes (ST)0.57%2011 Census data: 11.34 Lakh out of 19.98 Cr total populationForward Castes19%Estimated, including Brahmins, Rajputs, etc.– Brahmin9–10%Estimated as the largest Forward Caste group– Rajput7%Estimated, significant in western UP– Other Forward Castes2–3%Baniyas, Kayasthas, Khatris, etc.Muslims19.26%2011 Census data: 3.85 Cr out of 19.98 Cr total populationOthers0.90%Sikhs (0.32%), Christians (0.18%), Jains (0.11%), Buddhists (0.1%), etc. The BSP’s declineThe BSP, once a major force with a strong vote share in 2012, has experienced a sharp decline. Its support base eroded significantly by 2022 and continued to shrink in 2024. Projections for 2027 suggest an even further decline, driven by its failure to mobilise voters, reluctance to form alliances, and the state’s shift to a bipolar SP-BJP contest, with the SP gaining the most from this erosion.“Hamaar gaaon me sab kuch karaye waali Behenji hain, ham logan ka insaaf dilaaye waali behen ji hain par abahin shant hain to jo hamre samaaj ki baat kariye vote paiye (In our village, it was Behenji who did everything for us, she was the one who fought for our rights, but since she’s been quiet lately, we will vote for the candidate and party that speaks up for our rights and our people),” said a Dalit voter from Kursi assembly constituency in Barabanki.Key dynamics for 2027Several forces will sculpt the 2027 odyssey. The SP’s electoral aura, building on its rising momentum from past elections, hinges on masterful unification of Kurmis and non-Jatav Dalits. In Bundelkhand’s rugged heart, reverence for Congress, particularly Rahul Gandhi, burns as an eternal flame. Ticket alchemy will be the elixir, fortifying Dalit cohesion while Kurmis wield the sceptre of triumph. Yet, in the shadows lurk residual voters; enigmatic outliers defying communal tides whose whispers, oft-ignored in the electoral din, may compose the crescendo of a razor-edged contest.A sense of the groundHaving traversed Purvanchal, Awadh, Rohilkhand, parts of Western UP and Bundelkhand over a three-month period, the pulse of Uttar Pradesh reveals a charged political landscape even with the elections still roughly 18 months away. Unlike the 2017 and 2022 assembly elections, the 2027 contest is shaping up to be extraordinarily close and by far the most bipolar in recent memory. A clear divide between voters on either side is palpable on the ground. In rural areas, issues like reservations, jobs, and voter list controversies take precedence, with ideological “fanboying” taking a backseat. Conversely, in urban seats, party loyalty and ideological fervor often overshadow substantive issues, driving voter preferences.ConclusionThe 2027 saga in Uttar Pradesh will unfurl through this intricate caste arabesque, woven with strategic brilliance. The SP’s 2024 renaissance, now fuelled by the “vote chori” controversy and caste mobilisation, infuses the opposition with celestial vigor, yet the BJP’s dominion over upper castes, Jats, and OBC fragments endures as an adamantine forge. Victory will bloom from soothing voter fears, harmonising alliances, and exquisite nominee curation, particularly among pivotal Kurmis and Dalits. As caste remains the polity’s eternal muse, especially in Uttar Pradesh, the verdict may redraw the contours of sovereignty’s realm, crafting a new epoch in Uttar Pradesh’s storied chronicle.